The NFL Eightfold Path: NFC North

Round three of our NFL Eightfold path includes, in my opinion, the league’s strongest division. ESPN the Magazine’s latest issue predicted a perfect 19-0 championship season for the Super Bowl favorite Green Bay Packers. Whether or not this is even close to true, having a team with the NFL’s highest projections does bring a huge advantage to the NFC North when it comes to comparing football’s divisions. In addition to the heaviest of heavy hitters, each remaining team has plenty of reasons to be better than last season. The NFC North is the only division that produced multiple playoff teams last year and still has the opportunity to see each of its four teams improve this season (that includes the 15-1 Packers). It is a strong enough group to produce three playoff teams, but the NFC as a whole is just too good to let that happen. It is likely that Detroit and Chicago will fight for the last playoff spot if neither manages to overthrow Green Bay. If so, take a mental note of the week 17 matchup between the Lions and Bears because that may be the regular season’s most significant game in terms of the NFL playoff bubble. Also, for you fantasy players with a week 17 championship, I am sure that Megatron, Stafford, Marshall, Forte, and others involved in such a game want their team in the playoffs.

4. Vikings: Minnesota’s line between mediocre and terrible will be defined by Adrian Peterson’s health. Unfortunately, this variable means more to fantasy football than the NFL. With or without the league’s most talented runner, the Vikings do not have enough to compete with their three division rivals. In order to even capture third place here, Peterson would have to return to full health and Christian Ponder would have to significantly improve from last season with a sub-par receiving core. Defensively, even an improvement would not be enough to baby their young QB. Typically, first or second year starting quarterbacks need an elite defense to flourish, or at least one that comes close. Think of Roethlisberger, Sanchez, Flacco, or how the Bengals were close enough to elite to help out Dalton. Cam Newton is a freak, so this did not apply. Ponder, on the other hand, needs many peripheral aspects of this team to go very well, which is not likely. Jarred Allen can only do so much, even leading the league in sacks does not seem to be enough. Outside of a potentially miraculous recovery from Peterson, which is not guaranteed, nothing provides much of a silver lining for the Vikings. Of course, being better than last season’s 3-13 finish is not a huge task. An improvement does not mean a playoff berth and something as small as staying competitive or spoiling a rival’s season may be all they need to call 2012-13 some form of success. Winning, for example, six games instead of three should be entirely possible, but these next three teams won’t make it easy. Minnesota will have to pile up wins outside of division rivalries if they want to avoid another three win season.

3. Lions: The space between Detroit and Chicago is microscopic, but a few factors swing the decision in favor of the windy city. First of all, the Lions and Raiders have a monopoly in the discipline department, or lack thereof. They led the league in penalties last season together, and the Lions took their violating talents off the field to lead the league in arrests in this off-season. A team trying to win this division cannot afford those mental mistakes. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson have evolved into the league’s best quarterback-receiver combination, narrowly edging out Brady and Welker in my book. A questionable running game, however, makes their offense somewhat one dimensional. Jahvid Best is a valuable weapon who was great when he played last season, but concussions continue to plague his injury ridden career. As a pure cannon, Stafford’s arm is the NFL’s best. With everything else factored in, he is still in the top five at his position. This offense will be great with or without a running game, but their defense keeps them from reaching an elite status as a complete team. Suh and company can rush the passer, but Detroit’s pass coverage and tackling is atrocious. The only chance Detroit has of being a championship defense is if opposing quarterbacks never have a chance to throw the ball, which is unlikely. Suh’s defensive leadership takes a hit because of his immaturity. As a Steelers fan, it would be hypocritical to pretend I do not love huge hits and violent defensive playmakers. However, liking my team taught me the difference between violent and dirty. I hate most roughing the passer calls and side with the pass rushers who more or less have no legal way to go about their business. However, when you go so far as to intentionally step on people, you have crossed the line. Suh’s extracurricular activities take away from his potential and limit his focus. If he fine tunes his style of play, he can lead the way towards better team defense. The Lions’ ceiling is sky high, but most of their team is well behind Stafford and Megatron in the race to excellence.

