MLB Playoffs: The 2012 Hunt for October

With the MLB playoffs starting tonight, the NFL has ensured that the average sports fan does not care. I have always felt that baseball’s schedule suffers from America’s new favorite pastime, and that a 100 game season ending during the summer would be a much better idea. Considering how baseball is so statistics oriented, my idea would never work because most season and career records would become unbreakable with so few games to play. However, I maintain that avoiding the overlap with the NFL would be a great idea for Major League Baseball. Regardless of this conflict, I am very excited for what may be the most unpredictable MLB playoffs in recent memory.

Is there better way for both Yankees and Red Sox fans to celebrate the beginning of the playoffs than the firing of Bobby Valentine? From our perspective, the man who always has so much to say finally has to eat his words and suffer unemployment. From Boston’s point of view, their nightmare is finally over and the team can get back on its feet next season. Valentine’s experience was a disaster from the start. One of his first statements as manager was to undermine Jeter’s miracle flip play against Oakland in 2001. Bobby V clearly tried too hard to make himself a part of the rivalry, as opposed to easing into it as the season progressed. Despite everything that is wrong with him, I place all of the blame for this season on the Red Sox management who brought this guy in. Do you blame a gun for firing, or the shooter? Valentine is less of a man and more of an object that Boston’s decision makers should have had no affiliation with. They enabled a person who simply is a certain way. Bobby Valentine is a child, and we should not blame him for being put in a situation that needed an adult. Much like signing Chad Johnson, teams bring these consequences on themselves. As for teams still playing, the playoff races were among the best in history this season. I am personally against the new rule that installed a one game playoff in each league between two wildcard teams. I do not think it is fair that a baseball team can be eliminated from the playoffs with one loss. However, I cannot deny what this new rule did for the division races. The Yankees developed an entirely new sense of urgency to win the AL East and avoid that one game playoff. Regardless of how I feel about it, the MLB has clearly figured something out with this new format. I still believe that it can be improved though, such as making the wildcard round a best of three series. The Braves are a full six games ahead of the Cardinals, who should not even be in the playoffs, but Atlanta can be eliminated tonight after one game.

I do not think I have ever been so clueless on a given playoff picture. Considering how wrong picks are when things are clear, I can only imagine how this plays out for me. Without overthinking things too much, my gut tells me to look for the Tigers and Giants to meet in the World Series, where the Tigers emerge victorious. They have the Triple Crown winner, enough depth in their lineup around him, and arguably the best ace in baseball on the mound. The Giants have by far the best five man rotation, especially since the Nationals made the horrible decision to shut down Stephen Strasburg. I refuse to pick any team playing in the one game playoffs because there are simply too many variables. The Rangers have been in a tailspin for some time, I still cannot buy into the Orioles as a legitimate championship contender, another magical run for the Cardinals is very unlikely and the Braves just do not seem to have enough to compete with elite teams.

Among teams that will definitely be in the real playoffs, things get much more confusing. I have been selling Nationals stock because I do not like the attitude they developed during the tough Strasburg decisions. Shutting him down for the season is a move for their future, but what position is a baseball team from Washington in to assume they have a future in the playoffs? Once the Phillies get back on their feet, this team will become irrelevant. I do not want them to be rewarded for a decision that I so fundamentally disagree with, so consider that disqualification personal. This leaves the Reds and Giants as my two National League favorites. I believe the winner of that matchup will move on to the World Series. For me, San Francisco has the slight advantage. Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner were fantastic this season, and just imagine if Tim Lincecum returns to the form we are used to. Losing Melky Cabrera is tough, but Buster Posey and company should be enough to consistently manufacture runs. Their Brian Wilson-less bullpen is a major concern, especially when matched up against Cincinnati’s Aroldis Chapman. This comparative weakness may become a problem, but the closer by committee concept was enough to fend of the Los Angeles Dodgers down the home stretch. I have faith in the Giants rotation, which can be the driving force behind a National League championship run.

In the American league, I have already ruled out Baltimore. They have been very impressive and can win any game that stays close in the late innings. However, I think we will look back at the 2012 Orioles and define them as the team that helped the Yankees prepare for the playoffs. They really have been great for us and have restored a lot of my Yankee playoff faith. Without Boston, someone had to keep us honest, and they did a great job at doing so. The Oakland A’s have been quite a story with such huge contributions from inexperienced players, but I think that may catch up to them against teams heading for a championship. I think the Rangers will move on to the second round but their play in the second half of the season leaves me no reason to believe they will take out the remaining American League powerhouses. I want to take the Yankees and the league’s best lineup, but their pitching is too much of a question mark for me. Beyond CC Sabathia, I trust no one completely. Hiroki Kuroda has been great, but he and CC need to be near perfect in order to make this work. Ivan Nova is capable but relies heavily on run support to win, which is far from granted in the playoffs. Andy Pettitte is a playoff warhorse, but is far from last decade’s Andy Pettitte. I like the Yankees a lot, but not enough to alter my Tigers prediction. Everything seems to be lining up for Detroit after a narrow division win and Miguel Cabrera’s baseball immortality. Their record was by far the worst of the American League playoff teams, but Verlander is the only pitcher on any surviving team who I think may win every single one of his playoff starts. Despite the Yankees’ many weapons, the Tigers have the best one two batting punch with Cabrera and Fielder. These three players are enough to make a championship run, and Detroit’s supporting cast is not so bad either.

In my opinion, baseball is the hardest sport to predict in any one game. As these games string together, you have the Cardinals 2011 championship run. Anything can happen in any sport that isn’t the NBA, but the MLB is a different animal when it comes to parody. ESPN’s JA Adande made one of my favorite arguments of all time on today’s Around the Horn. You have lockouts in nearly every major sport over a variety of issues. However, one ongoing issue has been enforcing salary caps to create more parity between teams. Depending on tonight’s results, more than half of the playoff teams may be in the bottom half of the MLB’s pay roll. Leave it to the sport with no salary cap to be the fairest of them all. For anyone who talks about the Yankees buying rings, mull that one over. Or just look at where the Red Sox and Mets went with all their money. Or look at the Dodgers win percentage before and after spending all that money (.543 before, .471 after). Baseball is a nightmare to predict, but I do like my two World Series teams if I have to put my money on someone.

In my World Series between San Francisco and Detroit, I have the Tigers winning it all. While San Francisco has the better overall pitching of the two, their lineup is not as much of a guaranteed success and may struggle to score runs in the final few games. Cabrera and Fielder will simply never stop hitting, and I cannot pick against a team that gets guaranteed wins from one pitcher. They may not have the best all-around team, but the Tigers have a few essential pieces that can carry this team. If there are any unexpected contributions from role players, Detroit can run away with this post season. I may not like the new wildcard round, but I admit that it does make for great television. Like I hope most of you do as well, I look forward to tonight’s elimination games as the hunt for October begins.

NFL Quarterly Report: Weeks 1-4

Needless to say, the first four weeks of the NFL flew by. The endless wait for football is always met with a blinding rush of big plays, fascinating storylines and, of course, some controversy. Before you know it, we are now heading into week five. The first four games are so significant because we now have a feel for which teams are moving in which direction. We have been presented with just enough of a body of work to make valid points about this season, but there is still so much left of the mystery to unravel in upcoming weeks. For this reason, week five may be my favorite week outside of week one. Today, we are going to recap what we have seen so far and maybe make some points about the future as well.

The unfortunate highlight of this season so far has been the labor dispute between the NFL and their referees. Thankfully, this has been solved, but it did harm a good portion of the NFL season. My opinion on the notorious replacement refs is somewhat atypical because I have hated officials for years. To me, replacements were only going to continue to make the mistakes that the overrated Ed Hochuli and company have been making for years now. For this reason, I was not concerned when I learned that the NFL season would begin without the usual cast of officials. Part of me was right to not worry, but another side was dreadfully wrong. I have grown tired of hearing about the Packers-Seahawks Monday Night Football debacle. The call was clearly wrong and Green Bay got robbed. It was heartwarming to see fans and players turn on Roger Goodell, which I did long ago when he fined James Harrison more than America’s average household income in one season. That much was fun, but seeing these “real refs” serenaded from crowds everywhere upon their return last week was just pathetic and sickening.

After the return of our referees, the Giants almost stole a game from the Eagles after some rough defensive pass interference calls, and the same Green Bay Packers suffered a call that I insist was far worse than the call in Seattle. Darren Sproles fumbled a kickoff return and I swear the refs called him down by contact only because they could not determine who recovered the fumble, which was the Packers by the way. Every referee knows that a close call should always be called a turnover because fumbles and interceptions are automatically reviewed now. If Sproles was down and they called fumble, the Saints do not have to do anything and the play will be overturned. Instead, the Packers get ripped off again. The only reason this did not blow up was 1. The replacements were not there and 2. The game’s outcome was not ultimately changed because of it. We never hear the end of a bad call from a replacement, but when Gene Steratore makes that same call we hear about how hard refereeing is. My point is that the everyday referees make equally egregious errors. Where I was wrong to welcome replacement refs came in the form of procedural errors. Taking forever to spot the ball, mixing up teams or players and not understanding certain penalties are not mistakes you see from the pompous pinstripes that now grace fans with their presence. I may not love them, but at least they keep the game moving. If human error can go back to being our only officiating issue, we can all be at some degree of peace.

