The NFL Eightfold Path: AFC West

Our second stop on the NFL Eightfold Path is in the west as well, but this time we will discuss the AFC’s Wild West. What I love about this division is that, in my opinion, it is the only NFL foursome in which any of the teams can capture the division title. Injuries seem to be a bigger factor in this division that any other, and may determine the fate of all teams involved. Peyton Manning’s questionable health and ability to bounce back will be the story in Denver. In San Diego, the loss of Ryan Matthews could cost a team that is already known for slow starts. Darren McFadden was among the elite playmakers last season prior to an injury that crippled his season, which will be an ongoing concern in Oakland. Lastly, Kansas City more or less lost their entire team to injuries. We may not know what to expect from any of these teams, but I can at least take a stab at where they will finish in a division that can really go either way. There is immense talent and potential in the AFC West, but anything resembling last season would be a huge letdown.

4. Chargers: Speaking of high talent and disappointing results, the Chargers have been the NFL’s biggest disappointment when it comes to the ability/production ratio throughout the past decade. There were zero Super Bowl appearances for a team that consistently matched the Patriots and Colts blow for blow on their depth charts. Predicting that the perennially dominant team in this division is actually the worst of the four feels strange, but there is plenty of reason to believe it. Phillip Rivers is following arguably his worst season as a professional, especially considering where he should have been at that point in his career. As if it had not ended already, any debate that the Giants should have gone with him instead of Eli back in 2004 was over after last season. This year, the Chargers enter the regular season without their longtime best receiver, Vincent Jackson, who has moved on to Tampa Bay. In addition to this loss, Ryan Matthews should miss approximately six more weeks with his broken clavicle. This leaves Rivers with no choice but to pull a Peyton and make something out of a nothing offense, something I am not convinced he can do after his last campaign. Their defense, for lack of a better description, is terrible. With a crippled, shaky offense and a defense that cannot keep the flood gates shut, I believe San Diego will be almost irrelevant in this division for the first time in a long time.

3. Raiders: Another year, another head coach. It seemed like Hugh Jackson had a good thing going in Oakland last season, but management did not agree. The Raiders definitely have a potent offense that carries more potential than any other in this division (that does include Peyton’s Broncos). If everything went well for the Raiders, they would win this division. The only problem is, there is little to no chance that every coin-toss issue will end in a favorable outcome for the Black Hole. Carson Palmer was once elite but may not have much left in the tank. Their receivers are all dynamic, but have not shown enough consistency to be reliable enough for Palmer to flourish in this system. McFadden is a guaranteed home run but if he runs into any injury trouble, the wheels on the Raider machine immediately fall off and every teammate would suffer in his absence. The departure of Michael Bush takes away the security blanket of a second great runner as an insurance plan. I think their pieces are enough to surpass the dysfunctional Chargers, but are not reliable enough to match the efforts of our next two teams.

2. Broncos: These last two were really a tossup for me and I think that despite the AFC West disappointment from last season, we will see two playoff teams from this division. The Broncos’ acquisition of Peyton Manning made the sky the limit for this team. While his condition does not guarantee them anything, there is still no game he cannot win. If Rivers has another bad season, Peyton is by far the best quarterback in this division. They have a strong defense that had to put up with the leading three-and-out QB of last season, Tim Tebow. This season, they will have someone who makes big throws on third downs to extend drives and give them some rest for once. With the powerful pass rushing outside linebackers Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller, Denver can terrorize opposing quarterbacks who try to outgun Manning. Also, Champ Bailey is still in the NFL and is somehow an elite corner at age 34. Offensively, their weapons are still pretty underwhelming to me, but Peyton has always been able to negate mediocrity from his wide receivers. There are not many things that make me believe Manning and company will not win this division, but the team’s age is concerning enough for me to doubt that they will be in one piece from weeks one to seventeen.

1. Chiefs: Any team led by Matt Cassel is a longshot to win a competitive division. This is the only division in which I think the worst quarterback’s team will come out on top. Just two seasons ago, a similar Chiefs team did win this division with superb athleticism and young guns at nearly every position. I expect Jamal Charles and Peyton Hillis to both rebound from last season, which would immediately create the best thunder and lightning running back combination in the NFL. Bowe and Baldwin are two huge receivers who have the potential to dominate the red zone and should make Cassel’s job a lot easier. Defensively, they have a similar situation to the description I gave of the Rams defense in my NFC West preview. The Chiefs have one outstanding player on each level of defense, but have a better defensive supporting cast than Saint Louis to back their elite guys up. Tamba Hali’s pass rash off the line (after his brief suspension), along with Derrick Johnson’s play at linebacker and Eric Berry’s everything at safety, may blow opposing offenses away. My best and briefest reason for the Cheifs’ success is simply too many weapons on both sides of the ball. I am going against San Diego’s team experience in this division and Peyton Manning’s experience as a player for a bunch of players who I just do not think other players can catch up to. Because there is no sure thing in our previous three teams, my vote goes in favor of pure explosiveness.

The AFC West may be a better division than our last stop in its NFC counterpart, but there are even more question marks here. Any AFC West team can emerge above the others for one reason or another, a trait that is untrue anywhere else in the NFL. There are so many red flags on each team, mostly because of injuries, that each team does not have to lie to their players in the week one pregame when head coaches gather their players to say that they really can make the playoffs. From that point, as we know, anything can happen. This weekend, we will follow our path of NFL enlightenment and head up north to visit what I may call the best division in the NFL.