2. Bears: The Chicago Bears will have something this season that revolutionizes an awful tradition of bad receivers. Brandon Marshall goes from good to fantastic when teamed up with Jay Cutler, who develops tunnel vision as soon as Marshall enters the game. Usually, this is a bad thing for quarterbacks, but this team could use one dominant guy to inhale nearly every target. The Bears have had seven 1,000 yard seasons from receivers since 1970. If the history between these two players is indicative of their future as a couple, Marshall will have more targets than any other receiver in the NFL. His biggest competition will be Welker, who now loses many of his passes to Gronkowski. Calvin Johnson will be up there, but Stafford likes to get other receivers involved despite the obvious talent gap. Guys like Titus Young and Brandon Pettigrew will see plenty of action for Detroit as well. If Marshall’s drops remain a problem, he may still lead the league in receptions. The reason I continue to emphasize the importance of this pair is because while Stafford and Johnson are better as pure players, do not be surprised if the production of this Chicago duo is not far behind. Their chemistry in Denver should continue this season, which is enough to match the efforts of any other aerial connection. What then elevates Chicago over Detroit is both their running game and defense. Matt Forte is one of the NFL’s best and most versatile running backs. His injury kept him from being among the league leaders in yards from scrimmage, but a full recovery should pave the way for a big year. Michael Bush was a great backup who inherited a starting role after McFadden’s injury in Oakland. He has proven that he is a more than capable runner who will likely take most of Chicago’s goal line carries and can cash in on most of them. Defensively, Urlacher’s knee procedure is a concern, but the team and Urlacher continue to insist that the injury is a minor one. All in all, Chicago is a more complete team than Detroit and has the best chance to take down the kings of this division.

1. Packers: I wanted to go bold and pick Chicago to win this division. After all, they manage to give Green Bay great games even when they are not as good a team. A fully loaded Bears could possibly overtake the Packers. However, I remembered a mistake I made during this year’s March Madness. I overthought a way to take down Kentucky and quickly realized that overthinking for the sake of going bold is not healthy. In this case, let’s not overthink it. The Green Bay Packers mocked the regular season in 2011-12 and had to be taken out by the team that absolutely no one should want to face in the playoffs by now. The main reason I feel the Packers will hold off these two huge threats is their defense. Last season, they gave up over 22 points per game and were the league’s 19^th ranked defense in points allowed. In yards allowed, they were 32^nd (dead last). The Packers actually presented, statistically, the worst pass defense in history last season. My recurring theme here is that the Packers were terrible on defense last year. However, a similar defensive roster had average ranks over the previous two seasons of 4.5^th in points allowed and 3.5^th in yards allowed. If you judge this Packers’ defense by its entire body of work, it is actually an elite defense. I believe that Clay Matthews and company became complacent and dependent on the MVP performance they were receiving from Aaron Rodgers and his high flying offense. Facing Drew Brees’ Saints in the season opener was the worst thing that could have happened to them because it made Green Bay too used to playing in shootouts. The results of their games did not discourage this either, so they never really focused on defense and eventually paid for it. A spoiled defensive unit lost their fire and suffered an uncharacteristically pathetic season. This time, however, there is nothing to rest their laurels on. Saddled with the “worst pass defense ever” title, I fully expect this group to rebound and at least come close to the effectiveness of the Green Bay offense, which is a scary thought for opponents.

The NFC North is outrageously high powered and has more dynamic playmakers than any other division. Their defenses all have a few issues to fight off but, as a whole, I do believe it is the best division in football. The NFC East is in that conversation as well, but we will get to them much later. After all, the hometown heroes and world champions deserve the closing act. Our next destination on this NFL Eightfold Path leaves me with more frustrating confusion than football enlightenment. My head takes on my heart in a heated self-debate and I have no idea how that will end up. These teams once made up a division that could compete among the NFL’s best, but each may be taking a huge step backwards.