Now for the fun stuff from what has been an exciting start to this season. In my last articles, I methodically went on a division by division journey, but for this quarterly report summarizing the first four weeks I would rather jump around between a few standouts. The Jets have to be the worst 2-2 team in history. I cannot fully understand how their offense put such an epic beatdown on Buffalo and then fell off the face of the Earth. This team defines dysfunctional and the season ending injuries to Darrelle Revis and Santonio Holmes can only make things worse for them. On the other hand, they do sit atop the division at this very moment alongside one of the best 2-2 teams in history. The Patriots seem to be getting it together now as their dynamic offense creates turnover opportunities for their otherwise incapable defense. My Steelers will fade fast if they do not get healthy now, and Joe Flacco seems to still be riding the spoiled wave that his excellent team in Baltimore provides for him. My Chiefs prediction is looking just fantastic out west and Peyton’s Broncos seem to have some potential. I do not have enough faith in Denver to win it all, but they are a team that can upset one of the more legitimate contenders at some point. The juggernauts still lie in Baltimore and New England, but they do have their flaws. The Ravens, despite what they may tell you, lack an elite quarterback and the Patriots still do not play much defense. Speaking of flaws, I still cannot seem to find one in Houston. Is there one thing the Texans cannot do? They are efficient through the air, elite on the ground, and play excellent defense. I feel that more elite competition will bring them down to Earth, but until then let us enjoy the most dominant team in football right now.

The NFC is even more interesting to me. You have a completely revamped edition of what was the worst division in NFL history in the NFC West. It is as if the 49ers went around in the offseason teaching everyone how to play defense. The Seahawks bottled up MVP Aaron Rodgers and the Cardinals had Mike Vick drawn and quartered. All of a sudden, every single NFC division has multiple playoff contenders, which is just frightening. Teams like the Saints or Lions must be furious to basically be told by mediocre teams that their playoff chances are dead. With the aforementioned NFC West and teams like the Vikings piling up wins, you simply cannot afford a slow start. Even teams like the Giants or Cowboys at 2-2 are walking a very thin line now. I still believe that Big Blue will figure it out and that the Boys are not going anywhere, but there are many more variables than we expected from the superior conference. The Falcons are the NFC’s Texans and seem to have no flaws whatsoever. It will take a team that is simply better to beat them because they will not beat themselves. The Packers and 49ers are the NFC’s Patriots and Ravens, respectively. For this reason, I have not been sold on either Atlanta or Houston making a championship run. They may be the most complete teams, but you have to be the best in at least one major area to win it all. The Saints are a stunning 0-4, but I still believe they will finish second to the Falcons. The Panthers and Buccaneers both look terrible and, while it may no longer equate to a playoff appearance, look for the Saints to make enough of a surge to take second place in the NFC South. It seems the loss of Sean Payton for the season will be a crushing one, but I always love to see what teams do in the face of such adversity.

In contrast to the overblown replacement referees, there was one tragedy from the regular season’s first quarter that did not get nearly enough attention. Steve Sabol, the legendary president and founder of NFL Films, passed away after a battle with brain cancer dating back to March of 2011. What continues to amaze me is how someone could impact my life so much when, I confess, I did not actually know his name until the news of his death. While I am now among the world’s elite in the department of love for the NFL product, I was a late bloomer in terms of football fanaticism. My first NFL season ended with the electrifying shootout between the Patriots and Panthers in Super Bowl XXXVIII (38). Most fans my age remember Kevin Dyson stretching for the biggest Super Bowl upset that never was as the Rams took down the Titans at the turn of the millennium. For this reason, my love for football came largely from NFL films in a roughly one month viewing of NFL history. I, along with any fan since Sabol’s creation, had the privilege of witnessing the greatest presentation of any material in professional sports. NFL films elevated the sport above all others and, in my opinion, were what solidified football’s spot atop the sports world in America. My understanding of and love for the game may have been enriched through my years of watching live games, but the foundation was built from this revolutionary method of NFL transparency. While we may be without Steve Sabol, his legacy will live on for generations as the NFL films machine lives on. The NFL reigns supreme in the world of entertainment, and they have him to thank for it.

The NFL Eightfold Path: NFC East

Throughout the past two weeks, we have gone on a division by division journey in the hopes of truly understanding how the NFL is set up this season and how each team is looking as week one approaches. We started with the NFC West, where I had the 49ers repeating as division champs without much trouble. We then moved on to the AFC West, where I had the Chiefs surprising Peyton’s Broncos, who still advanced as a wildcard. In the NFC North, the Packers took care of business despite tough competition and the Bears moved on as an NFC wild card. The AFC North saw the Ravens and Steelers limp faster than Bengals could run as both held off their young rivals and made the playoffs. The Texans dominated the AFC South as the remaining three teams failed to reach winning records. The NFC South saw a shift in the balance of power as the Falcons overtook the Saints after Cam Newton had his signature win in week 17. Both New Orleans and Atlanta moved on to the playoffs, which can only mean one thing. The NFC East has traditionally been the best division in football, but last season the Giants won it with only nine wins. This season, the group as a whole will look to improve on last year’s effort, but I only see one moving on to playoff competition. It has become a bold statement to limit this division to one playoff team, but the rest of the NFC has caught up to the East, and these are not the old days when the Giants and company led the NFC’s only great division. With all that said, our NFL Eightfold Path stays home for our final destination as we figure out who wins this thing.

4. Redskins: Robert Griffin III is the X factor here who will almost single handedly guide Washington to wins or losses. I do believe in RG3, but what we are asking of him goes above and beyond where the rest of his team is ready to go. The Redskins did have a competitive defense last season but, with improved offenses around them, I think that will be put to the test. The defense that Washington fans take for granted as they hope for an improved offense may be ripped out from under them despite however many sacks Brian Orakpo can pile up. Mike Shanahan continues to stretch whatever good will his two career rings still hold for him and has helped lead this team straight into the ground with dysfunctional relationships and poor decisions. The Redskins, however, may be a very legitimate last place team in terms of playing spoiler against division rivals. Their last two games are against the Eagles and Cowboys, respectively, and I predict that everyone in New York will be big fans of the Washington Redskins by the time this regular season ends. RG3 will have an important place in this league, but he will not see this playoffs this season.

3. Cowboys: Every season, the Cowboys are somebody’s Super Bowl prediction, and I have no idea why. They have talent, but are not the most talented team. And we all know how well they play from December through the playoffs. For whatever reason, every ESPN talking head wants to be the person who predicts the return of the championship Cowboys. I like this team’s talent as much as anyone, but there is way too much uncertainty to have them in the playoffs in this great conference, let alone any Super Bowl talk. Dez Bryant is a walking red flag, Jason Witten has no spleen, and Romo will likely be as unreliable as ever despite his abilities. Also, I cannot pick a team to win its division when they have had so much trouble beating the two teams ahead of them. Superman is great too but, in a division against Kryptonite Thing 1 and 2, I do not love his chances. The secondary has taken huge strides and this defense will be what Rob Ryan’s squad was supposed to be last season. However, the nature of this team is still susceptible to blown leads and other laughable errors that will prevent them from reaching their full potential. Dallas is not the most talented team in this division and they are also not the most clutch. Those two teams are why I have them finishing third.

2. Eagles: I would have this team winning the division if I had more faith in Mike Vick’s health. With him playing all season, I say this team loses three games and earns themselves a bye week. However, if he loses three games and plays ten or twelve, this team loses enough ground to settle for second. In my scenario, this misses the playoffs. Mike Vick either needs to be healthy for an entire season, which is unlikely, or they need to be perfect while he is playing, which is also unlikely. Much like last season, Philly will be the team that no one wants to make the playoffs because of how high their highs can be. Fortunately for those teams, I do not believe they will. LeSean McCoy has emerged as an elite runner and I expect a stronger season from Desean Jackson, who can stop complaining now that he has his money. There will be games leaving experts saying this is the Eagles’ year to win it all, but their downfall will be the need to string those games together. You cannot ask Vick to be conservative while still being effective; he has to put himself in harm’s way in order to be one of the most dangerous weapons in football. Unfortunately, that leads Philadelphia to walk a thin line between dream team and nightmare. Their talent is greater than Dallas’, but there is just as much risk. It takes a sure thing to beat these two talented yet unpredictable teams.

1. Giants: Last time the Giants won it all, they got off to a hot start the following season, which came crashing down after an unexpected Monday Night Football loss to the Cleveland Browns. They hung on long enough to earn a bye week, but lost in the divisional round to none other than the Philadelphia Eagles. They ran out of gas at the wrong time, but this team is different. They are seasoned veterans when it comes to winning a championship and will be more prepared than they were for their last adventure. Michael Strahan and Amani Toomer retiring was a tough adjustment for the Giants to make. Losing two “old reliable” types may have hurt their chances in the postseason. This season, they have only lost a declining Brandon Jacobs. I like David Wilson to back up Ahmad Bradshaw once AB injures his foot. Look for huge contributions from their dynamic receiving duo of Hakeem Nicks and the salsa dancing Victor Cruz, but also keep an eye out for Martellus Bennett. The Giants have always made tight ends look great in their system, and the “Black Unicorn” will be no exception. If his self-awarded nickname is any indication, he will at least be interesting to watch, but Eli will make him feel right at home in a place where mediocre tight ends look like superstars. This is Eli’s first season starting off as an elite quarterback, and I expect him to be the one factor that gives the Giants some separation from their rivals. Notice how the criticism for the previous three QBs involved us not knowing what to expect due to some inconsistencies. Eli has become a model of consistency and reliability, and who knew we would say that after only a few seasons ago. As I mentioned in my AFC West article, people are done saying the Giants “could have had Phillip Rivers.” The relentless pass rush from big blue is almost effortless with the best pass rushing defensive line of the past decade. Their four horsemen of the apocalypse give a questionable secondary a lot of leeway. There may not be a repeat champion this season, but I do like the G-Men to win this tough division.

