Monday, September 3, 2012

The NFL Eightfold Path: AFC South



The AFC South will be nominated for the honor of the NFL’s worst division. The Colts carried the struggling group for years with occasional appearances from the Jaguars or Titans. Now, however, the shadow cast by Peyton Manning over the remaining three teams is gone, leaving room for a new perennial division champion. Last season, the traditionally terrible Texans answered this call and became the AFC’s best team before eventually being brought down hard by multiple injuries. In 2012-13, we get to find out whether or not their success is temporary. In a foursome that will almost certainly be held to one playoff team, winning the division becomes even more crucial. I took a week off to settle back at school, but now it is time to rapid fire these last few divisions before Wednesday night kickoff in MetLife.

4. Colts: Andrew Luck’s potential is almost enough to sneak Indy up to third place in my projections, but there was a lot more missing from this team than Peyton Manning last season. The Colts used to get away with an underwhelming running game or defense because one of history’s greatest players would baby them to victory. Luck will be a serviceable replacement, but he will need more help than Peyton ever required to push this mediocre team into playoff contention. I do believe that the Colts were never the NFL’s worst team and simply suffered from the shock value of Manning’s injury, especially when they started the season expecting a return at some point. This season should be better, but their clear intentions are to slowly rebuild behind the slow and steady development of the pieces they currently have in place. Donald Brown is a decent enough weapon to support Luck and Reggie Wayne’s career is not quite over yet, so there is reason to believe that the Colts do not have reservations for last place this season. While I am not sold enough to rank them above any of the next three teams, Luck is capable of as many as seven wins this season.

3. Jaguars: With Maurice Jones-Drew leading the NFL in rushing last season, the Jags still finished the season with the NFL’s worst offense. This off-season’s holdout stressed the importance of an improvement from sophomore quarterback Blaine Gabbert. To me, Gabbert was the NFL’s worst starting QB last season. He has actually looked good throughout the preseason, but I try not to overreact to exhibition play. I am sure he will not be as bad, but a huge problem for Jacksonville will be if Mojo is not as good. Historically, players who hold out over contract disputes are less durable and, ultimately, less productive. If Jones-Drew struggles or is anything less than healthy and spectacular, Gabbert and company may be in for a long season. Expect a more balanced attack from the Jags, but not a much more effective one. The Jaguars quietly have a strong defense and Justin Blackmon appears to have potential as a playmaking receiver, so they have enough to finish ahead of a team that is going through a compete rebuilding phase. However, the playoffs are most likely out of the question here as well.

2. Titans: In contrast to the holdout point made about Mojo, Tennessee’s Chris Johnson seems to be set up for a huge season. Last year, he suffered career lows in most statistical categories, which was likely a consequence of not showing up at training camp and demanding a bigger contract. This season, we can expect a more typical CJ2K effort, especially with a rookie-led offense that will rely on Johnson’s production. I would not consider the Titans among the legitimate playoff contenders despite the impressive push they made towards the end of last season. Jake Locker’s decision making is still questionable and Kenny Britt’s health is not trustworthy enough to assume Tennessee will have weapons outside of Chris Johnson. Defensively, they are a far cry from the Titans that had Albert Haynesworth in his prime. That team used to dominate the line of scrimmage and dictate the pace of the game. Now, they lack playmakers and Locker may find himself in a few uncomfortable shootouts that will make him more vulnerable to mistakes. Once this Tennessee team falls behind and loses the ability to consistently run the ball, they will struggle to keep up with better teams.

1. Texans: I believe Houston will be the only team in the AFC South to win more than eight games. They have become an elite team that, like New England, benefits from having six very winnable games from division rivalries. With arguably the best all-around running back in football, Arian Foster, the impressive connection between Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson is almost overlooked now. If they can stay healthy, the Texans are in a great position to make a Super Bowl run. They may have lost Mario Williams this off-season to Buffalo, but they won games last season without him and other key players who will be returning. JJ Watt serves as their new defensive anchor and is more than capable of creating similar chaos for opposing quarterbacks. Houston has no real weakness; they just have to become more exceptional in order to improve after last season’s strong effort against a lot of adversity. Their passing game has to be at least close to the threat of their running game, which would make them nearly unstoppable. The Texans should run away with this division, the only question is whether or not they have enough to win it all.

The AFC South will likely be dominated by one team yet again, but this time Peyton’s Colts have handed the keys over to Matt Schaub’s Texans. Houston needs to take advantage of this division’s weakened state and seize the opportunity they have been given. The only remaining mystery is whether the Titans or another likely contender have what it takes to push another team out of the playoff picture. Tomorrow, we will look at what is traditionally the NFL’s most unpredictable division. This will include an exiled coach, some massive underachievers and an attempt to live up to a rookie season for the ages.

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