Tuesday, August 21, 2012

The NFL Eightfold Path: NFC West



In a search for NFL enlightenment, I am covering each division individually before the Giants kick off against Dallas in New Jersey. For our first stop, I figured it would be best to walk before we can run. The NFC West is traditionally the worst division in football, and this year appears to maintain that reputation. A closer look will make this interesting, but I would rather quell some of the suspense before we get started and reinforce the common belief that the NFC West is definitely the worst group offered by this year’s regular season. There are some bright spots, however, which restore some pride to the once proud west. For the first time in almost a decade, the NFL’s laughing stock enters a season with a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Arizona gave them a nice surprise a few years ago, but not since Seattle’s glory days has the NFC West been in the big picture from day one. San Francisco may have been one ball to the knee away from taking on New England in February. Thanks to their efforts and potential success in the near future, the road to the Super Bowl could possibly go through this troubled division. The other aspect of the NFC West that is so appealing is how least talented sometimes means most competitive. This division has become unpredictable in recent years, therefore the results are usually up in the air throughout the season. The wildcard race may be severely affected by whether or not one team is able to seize possession of the second spot in this division. Here, we will take a look at each team to determine who is in the best shape to win this division.

4. Cardinals: The most mediocre quarterback controversy may not lie in New York after all as Kevin Kolb and John Skelton play hot potato with the starting job. Neither performs well enough to keep it but the other never plays well enough to take it. While the duo of Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams is capable at the running back spot, they are hardly enough to make Arizona a traditional ground and pound team. If the Cards are going to win, it will have to be with significant contributions from a position that is currently failing. Their defense, while competitive, would likely break under the pressure of their struggling teammates on offense. I never was a fan of Kolb, who did not do nearly enough in Philly to justify drawing that much value in a trade. However, Skelton seems to have potential and can turn his game around with more experience. With decent runners and one of the league’s best receivers, Skelton’s transition would immediately move Arizona up this list. I just do not see any evidence to suggest this will happen and it is too much of an unlikely outcome to rely on. The Cards played well throughout the latter stages of last season with Skelton at the helm, and that team would have enough to give the 49ers a run for their money. Despite similar personnel, this team just looks like a mess to me.

3. Seahawks: Despite arguably having even lesser talent at the quarterback position, there are other aspects to Seattle’s game that make them very competitive. In contrast to the point made about Arizona’s running game, Marshawn Lynch is more than enough to compensate for the Seahawks’ aerial struggles. Their defense is also much better than Arizona’s in terms of playmaking, potential turnovers, and fundamental tackling in general. So far, Russell Wilson has the lead in their QB race, which provides an additional threat of quarterback mobility to an offense that could use more playmakers. I do not want to put too much weight on the signing of Terrell Owens, but it is worth noting that TO can still fly past an opposing secondary and find the end zone if he can manage to not drop the ball. The possibility of Seattle outplaying Arizona only became possible when the Cardinals’ QBs sank to mediocrity. If all quarterbacks involved remain nothing to speak of, Seattle has the edge when it comes to the surrounding pieces that make their respective systems tick.

2. Rams: This is as bold as I get when it comes to the NFC West. Like I said earlier, underwhelming divisions have a very level playing field and a team that has been the worst in recent years can rise above teams that fail to make improvements. The main reason I see a Rams improvement is Sam Bradford, who can do a lot of damage if he has enough time to survive in the pocket. Steven Jackson has essentially been the entire Rams offense, but Bradford is ready to lead if his linemen are as well. Danny Amendola is quietly an excellent receiver if he can stay healthy. Last season I said that if he had ended up in New England instead, he would have every accomplishment Wes Welker now has because given the right opportunity, he can be just as good. I also felt Bradford was the best NFC West quarterback last season, which clearly did not make a huge difference. There has to be a lot more going for the Rams than their few weapons on offense. New head coach Jeff Fisher was the first moving piece that made me think this season’s team would be a significant improvement from previous years. Fisher’s influence should be a strong one that I think will most notably improve Saint Louis’ defense. While they may not have eleven great defenders, the Rams have one very good player at each level of defense. Chris Long is a beast on the defensive line, James Laurinaitis is a rock at linebacker, and Cortland Finnegan is the playmaker they have so desperately needed in the secondary. These players may make up a small percentage of the entire defense, but having one leader by example at each level may produce great results. And if nothing else, they get to play a combined six games against the winners of the Arizona and Seattle QB competitions and Alex Smith.

1. 49ers: I may not believe in as successful a season as the last San Francisco campaign, but there is no reason to see the 49ers losing their position atop the NFC West. The order of the previous three is close to unpredictable, but none of them have shown enough to win this division. When we analyze the 49ers, it is less about whether or not they are the best in the division and more about once they make the playoffs. I fear that a young and impressionable team led by an impulsive and overly enthusiastic coach may take on the immature characteristics displayed by their own leadership. The two biggest concerns I have are an offensive simplicity that other elite teams will be able to shut down and a defensive complacency that may come as a result of this division’s poor simulation of playoff football. The defense has to be elite again to even give this team a chance, and the offense has to be better. Randy Moss can make a big play, but he is just as likely to walk off the field. With Frank Gore, the perennial heart of this offense, on the decline, Alex Smith simply has to be better in order to make the 49ers more than just the best of the worst.

Along our NFL eightfold path, we will cover every remaining division in a similar manor. Fortunately, there are much tougher calls to be made in what lies ahead. The NFC West has worked hard for a bad reputation but with San Francisco leading the way, the teams behind them have the opportunity to elevate this division’s standards to those the excellent NFC divisions that surround them. As we progress through the NFL’s eight divisions, we will move closer to home and closer to the defending champions. Until then, each division and each article will illustrate just how difficult defending the title will be this season.

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