The Redskins are actually the main reason I did not give a wildcard spot to the Cowboys or Eagles. In this division, teams beat each other up too much and may eventually be passed up by wildcards from other divisions. RG3 could be that guy to bring down another team’s hopes, which is as satisfying as it gets for a team with a losing record. In a division with so many question marks, I choose to go with the one sure thing. The Giants identity is solidified by their pass rush and Eli’s outstanding leadership by example (sorry Tiki). New York has quietly become like the Steelers or Patriots in the sense that their system speaks for itself and, while a few pieces change, the constants carry the team to victory. Lastly, I do not want to get too into this aspect of the game but I am stunned by how much the Cowboys have trash talked their way to this season opener. And you wonder why everyone outside of your actual fans hates you. For one thing, they have absolutely no reason to justify this talk and, secondly, giving the defending champions additional motivation for the season opener has to be the dumbest thing since the last thing Jerry Jones said. I know that there is no rooting in the press box, but I hope JPP, Tuck and Osi rip Romo apart tonight. The NFL Eightfold Path was an inspiring idea, but I think the entire point of enlightenment is that we are never fully there. We may experience it, but the process of getting there is perpetual. Throughout this season, we will check in on our teams and predictions; this eight part series was living proof that there is no such thing as too much football talk. For right now, however, let us celebrate the return of America’s favorite game.

The NFL Eightfold Path: AFC East

If I had to bet everything I own on one division winner, it would be the New England Patriots. There is no reason to believe that the Patriots will face much competition in another predictable regular season ending in home field advantage and eventual playoff disappointment. The only question for them is whether or not they can break from that formula and revert to the champions of Brady’s earlier years. What lies behind them is interesting but somewhat anticlimactic as well. The three teams can end up in any order, but at the same time I do not expect any of them to make the playoffs. There is reason to believe in each team following New England, but I like Denver and Pittsburgh as more likely wildcards. It seems as if the only way to the playoffs is to follow the blueprints made by the Dolphins the year the wildcat was brought to the NFL. Someone has to take a few risks and hope for a few lucky breaks in return.

4. Dolphins: I always look more favorably towards the team that receives HBO’s Hard Knocks because, as a fan, I feel involved in their training camp experience. The insider’s look at what goes on behind closed doors can make any team more appealing to viewers. Sadly, Miami just does not have enough going on to convince me that they can consistently put up points or stop other teams from doing just that. They have individual playmakers, such as the always powerful Cameron Wake or the emergence of Reggie Bush, who has the ability to carry this offense if he stays healthy. Between Ryan Tannehill and a disappointing receiving core, the Dolphins’ offense will not be able to get off the ground. While Reggie has come a long way, he still is not a workhorse. In an easy division, the Dolphins can squeak out a few wins to stay out of the NFL basement, but it is going to be a tough season in Miami.

3. Bills: Most people feel the Bills will be the runner up in this division and may be the only team that can give New England a fight. I understand their reasoning because outside of the Patriots, the Bills actually have the division’s best quarterback, running back, and receiver all on the same offense. With the addition of elite pass rusher Mario Williams, the Buffalo defense should be a force to be reckoned with as well. All signs lead to a strong showing from the Bills except one. It is a pretty underwhelming reason, but a hunch tells me to not overreact to the Buffalo Bills looking pretty good. Every season, the Bills seem to look great and start the season with a 4-0 record or something of that nature. Then, they fade dramatically and are ultimately a six win team. This season, anything less than 4-0 should mean disaster for a team that is known to lose momentum as the season goes on. The Bills are finally competitive on paper, but I still cannot associate this organization with a winning record. After all, the Ryan Fitzpatrick and Stevie Johnson connection has been there for years. Despite the great signing of Williams, the team as a whole is not very different at all. Sure, if the Jets score zero touchdowns this year then Buffalo will have a clear path at second place. However, I still say the Bills end up in the third spot.

2. Jets: The Jets may have the worst offense in football and their team as a whole is a walking circus. We get it, and there is no degree of Jets criticism that we have not already heard. What we have not heard as often is what I would like to focus on first, which is the resurgence of Rex Ryan’s defense. The lack of a pass rush has hurt the Jets defense as a whole and has eased them out of the elite category. However, I think role players such as Aaron Maybin and first round draft pick Quentin Coples will generate enough pressure to let the league’s best secondary lock down opposing receivers. Bart Scott and David Harris are the best middle linebacker combination outside of San Francisco. They and a solid defensive line can stuff the run while the young edge rushers make names for themselves. I think the Jets defense is set to make a return to what we saw a couple of years ago when Rex first arrived. Sanchez and the offense are obviously a train wreck, which is why the Jets still cannot catch the Patriots this season, but their defense is better than either Buffalo unit. If the offense can limit their turnovers and live with being mediocre, they will accidentally score enough points for that defense to win games.

1. Patriots: Even with a historically bad defense, there is nothing stopping the Patriots from casually winning another fourteen games this season. Opposing teams simply cannot keep up with their machine of an offense and repeatedly turn the ball over when they try doing so. I am most likely alone on this one, but I believe Tom Brady has gotten worse over the years. During his championship runs, he would spread the ball out and made the New England offense as unpredictable as it was effective. Now, Brady has severe tunnel vision for two targets with Welker and Gronkowski, especially in clutch situations. He can easily fix this, but the dependence on these two pass catchers makes the Patriots not easy to stop, but at least easy to figure out. This allowed the creation of a formula that could actually defeat them, but only the Giants seem to have it figured out and executed it. The first requirement is that you have a good pass rush without blitzing. The pressure created by the basic four man rush creates a need for a quick release from Brady, but he has no problem with this. After all, his options are a wide receiver that runs five yard routes and a tight end that runs ten yard routes. The Pats have lacked any threat beyond these distances, so the Giants stack most of their coverage in the five to ten yard range, creating a smokescreen of G-Men for Brady to throw into. Only one or two guys stay deep just in case, which is enough of a safety net to prevent a big play from a small play team. While the Pats seem intricate, they only operate within the hash marks of a five to ten yard depth, which is a grand approximate total of 60 yards. Each of the Giants in this area only have about 15 yards of surface area to cover, which is not exactly challenging to a professional linebacker or safety. This is very limiting to New England’s offense, even for someone with Brady’s accuracy. When the Giants give Brady so little time to throw into such a small and crowded window, you get the biggest upsets in NFL history. Beating the Pats defense is then easy. Just show up.

I know I went more into the Patriots’ scheme than their actual chances this season, but that is because their path is obvious. They will win the AFC East and we will measure their success by their fate in the playoffs. The addition of Brandon Lloyd may help defeat the formula, but even with him there Brady has to make the conscious effort to get him involved. The only twist ending would be if a team without Eli Manning 1. figures this winning formula out and 2. can actually do it. The AFC East is a mystery beyond this point, but I have faith in the Jets’ ability to be defined by their strengths instead of their weaknesses. It has become popular to mock them, probably because the combined efforts of Sanchez and Tebow are pretty funny. But I believe the defensive one trick pony will follow its offensive counterpart in these standings. The Bills are not quite there yet as whole, and I fear another potentially strong start will go to waste in upstate New York. As a whole, this division is one Patriots away from being among the lowest of the low. I am happy to say that for our final stop on my NFL Eightfold Path seeks to reclaim its title as the NFL’s best division. They took a hit in the 2011 regular season but eventually emerged from a thick veil of mediocrity with a Super Bowl champion. For our final stop, we will pay the defending champion Giants a visit and, hopefully, achieve football enlightenment.

The NFL Eightfold Path: NFC South

The NFC South is primarily known for its quarterbacks and its parody. Teams have frequently been able to go from worst to first despite tough competition. I cannot say the Bucs are prepared to do this, but the fact remains that this division is no stranger to surprises. The Saints’ bounty scandal and suspensions level the playing field and chip away at the supreme level of talent in New Orleans, but whether or not it will be enough to dethrone the division champs remains to be seen. Cam Newton is certainly a fun story but, in order to progress as a player, his NFL relevance will have to equal his fantasy football importance. There is a big leap between being a great player on a bad team and elevating that team to playoff contention. The Falcons had a solid season brought to a violent end by the eventual Super Bowl champions, and will compete with the remaining two underdogs to chase after the room left by the Saints’ disastrous offseason.

4. Buccaneers: Based on the eye test alone, I believe this was the worst team in football last season. They may not have had the worst record, but their play and effort were nonexistent throughout the second half of the season. Josh Freeman’s development took a huge step backwards and I could not even get a fair read on their defense because they were so apathetic. With Vincent Jackson bringing some life back into Freeman’s passing offense, I am sure Tampa will be more respectable as a team, but their record may be just as bad. I wish there was more to say about the Buccaneers, but in this division and conference they simply do not stack up well enough to be competitive. In the NFC, there are few easy wins, and the Bucs are one of them.

3. Panthers: Cam Newton pieced together the most impressive personal rookie season in NFL history. He was the downfall of the Green Bay defense, dominated both the air and ground, and single handedly revived Steve Smith’s dynamic career. The key word behind his accomplishments is personal because while he did make the Panthers better, it still felt like more of a fantasy football exhibition than a team making a playoff push. Last year, I had the Panthers as the second best NFL offseason, next to only the “dream team” Eagles. Not only did I have faith in Cam, but the moves made to hang onto their talent and bring in some new free agents were impressive to me as well. With all this said, I was clearly on the Carolina bandwagon, however this year’s perceived playoff chances may be a slight overreaction. I still see Newton and company as an eight win team, which would be another improvement. Despite being third here, the Panthers are certainly trending in the right direction. The return of John Beason at middle linebacker will single handedly fix most of their defensive issues. He is basically Pat Willis on a lesser team. With Williams and Stewart joining Cam’s ground efforts, Carolina can definitely lead the NFL in rushing, which would be great for the other aspects of this very promising team.

2. Saints: Drew Brees shattered records last season and should be a guarantee to win almost any division by himself. In addition to this record setting aerial assault, the Saints quietly have an excellent and versatile running game as well. With Pierre Thomas as the consistency, Darren Sproles for big plays, and an undetermined amount of production from a now healthy Mark Ingram, this team would win half of their games with a terrible quarterback. The biggest story here is obviously the bounty scandal and the suspensions that stripped New Orleans of a defensive coordinator, a head coach, a middle linebacker and everyone else affected by a process that I may or may not despise. While the commissioner’s habits are for another day, we are forced to move on taking into account these penalties. At face value, the Saints still have what makes them dominant. Their many offensive weapons are still intact, however in a strong division there may be more to winning than firepower. Allegedly, Sean Payton is the NFL’s best and most intricate play caller. I am sure Drew Brees and what is left of the coaching staff can piece something effective together, but I cannot imagine a repeat of last season without Payton calling the shots. Without the head coach that built this phenomenal offense, we can expect at least a slight dip in production. Without a shutdown defense, this slight decrease on offense may be enough to give the division away to a more complete team.

1. Falcons: Complete is the first word that comes to mind when I think of the Atlanta Falcons. Michael Turner has made them one of the best ground and pound teams in the NFL, and he now has the luxury of Matt Ryan’s one-two punch of receivers. Roddy White and Julio Jones can take the NFL’s best wide receiver duo title this season. Anytime someone as elite as Roddy White may lose his number one receiver spot to a young player that the team essentially traded the General Manager’s house for, you know you have something special. Defensively, Atlanta has playmakers but has always been one dominant middle linebacker away from being as complete on defense as they are on offense. I always wanted to photoshop John Beason onto their roster to just see what happens. Either way, Atlanta has what it takes to win this division because they are finally becoming as dynamic as they are balanced. Turner may be aging but, with those two outside weapons, he is about to receive a lot more room to run. Matt Ryan is not elite, but has always been able to maintain a great offense as long as the pieces are already in place. My main concern with this team is their dramatic decrease in performance once the playoffs arrive. They are the only team in this division to not appear in a Super Bowl in the past decade. From Mike Vick’s era to Matt Ryan’s, they can seemingly never reach the Promised Land. Maybe part of it is just bad luck when you consider the fact that their last two eliminations were to eventual Super Bowl champions. Despite this coincidence, I do not give them a break. Anyone with the awful nickname “Matty Ice” should be able to elevate his play in the biggest games, especially now that his supporting cast is fantastic. I have the Falcons winning this division, but the regular season has never exactly been their problem.

I briefly mentioned NFC South quarterbacks earlier, and I would someday like to find which division really is the best collection of four quarterbacks. My first impression is between here and the NFC East, but when the time comes it could be anyone according to the numbers. In terms of this season’s results, I do think the Saints may lose control of this division, but I still expect them to advance to the playoffs. This would leave the last spot to a fight between the winner of the Bears-Lions conflict and the NFC East runner up. I may not have given Carolina as much credit as people would expect after the progress they made last season, but I do believe Cam Newton will determine the winner of this division when they play the Saints in week 17. That one game may be all that separates the two top teams if Cam is able to upset Drew Brees and a limping New Orleans Saints. Next time, we have finally made our way home on our NFL path of enlightenment. It is almost time to play the yearly game of figuring out the order of the AFC East teams behind the Patriots.

The NFL Eightfold Path: AFC South

The AFC South will be nominated for the honor of the NFL’s worst division. The Colts carried the struggling group for years with occasional appearances from the Jaguars or Titans. Now, however, the shadow cast by Peyton Manning over the remaining three teams is gone, leaving room for a new perennial division champion. Last season, the traditionally terrible Texans answered this call and became the AFC’s best team before eventually being brought down hard by multiple injuries. In 2012-13, we get to find out whether or not their success is temporary. In a foursome that will almost certainly be held to one playoff team, winning the division becomes even more crucial. I took a week off to settle back at school, but now it is time to rapid fire these last few divisions before Wednesday night kickoff in MetLife.

4. Colts: Andrew Luck’s potential is almost enough to sneak Indy up to third place in my projections, but there was a lot more missing from this team than Peyton Manning last season. The Colts used to get away with an underwhelming running game or defense because one of history’s greatest players would baby them to victory. Luck will be a serviceable replacement, but he will need more help than Peyton ever required to push this mediocre team into playoff contention. I do believe that the Colts were never the NFL’s worst team and simply suffered from the shock value of Manning’s injury, especially when they started the season expecting a return at some point. This season should be better, but their clear intentions are to slowly rebuild behind the slow and steady development of the pieces they currently have in place. Donald Brown is a decent enough weapon to support Luck and Reggie Wayne’s career is not quite over yet, so there is reason to believe that the Colts do not have reservations for last place this season. While I am not sold enough to rank them above any of the next three teams, Luck is capable of as many as seven wins this season.

3. Jaguars: With Maurice Jones-Drew leading the NFL in rushing last season, the Jags still finished the season with the NFL’s worst offense. This off-season’s holdout stressed the importance of an improvement from sophomore quarterback Blaine Gabbert. To me, Gabbert was the NFL’s worst starting QB last season. He has actually looked good throughout the preseason, but I try not to overreact to exhibition play. I am sure he will not be as bad, but a huge problem for Jacksonville will be if Mojo is not as good. Historically, players who hold out over contract disputes are less durable and, ultimately, less productive. If Jones-Drew struggles or is anything less than healthy and spectacular, Gabbert and company may be in for a long season. Expect a more balanced attack from the Jags, but not a much more effective one. The Jaguars quietly have a strong defense and Justin Blackmon appears to have potential as a playmaking receiver, so they have enough to finish ahead of a team that is going through a compete rebuilding phase. However, the playoffs are most likely out of the question here as well.

2. Titans: In contrast to the holdout point made about Mojo, Tennessee’s Chris Johnson seems to be set up for a huge season. Last year, he suffered career lows in most statistical categories, which was likely a consequence of not showing up at training camp and demanding a bigger contract. This season, we can expect a more typical CJ2K effort, especially with a rookie-led offense that will rely on Johnson’s production. I would not consider the Titans among the legitimate playoff contenders despite the impressive push they made towards the end of last season. Jake Locker’s decision making is still questionable and Kenny Britt’s health is not trustworthy enough to assume Tennessee will have weapons outside of Chris Johnson. Defensively, they are a far cry from the Titans that had Albert Haynesworth in his prime. That team used to dominate the line of scrimmage and dictate the pace of the game. Now, they lack playmakers and Locker may find himself in a few uncomfortable shootouts that will make him more vulnerable to mistakes. Once this Tennessee team falls behind and loses the ability to consistently run the ball, they will struggle to keep up with better teams.

1. Texans: I believe Houston will be the only team in the AFC South to win more than eight games. They have become an elite team that, like New England, benefits from having six very winnable games from division rivalries. With arguably the best all-around running back in football, Arian Foster, the impressive connection between Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson is almost overlooked now. If they can stay healthy, the Texans are in a great position to make a Super Bowl run. They may have lost Mario Williams this off-season to Buffalo, but they won games last season without him and other key players who will be returning. JJ Watt serves as their new defensive anchor and is more than capable of creating similar chaos for opposing quarterbacks. Houston has no real weakness; they just have to become more exceptional in order to improve after last season’s strong effort against a lot of adversity. Their passing game has to be at least close to the threat of their running game, which would make them nearly unstoppable. The Texans should run away with this division, the only question is whether or not they have enough to win it all.

The AFC South will likely be dominated by one team yet again, but this time Peyton’s Colts have handed the keys over to Matt Schaub’s Texans. Houston needs to take advantage of this division’s weakened state and seize the opportunity they have been given. The only remaining mystery is whether the Titans or another likely contender have what it takes to push another team out of the playoff picture. Tomorrow, we will look at what is traditionally the NFL’s most unpredictable division. This will include an exiled coach, some massive underachievers and an attempt to live up to a rookie season for the ages.

The NFL Eightfold Path: AFC North

The AFC North review carries a different tone than most of the divisions we have covered. The two perennially elite teams have taken huge hits that suggest at least a minor regression this season. In Pittsburgh, the injuries are already piling up and picking up from where last season left off. Mendenhall, Redman, Harrison, Hampton, DeCastro, and Roethlisberger all enter the season at under 100% healthy. Even if nothing else goes wrong, this will be a tough season for them. The terrible offensive line play shows little hope for improvement and new offensive coordinator Todd Haley’s system may not get a fair chance because of it. In Baltimore, the defensive player of the year has been lost for the entire season (Terrell Suggs). Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are both one year older and are dangerously close to the end of their careers. Offensively, there is not much hope outside of Ray Rice and maybe the emergence of Torrey Smith. Joe Flacco depends on factors that are currently weakening before him. The biggest question is where the Bengals finish against two vulnerable veterans of the AFC North. The Browns are still worlds behind, but there is plenty up in the air between three major playoff contenders.

4. Browns: There is not much to analyze about a team among the NFL’s worst struggling to compete alongside some of the NFL’s best. Because of the comparative weakness of this conference as a whole, the next three teams are all actually legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Cleveland, on the other hand, has been in a rebuilding phase for as long as I can remember. Maybe Brandon Weeden is the answer at quarterback, Trent Richardson can be a beast that carries the offense, and Josh Cribbs finally establishes some consistency alongside his big play ability. However, even with these issues successfully addressed, the Browns do not have enough to compete with and eventually win this division. Maybe once the great Steelers and Ravens all retire they can make a run for it against Cincinnati, but Cleveland’s championship breakthrough does not look like it will come in the NFL, or anywhere for that matter.

3. Bengals: I cannot pretend to be sure about the order of the three quality teams in this division. The only reason I do not have the Bengals higher, despite the previously stated flaws of the remaining two teams, is because I just do not feel they have enough to make that leap forward. Andy Dalton, for whatever reason, seems more vulnerable to the classic sophomore slump than Cam Newton. Benjarvus Green-Ellis is a nice runner to have, but has never really been relied on as the primary source of offense. Despite Dalton and star receiver AJ Green’s production last season, the Bengals’ mindset was always run first. Coming from New England, I have not seen enough from Green-Ellis to trust that he can take that kind of workload. We may finally see his first professional fumble this year, along with a few struggles that come with being a true work horse like injuries or fatigue. If the offense responds to this by shifting to a more pass heavy system, my sophomore slump prediction then comes into play. With more responsibility and only Jermaine Gresham as a quality target to throw to once Green is double covered, Dalton may have more trouble this season. Their defense is healthy and capable but not elite or great enough to compare to even a limping defense from Baltimore or Pittsburgh.

2. Steelers: The tough playoff loss for my Steelers was an excellent preview of what things may be like in Pittsburgh throughout 2012-13. Injuries and age have hit this team harder than any other in football and somehow, they have yet to fully pay the price for it. Last season carried similar criticisms, especially for Dick LeBeau’s defensive unit, which somehow ended the season as the NFL’s number one defense. The Steelers, more than any other team, are defined by their system. Take their careless attitude towards losing talented players as a great example of how they do business. Plaxico Burress and Santonio Holmes were both arguably top ten receivers at the time of their Pittsburgh departure. Despite tough losses on the roster, they always come back just as good if not better than before. The Steelers are going through an interesting transitional phase with Todd Haley now calling the shots on offense, but I trust his system. Pittsburgh does not rebuild, they reload. So long as Big Ben is on offense and Troy Polamalu is on defense, the surrounding pieces will work something out well enough to maintain this team’s identity. The reason I cannot give my team the division title this season is mistakes. We are arguably the most mistake prone team in the NFL because our quarterback would rather die than admit defeat. Ben gets himself in way too much trouble by holding onto the ball for too long, eventually getting sacked and possibly injured. This is also accompanied by many fumbles and ill-advised passes that become interceptions. Another cause of these miscues is the pitiful offensive line. If our defense is the Steel Curtain, the high school level offensive line is the Teflon Curtain. Roethlisberger can outplay Joe Flacco any day and I may even argue that our defense is still superior to Baltimore’s as well, but the unforgivable mistakes will eventually unravel and dismantle my favorite team.

1. Baltimore: In contrast to my last point about Pittsburgh, this Ravens team never seems to make any mistakes. They can be beat by a team that simply has more positives, but Baltimore commits next to zero negatives, which is a huge advantage. While they may not have as many strengths as their rivals, three things keep the Ravens from losing games. First of all, I may look down on Flacco’s ability as a quarterback but he does know how to not screw up. He traditionally does his job well enough for their others pieces to win him the game. The second reason, Ray Rice, is by far the division’s best playmaker. He can carry the Ravens’ offense, hold onto the ball, and consistently make things happen for them so their underwhelming passing game has plenty of leniency. The third factor that brings home this victory is their outstanding offensive line, which is among the league’s best. They prevent the pressure that causes offensive mistakes. While I do have faith in Roethlisberger, everything seems to be working against him and he may or may not survive any given game. Baltimore, however, plays mistake free football and can make enough plays to let a strong defensive effort win games for them. Even without the elite pass rush from Suggs, Lewis and Reed will keep that Ravens defense together and strong enough to win this powerful but limping division.

It seems odd to have no change in the order of last season’s AFC North standings after an offseason in which this division saw so much change. Despite the many moving pieces, I do not feel that any one team made significant enough strides to overtake another. The most likely leap frog would be Cinci taking the runner up spot away from Pittsburgh, but I am not buying Andy Dalton as much as most people are after his promising rookie year. What we may see is a similar order within the AFC North but the division as a whole will not stack up so well against AFC teams with rising stock like the Texans or Broncos. Because the North is traditionally the AFC’s best division, losing ground may only level the playing field. Teams in other divisions will work hard to limit them to only one playoff team this season. While I still believe two will make it, the Steelers and Ravens have a lot to worry about.

The NFL Eightfold Path: NFC North

Round three of our NFL Eightfold path includes, in my opinion, the league’s strongest division. ESPN the Magazine’s latest issue predicted a perfect 19-0 championship season for the Super Bowl favorite Green Bay Packers. Whether or not this is even close to true, having a team with the NFL’s highest projections does bring a huge advantage to the NFC North when it comes to comparing football’s divisions. In addition to the heaviest of heavy hitters, each remaining team has plenty of reasons to be better than last season. The NFC North is the only division that produced multiple playoff teams last year and still has the opportunity to see each of its four teams improve this season (that includes the 15-1 Packers). It is a strong enough group to produce three playoff teams, but the NFC as a whole is just too good to let that happen. It is likely that Detroit and Chicago will fight for the last playoff spot if neither manages to overthrow Green Bay. If so, take a mental note of the week 17 matchup between the Lions and Bears because that may be the regular season’s most significant game in terms of the NFL playoff bubble. Also, for you fantasy players with a week 17 championship, I am sure that Megatron, Stafford, Marshall, Forte, and others involved in such a game want their team in the playoffs.

4. Vikings: Minnesota’s line between mediocre and terrible will be defined by Adrian Peterson’s health. Unfortunately, this variable means more to fantasy football than the NFL. With or without the league’s most talented runner, the Vikings do not have enough to compete with their three division rivals. In order to even capture third place here, Peterson would have to return to full health and Christian Ponder would have to significantly improve from last season with a sub-par receiving core. Defensively, even an improvement would not be enough to baby their young QB. Typically, first or second year starting quarterbacks need an elite defense to flourish, or at least one that comes close. Think of Roethlisberger, Sanchez, Flacco, or how the Bengals were close enough to elite to help out Dalton. Cam Newton is a freak, so this did not apply. Ponder, on the other hand, needs many peripheral aspects of this team to go very well, which is not likely. Jarred Allen can only do so much, even leading the league in sacks does not seem to be enough. Outside of a potentially miraculous recovery from Peterson, which is not guaranteed, nothing provides much of a silver lining for the Vikings. Of course, being better than last season’s 3-13 finish is not a huge task. An improvement does not mean a playoff berth and something as small as staying competitive or spoiling a rival’s season may be all they need to call 2012-13 some form of success. Winning, for example, six games instead of three should be entirely possible, but these next three teams won’t make it easy. Minnesota will have to pile up wins outside of division rivalries if they want to avoid another three win season.

3. Lions: The space between Detroit and Chicago is microscopic, but a few factors swing the decision in favor of the windy city. First of all, the Lions and Raiders have a monopoly in the discipline department, or lack thereof. They led the league in penalties last season together, and the Lions took their violating talents off the field to lead the league in arrests in this off-season. A team trying to win this division cannot afford those mental mistakes. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson have evolved into the league’s best quarterback-receiver combination, narrowly edging out Brady and Welker in my book. A questionable running game, however, makes their offense somewhat one dimensional. Jahvid Best is a valuable weapon who was great when he played last season, but concussions continue to plague his injury ridden career. As a pure cannon, Stafford’s arm is the NFL’s best. With everything else factored in, he is still in the top five at his position. This offense will be great with or without a running game, but their defense keeps them from reaching an elite status as a complete team. Suh and company can rush the passer, but Detroit’s pass coverage and tackling is atrocious. The only chance Detroit has of being a championship defense is if opposing quarterbacks never have a chance to throw the ball, which is unlikely. Suh’s defensive leadership takes a hit because of his immaturity. As a Steelers fan, it would be hypocritical to pretend I do not love huge hits and violent defensive playmakers. However, liking my team taught me the difference between violent and dirty. I hate most roughing the passer calls and side with the pass rushers who more or less have no legal way to go about their business. However, when you go so far as to intentionally step on people, you have crossed the line. Suh’s extracurricular activities take away from his potential and limit his focus. If he fine tunes his style of play, he can lead the way towards better team defense. The Lions’ ceiling is sky high, but most of their team is well behind Stafford and Megatron in the race to excellence.

2. Bears: The Chicago Bears will have something this season that revolutionizes an awful tradition of bad receivers. Brandon Marshall goes from good to fantastic when teamed up with Jay Cutler, who develops tunnel vision as soon as Marshall enters the game. Usually, this is a bad thing for quarterbacks, but this team could use one dominant guy to inhale nearly every target. The Bears have had seven 1,000 yard seasons from receivers since 1970. If the history between these two players is indicative of their future as a couple, Marshall will have more targets than any other receiver in the NFL. His biggest competition will be Welker, who now loses many of his passes to Gronkowski. Calvin Johnson will be up there, but Stafford likes to get other receivers involved despite the obvious talent gap. Guys like Titus Young and Brandon Pettigrew will see plenty of action for Detroit as well. If Marshall’s drops remain a problem, he may still lead the league in receptions. The reason I continue to emphasize the importance of this pair is because while Stafford and Johnson are better as pure players, do not be surprised if the production of this Chicago duo is not far behind. Their chemistry in Denver should continue this season, which is enough to match the efforts of any other aerial connection. What then elevates Chicago over Detroit is both their running game and defense. Matt Forte is one of the NFL’s best and most versatile running backs. His injury kept him from being among the league leaders in yards from scrimmage, but a full recovery should pave the way for a big year. Michael Bush was a great backup who inherited a starting role after McFadden’s injury in Oakland. He has proven that he is a more than capable runner who will likely take most of Chicago’s goal line carries and can cash in on most of them. Defensively, Urlacher’s knee procedure is a concern, but the team and Urlacher continue to insist that the injury is a minor one. All in all, Chicago is a more complete team than Detroit and has the best chance to take down the kings of this division.

1. Packers: I wanted to go bold and pick Chicago to win this division. After all, they manage to give Green Bay great games even when they are not as good a team. A fully loaded Bears could possibly overtake the Packers. However, I remembered a mistake I made during this year’s March Madness. I overthought a way to take down Kentucky and quickly realized that overthinking for the sake of going bold is not healthy. In this case, let’s not overthink it. The Green Bay Packers mocked the regular season in 2011-12 and had to be taken out by the team that absolutely no one should want to face in the playoffs by now. The main reason I feel the Packers will hold off these two huge threats is their defense. Last season, they gave up over 22 points per game and were the league’s 19^th ranked defense in points allowed. In yards allowed, they were 32^nd (dead last). The Packers actually presented, statistically, the worst pass defense in history last season. My recurring theme here is that the Packers were terrible on defense last year. However, a similar defensive roster had average ranks over the previous two seasons of 4.5^th in points allowed and 3.5^th in yards allowed. If you judge this Packers’ defense by its entire body of work, it is actually an elite defense. I believe that Clay Matthews and company became complacent and dependent on the MVP performance they were receiving from Aaron Rodgers and his high flying offense. Facing Drew Brees’ Saints in the season opener was the worst thing that could have happened to them because it made Green Bay too used to playing in shootouts. The results of their games did not discourage this either, so they never really focused on defense and eventually paid for it. A spoiled defensive unit lost their fire and suffered an uncharacteristically pathetic season. This time, however, there is nothing to rest their laurels on. Saddled with the “worst pass defense ever” title, I fully expect this group to rebound and at least come close to the effectiveness of the Green Bay offense, which is a scary thought for opponents.

The NFC North is outrageously high powered and has more dynamic playmakers than any other division. Their defenses all have a few issues to fight off but, as a whole, I do believe it is the best division in football. The NFC East is in that conversation as well, but we will get to them much later. After all, the hometown heroes and world champions deserve the closing act. Our next destination on this NFL Eightfold Path leaves me with more frustrating confusion than football enlightenment. My head takes on my heart in a heated self-debate and I have no idea how that will end up. These teams once made up a division that could compete among the NFL’s best, but each may be taking a huge step backwards.

The NFL Eightfold Path: AFC West

Our second stop on the NFL Eightfold Path is in the west as well, but this time we will discuss the AFC’s Wild West. What I love about this division is that, in my opinion, it is the only NFL foursome in which any of the teams can capture the division title. Injuries seem to be a bigger factor in this division that any other, and may determine the fate of all teams involved. Peyton Manning’s questionable health and ability to bounce back will be the story in Denver. In San Diego, the loss of Ryan Matthews could cost a team that is already known for slow starts. Darren McFadden was among the elite playmakers last season prior to an injury that crippled his season, which will be an ongoing concern in Oakland. Lastly, Kansas City more or less lost their entire team to injuries. We may not know what to expect from any of these teams, but I can at least take a stab at where they will finish in a division that can really go either way. There is immense talent and potential in the AFC West, but anything resembling last season would be a huge letdown.

4. Chargers: Speaking of high talent and disappointing results, the Chargers have been the NFL’s biggest disappointment when it comes to the ability/production ratio throughout the past decade. There were zero Super Bowl appearances for a team that consistently matched the Patriots and Colts blow for blow on their depth charts. Predicting that the perennially dominant team in this division is actually the worst of the four feels strange, but there is plenty of reason to believe it. Phillip Rivers is following arguably his worst season as a professional, especially considering where he should have been at that point in his career. As if it had not ended already, any debate that the Giants should have gone with him instead of Eli back in 2004 was over after last season. This year, the Chargers enter the regular season without their longtime best receiver, Vincent Jackson, who has moved on to Tampa Bay. In addition to this loss, Ryan Matthews should miss approximately six more weeks with his broken clavicle. This leaves Rivers with no choice but to pull a Peyton and make something out of a nothing offense, something I am not convinced he can do after his last campaign. Their defense, for lack of a better description, is terrible. With a crippled, shaky offense and a defense that cannot keep the flood gates shut, I believe San Diego will be almost irrelevant in this division for the first time in a long time.

3. Raiders: Another year, another head coach. It seemed like Hugh Jackson had a good thing going in Oakland last season, but management did not agree. The Raiders definitely have a potent offense that carries more potential than any other in this division (that does include Peyton’s Broncos). If everything went well for the Raiders, they would win this division. The only problem is, there is little to no chance that every coin-toss issue will end in a favorable outcome for the Black Hole. Carson Palmer was once elite but may not have much left in the tank. Their receivers are all dynamic, but have not shown enough consistency to be reliable enough for Palmer to flourish in this system. McFadden is a guaranteed home run but if he runs into any injury trouble, the wheels on the Raider machine immediately fall off and every teammate would suffer in his absence. The departure of Michael Bush takes away the security blanket of a second great runner as an insurance plan. I think their pieces are enough to surpass the dysfunctional Chargers, but are not reliable enough to match the efforts of our next two teams.

2. Broncos: These last two were really a tossup for me and I think that despite the AFC West disappointment from last season, we will see two playoff teams from this division. The Broncos’ acquisition of Peyton Manning made the sky the limit for this team. While his condition does not guarantee them anything, there is still no game he cannot win. If Rivers has another bad season, Peyton is by far the best quarterback in this division. They have a strong defense that had to put up with the leading three-and-out QB of last season, Tim Tebow. This season, they will have someone who makes big throws on third downs to extend drives and give them some rest for once. With the powerful pass rushing outside linebackers Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller, Denver can terrorize opposing quarterbacks who try to outgun Manning. Also, Champ Bailey is still in the NFL and is somehow an elite corner at age 34. Offensively, their weapons are still pretty underwhelming to me, but Peyton has always been able to negate mediocrity from his wide receivers. There are not many things that make me believe Manning and company will not win this division, but the team’s age is concerning enough for me to doubt that they will be in one piece from weeks one to seventeen.

1. Chiefs: Any team led by Matt Cassel is a longshot to win a competitive division. This is the only division in which I think the worst quarterback’s team will come out on top. Just two seasons ago, a similar Chiefs team did win this division with superb athleticism and young guns at nearly every position. I expect Jamal Charles and Peyton Hillis to both rebound from last season, which would immediately create the best thunder and lightning running back combination in the NFL. Bowe and Baldwin are two huge receivers who have the potential to dominate the red zone and should make Cassel’s job a lot easier. Defensively, they have a similar situation to the description I gave of the Rams defense in my NFC West preview. The Chiefs have one outstanding player on each level of defense, but have a better defensive supporting cast than Saint Louis to back their elite guys up. Tamba Hali’s pass rash off the line (after his brief suspension), along with Derrick Johnson’s play at linebacker and Eric Berry’s everything at safety, may blow opposing offenses away. My best and briefest reason for the Cheifs’ success is simply too many weapons on both sides of the ball. I am going against San Diego’s team experience in this division and Peyton Manning’s experience as a player for a bunch of players who I just do not think other players can catch up to. Because there is no sure thing in our previous three teams, my vote goes in favor of pure explosiveness.

The AFC West may be a better division than our last stop in its NFC counterpart, but there are even more question marks here. Any AFC West team can emerge above the others for one reason or another, a trait that is untrue anywhere else in the NFL. There are so many red flags on each team, mostly because of injuries, that each team does not have to lie to their players in the week one pregame when head coaches gather their players to say that they really can make the playoffs. From that point, as we know, anything can happen. This weekend, we will follow our path of NFL enlightenment and head up north to visit what I may call the best division in the NFL.

The NFL Eightfold Path: NFC West

In a search for NFL enlightenment, I am covering each division individually before the Giants kick off against Dallas in New Jersey. For our first stop, I figured it would be best to walk before we can run. The NFC West is traditionally the worst division in football, and this year appears to maintain that reputation. A closer look will make this interesting, but I would rather quell some of the suspense before we get started and reinforce the common belief that the NFC West is definitely the worst group offered by this year’s regular season. There are some bright spots, however, which restore some pride to the once proud west. For the first time in almost a decade, the NFL’s laughing stock enters a season with a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Arizona gave them a nice surprise a few years ago, but not since Seattle’s glory days has the NFC West been in the big picture from day one. San Francisco may have been one ball to the knee away from taking on New England in February. Thanks to their efforts and potential success in the near future, the road to the Super Bowl could possibly go through this troubled division. The other aspect of the NFC West that is so appealing is how least talented sometimes means most competitive. This division has become unpredictable in recent years, therefore the results are usually up in the air throughout the season. The wildcard race may be severely affected by whether or not one team is able to seize possession of the second spot in this division. Here, we will take a look at each team to determine who is in the best shape to win this division.

4. Cardinals: The most mediocre quarterback controversy may not lie in New York after all as Kevin Kolb and John Skelton play hot potato with the starting job. Neither performs well enough to keep it but the other never plays well enough to take it. While the duo of Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams is capable at the running back spot, they are hardly enough to make Arizona a traditional ground and pound team. If the Cards are going to win, it will have to be with significant contributions from a position that is currently failing. Their defense, while competitive, would likely break under the pressure of their struggling teammates on offense. I never was a fan of Kolb, who did not do nearly enough in Philly to justify drawing that much value in a trade. However, Skelton seems to have potential and can turn his game around with more experience. With decent runners and one of the league’s best receivers, Skelton’s transition would immediately move Arizona up this list. I just do not see any evidence to suggest this will happen and it is too much of an unlikely outcome to rely on. The Cards played well throughout the latter stages of last season with Skelton at the helm, and that team would have enough to give the 49ers a run for their money. Despite similar personnel, this team just looks like a mess to me.

3. Seahawks: Despite arguably having even lesser talent at the quarterback position, there are other aspects to Seattle’s game that make them very competitive. In contrast to the point made about Arizona’s running game, Marshawn Lynch is more than enough to compensate for the Seahawks’ aerial struggles. Their defense is also much better than Arizona’s in terms of playmaking, potential turnovers, and fundamental tackling in general. So far, Russell Wilson has the lead in their QB race, which provides an additional threat of quarterback mobility to an offense that could use more playmakers. I do not want to put too much weight on the signing of Terrell Owens, but it is worth noting that TO can still fly past an opposing secondary and find the end zone if he can manage to not drop the ball. The possibility of Seattle outplaying Arizona only became possible when the Cardinals’ QBs sank to mediocrity. If all quarterbacks involved remain nothing to speak of, Seattle has the edge when it comes to the surrounding pieces that make their respective systems tick.

2. Rams: This is as bold as I get when it comes to the NFC West. Like I said earlier, underwhelming divisions have a very level playing field and a team that has been the worst in recent years can rise above teams that fail to make improvements. The main reason I see a Rams improvement is Sam Bradford, who can do a lot of damage if he has enough time to survive in the pocket. Steven Jackson has essentially been the entire Rams offense, but Bradford is ready to lead if his linemen are as well. Danny Amendola is quietly an excellent receiver if he can stay healthy. Last season I said that if he had ended up in New England instead, he would have every accomplishment Wes Welker now has because given the right opportunity, he can be just as good. I also felt Bradford was the best NFC West quarterback last season, which clearly did not make a huge difference. There has to be a lot more going for the Rams than their few weapons on offense. New head coach Jeff Fisher was the first moving piece that made me think this season’s team would be a significant improvement from previous years. Fisher’s influence should be a strong one that I think will most notably improve Saint Louis’ defense. While they may not have eleven great defenders, the Rams have one very good player at each level of defense. Chris Long is a beast on the defensive line, James Laurinaitis is a rock at linebacker, and Cortland Finnegan is the playmaker they have so desperately needed in the secondary. These players may make up a small percentage of the entire defense, but having one leader by example at each level may produce great results. And if nothing else, they get to play a combined six games against the winners of the Arizona and Seattle QB competitions and Alex Smith.

1. 49ers: I may not believe in as successful a season as the last San Francisco campaign, but there is no reason to see the 49ers losing their position atop the NFC West. The order of the previous three is close to unpredictable, but none of them have shown enough to win this division. When we analyze the 49ers, it is less about whether or not they are the best in the division and more about once they make the playoffs. I fear that a young and impressionable team led by an impulsive and overly enthusiastic coach may take on the immature characteristics displayed by their own leadership. The two biggest concerns I have are an offensive simplicity that other elite teams will be able to shut down and a defensive complacency that may come as a result of this division’s poor simulation of playoff football. The defense has to be elite again to even give this team a chance, and the offense has to be better. Randy Moss can make a big play, but he is just as likely to walk off the field. With Frank Gore, the perennial heart of this offense, on the decline, Alex Smith simply has to be better in order to make the 49ers more than just the best of the worst.

Along our NFL eightfold path, we will cover every remaining division in a similar manor. Fortunately, there are much tougher calls to be made in what lies ahead. The NFC West has worked hard for a bad reputation but with San Francisco leading the way, the teams behind them have the opportunity to elevate this division’s standards to those the excellent NFC divisions that surround them. As we progress through the NFL’s eight divisions, we will move closer to home and closer to the defending champions. Until then, each division and each article will illustrate just how difficult defending the title will be this season.

London 2012 Top 10

Tonight marked the end of the London 2012 Summer Olympics. Other than some strange colonial and Mary Poppins moments in the opening ceremonies, London ran an excellent show. As great as the host city was, the athletes themselves created the stories and made these games a guaranteed success. Our United States proudly finished atop the medal count with 104 total medals, 46 of which were gold. The Olympics are unlike any other sporting event. Because most of America, even sports fans, is out of touch with the not so mainstream Olympic sports, it is a learning experience for everyone. We get a look at sports that are less familiar to us and check in on athletes that most of us only see perform once every four years. There is always more of a personal touch added to Olympic athletes. We get a break from contract disputes and league lockouts to see a more pure form of sports. The excitement on the faces of not only winners, but people who are just happy to make it there is unlike anything else that sports have to offer and is a breath of fresh air.

Another interesting aspect of Olympians is how young they are; this is my first Olympic cycle in which I am older than a large percentage of the athletes. As a result, I have so much more of an appreciation for what they have all accomplished at such early ages. This has successfully made me feel like I have done absolutely nothing with my life, but I am sure I am not the first or last fan to feel dwarfed by the accomplishments of the world’s finest athletes. At first I was going to try haphazardly stumbling through all the high points of these 2012 Olympics but, much like my last article, this idea built for a countdown. The Olympics, like most sports, is continuous action defined by individual moments. Here are, in my opinion of course, the ten best moments from these 2012 games.

10. USA Basketball: After the Miami Heat’s latest championship, I raised the question of whether or not they impressed you. Not whether or not they were a good team, or the best for that matter, but whether or not we should be impressed by what they did considering how they positioned themselves in the 2010 off-season. It would be incredibly hypocritical to not raise this same question against team USA just because this time, it involves a team that I root for. Seeing both our men and women go undefeated this summer was amazing but expected. Leaving our stranglehold on the sports of basketball off this list would be a crime, due to the nature of that accomplishment, but I cannot give a spot better than ten to an outcome that was so obvious. I suppose that without Howard, Wade, and Rose because of injuries, Team USA had some adversity, but their talent was still miles ahead of the competition. Despite our women scoring more style points in their gold medal game, I still consider the teams even because the men faced tougher competition from around the world. For this same reason, the 2012 Team USA is not as far behind the 1992 Dream Team as most people believe. Both teams were dominant and maintained, but did not elevate, USA basketball supremacy.

9. Melissa Jeanette Franklin: Better known as Missy Franklin, our newest swimming phenomenon embodies what I mentioned earlier about youth and enthusiasm. In a sport with plenty of competition, living up to standards set by the American swimming program and its previous legends is no easy task. In the midst of what was, at that time, a fierce race for Olympic domination against the Chinese, Missy exploded onto the Olympic scene and was a driving force that helped lead our nation’s athletes throughout the first half of the 2012 games. Missy was one Call Me Maybe parody away from being my favorite female athlete of London’s 2012 Olympics and it will be great to have her representing the USA for years to come. She ended up with four gold medals, one bronze and a couple of world records. Franklin and Michael Phelps were the only Olympians to capture four gold medals in 2012. Not bad for an Olympic debut.

8. Gabby Douglas and the Fab 5: What were we doing at age 16? Our youngest top ten performer took the gymnastics world by storm on the two biggest stages. Douglas won gold in the team finals and became the coveted all-around champion. Some speculation suggests that she faded after the peak of her accomplishments. Her underwhelming 7^th and 8^th place finishes in her Olympic events were somewhat anticlimactic after what we grew to expect from her. However, I think her performance was less about her game decreasing over time than it was elevating her performance at the biggest moments. In the two most important events, Gabby Douglas stepped up and proved to be the world’s best gymnast when it mattered most. Douglas and her supporting cast of Jordyn Wieber, Aly Raisman, McKayla Maroney and Kyla Ross made up quite possibly the best USA gymnastics team ever assembled, even more so than 1996’s Magnificent Seven.

7. Andy Murray: Speaking of stepping up on the biggest stage, Great Britain’s best tennis player has never won a Grand Slam event and has historically struggled when matched up against the world’s best. Facing Roger Federer, one of the greatest of all time, in the gold medal match seemed like a perfect setup for another heartbreak. However, given the support of his home crowd and the pressure of the Olympic stage, this was a very different experience. He defeated Federer, and it was not by any means close. The adrenaline rush was felt throughout a nation that, by that time, was surprisingly making a lot of noise at its own games. Great Britain finished among the elite at the 2012 Summer Olympics, and this was one of their crown jewels of a very successful season. The silver medal he received in the doubles competition can be easily forgotten but was also a big accomplishment for this summer’s British dominance of tennis.

6. Felix Sanchez: The 400 meter hurdles champion won the Domican Republic’s first medal of the 2012 games, but that is hardly the story here. Sanchez is among the only athletes in history to wear a name more important than the one of his own country. On his cleats, “Abuela” had been written in memory of his grandmother. The 2004 Summer Olympics were held in Athens, which is where Sanchez won his first gold medal in this event. Four years later in Beijing, he found out on the day of 400 meter hurdles qualifying that his grandmother had passed away that morning. After making the tough decision to stay in the competition, he dedicated his performance to her. That day, he finished with the 22^nd place time out of 25 qualifying runners. Four painful years passed and Sanchez entered the 2012 London Olympics at 34 years old. Remember, Olympians age in dog years so this attempt would be a longshot. In the finals, Sanchez completed the most emotional Olympic performance I have ever seen. He blew away the competition for his second career gold medal. After he crossed the finish line, he pulled a picture of his abuela from his jersey and placed it on the track. What followed was the most moving moment of these 2012 Olympics, and I strongly suggest that you find video of it somewhere if you have not seen this already.

5. Jessica Ennis: It takes the peak of athletic greatness to top that last moment, which is all that lies ahead. If Andy Murray is what kept London’s excitement going, this is what started it. Ennis suffered a stress fracture in her right foot in 2008 that kept her out of the Beijing Olympics. This proved to be a career threatening injury as Ennis lost multiple world titles and her status for this year was questionable for some time. In preparation for 2012, she learned to long jump leading with her non-dominant foot. In London, the crowd went wild as she made the final turn of the 800 meter run and captured the gold medal in the heptathlon by a sizable margin. By most unbiased standards, this accomplishment makes Jessica Ennis the most athletic woman on Earth. Her versatility and excellence in each event support his claim. This is a woman who can high jump a foot taller than her own height. In more ways than one, Ennis is a great face for team Great Britain. Her success was a shot in the arm to GB’s athletics and started the British gold rush that solidified their spot near the top of the standings. Among many great moments for the home team, this was Britain’s greatest time to shine.

4. Oscar Pistorius and Kirani James: The “Blade Runner” from South Africa is as inspirational as it gets in sports. Pistorius became the first double amputee to run on an Olympic track, but not before controversy struck from inexperienced science. Pistorius was previously banned from Olympic competition because the people in charge actually believed that his prosthetic legs were a competitive advantage against able-bodied runners. I should not have to explain why this decision was eventually overturned, but they eventually realized that having no legs is actually not beneficial when it comes to running. The nature of his prosthetic legs is not bionic, they merely act as a support system that allows the rest of his body’s movements. His essential running muscles and upper legs are still there and are the force behind his speed and stamina. When Pistorius qualified for the 400 meter semi-finals, all eyes were on him to see if the impossible could become history. In this same heat was gold medal favorite (and eventual champion) Kirani James. James won convincingly and moved on to the finals, where he would win gold and capture Grenada’s first ever Olympic medal. Pistorius, on the other hand, finished in last place of this semi-final heat. After the race, however, James approached Pistorius and the two traded name tags, the equivalent of soccer’s jersey trading tradition between great players. This act of sportsmanship between a champion of sport and a champion of life is already an iconic moment in Olympic history and embodies what Olympic competition is all about. Pistorius will compete in future Paralympics as well, where I imagine his competition is in serious trouble.

3. Misty May Treanor and Kerri Walsh Jennings: These last three moments are pretty interchangeable because each carries a “greatest of all time” title. Misty May and Kerri have dominated beach volleyball for a long time now, but this last championship run would be the most challenging. The strong Brazilian team entered the competition as the number one ranked team in the world, and the Kessy-Ross American team was expected to be almost just as good as our legendary combination. Misty and Kerri actually lost a set for the first time in their Olympic career and faced tough competition on their way to the top, but the two eventually recaptured their rightful place on top of the world. In a delightful all-USA gold medal match, Treaner and Jennings won decisively and completed a three-peat and the perfect Olympic career. This gold and silver combination was the turning point for the USA overtaking and running away from China in the medal count. Misty and Kerri literally accomplished as much as they could have on the Olympic stage and will likely retire now among the greatest Olympians of all time. No one has dominated their respective sport for as long as these two women have, and going undefeated over a span of twelve years is an accomplishment that will be remembered forever.

2. Usain Bolt and Jamaica’s dominance: Usain Bolt became the first man in history to win consecutive gold medals in both the 100 and 200 meter sprints. He holds the world record in both events, and has dominated sprinting in a way that is almost comical. From mid race celebrations to an outgoing off the track personality, Bolt has crossed the threshold between hometown hero and worldwide superstar. He is admired here in America and all over the world, and he deserves it. What I love about track is that unlike football, baseball or other sports, the greatest of all time can be determined by simply looking at the numbers. Quarterbacks naturally throw for more yards now and baseball seasons have more games. In track, you have to be the fastest to travel a given distance on foot. That’s it, and Bolt has become the fastest man to do so. He is without a doubt the fastest man of all time, and managed to do it in style. These Olympics were different because while he was probably still the odds on favorite, some expected him to lose his throne to teammate Yohan Blake, who beat Bolt in both races during Olympic qualifying in Jamaica. However, it was business as usual for Bolt who, by track standards, won both events by a large margin. The USA actually put up a great fight in the always exciting 4X100 meter relay, but the Jamaicans were just too good. With Bolt as the anchor for the first time, we finally saw him finish a race at full speed, and it was beautiful to watch.

1. Michael Phelps: The most decorated Olympian of all time now has 22 Olympic medals. There is no analysis that can describe his accomplishments better than simply stating the truth. He has 22 Olympic medals, 18 gold medals, 13 individual medals, 11 individual gold medals. After winning a record eight gold medals in Beijing, he quietly won four more in London. He is 6’4” with a 6’8” wingspan and his build is custom made for Olympic swimming. He decisively outperformed teammate Ryan Lochte, who was expected to dethrone Phelps and become the world’s greatest swimmer. Lochte has taken criticism from the Twitter nation for underperforming at these Olympics, but I think that his participation made history possible. His victory over Phelps and the rest of the world in the 400 meter medley to kick off the Olympics was the wakeup call Phelps needed to become the Michael Phelps we all wanted to see. His reaction to that loss came in the form of six medals over the next week. If Michael Phelps sticks to his retirement plan, he will most likely go down in history as the single greatest Olympian of all time. While I selfishly hope he comes back for one more, the way he ended things this summer was pretty perfect.

I do not want to ruin the magic of these stories by complaining too much, but it would be a disservice to anyone reading if I did not criticize NBC’s terrible coverage of these Summer Olympics. They claim that the reasoning behind the eight to twelve hour delay between the actual event and their coverage was to show the biggest events in primetime (8pm eastern standard time). However, anyone who followed these 2012 games closely knows what came on at 8pm. Diving. Every night was diving. Sometimes synchronized, sometimes individual, but there was always diving on at 8pm. The events that they advertised (swimming, gymnastics, etc.) would not actually come on until 11 or 11:30pm. They cannot expect 21^st century Americans to bury their heads in the sand and hide from the news so they can be surprised at midnight. I gave up on them pretty early on and started streaming live British coverage. The two things NBC could have done well was show events live in timely fashion or during American primetime. They did neither, and even once the events were on they were mediocre. Andrea Kramer has no idea how to interview someone who has just lost, which is an art. Luckily, America did a lot of winning, but watching her basically ask Ryan Lochte how it felt to lose was painful. Bob Kostas was giving highlights of a qualifying USA men’s basketball game that I missed. He showed us two highlights of Lebron dunking and then moved on to diving. He never gave a final score and I had to look it up on espn.com. There is a noticeable difference between ESPN coverage, an actual sports network, and NBC’s entertainment over sports approach. I heard ten times how Missy Franklin is going to a Justin Bieber concert, but the emotional video of her high school gathering to watch her win gold was only shown once.

Despite NBC’s many efforts, nothing can take away from London’s great 2012 Summer Olympics. I will forever remember the stories listed here and the memories that the world’s greatest athletes created for viewers everywhere. I can only imagine the pressure that comes from the Olympic stage and the glory that comes from their performances, their heart, and the pride of an entire nation.