MLB Playoffs: The 2012 Hunt for October

With the MLB playoffs starting tonight, the NFL has ensured that the average sports fan does not care. I have always felt that baseball’s schedule suffers from America’s new favorite pastime, and that a 100 game season ending during the summer would be a much better idea. Considering how baseball is so statistics oriented, my idea would never work because most season and career records would become unbreakable with so few games to play. However, I maintain that avoiding the overlap with the NFL would be a great idea for Major League Baseball. Regardless of this conflict, I am very excited for what may be the most unpredictable MLB playoffs in recent memory.

Is there better way for both Yankees and Red Sox fans to celebrate the beginning of the playoffs than the firing of Bobby Valentine? From our perspective, the man who always has so much to say finally has to eat his words and suffer unemployment. From Boston’s point of view, their nightmare is finally over and the team can get back on its feet next season. Valentine’s experience was a disaster from the start. One of his first statements as manager was to undermine Jeter’s miracle flip play against Oakland in 2001. Bobby V clearly tried too hard to make himself a part of the rivalry, as opposed to easing into it as the season progressed. Despite everything that is wrong with him, I place all of the blame for this season on the Red Sox management who brought this guy in. Do you blame a gun for firing, or the shooter? Valentine is less of a man and more of an object that Boston’s decision makers should have had no affiliation with. They enabled a person who simply is a certain way. Bobby Valentine is a child, and we should not blame him for being put in a situation that needed an adult. Much like signing Chad Johnson, teams bring these consequences on themselves. As for teams still playing, the playoff races were among the best in history this season. I am personally against the new rule that installed a one game playoff in each league between two wildcard teams. I do not think it is fair that a baseball team can be eliminated from the playoffs with one loss. However, I cannot deny what this new rule did for the division races. The Yankees developed an entirely new sense of urgency to win the AL East and avoid that one game playoff. Regardless of how I feel about it, the MLB has clearly figured something out with this new format. I still believe that it can be improved though, such as making the wildcard round a best of three series. The Braves are a full six games ahead of the Cardinals, who should not even be in the playoffs, but Atlanta can be eliminated tonight after one game.

I do not think I have ever been so clueless on a given playoff picture. Considering how wrong picks are when things are clear, I can only imagine how this plays out for me. Without overthinking things too much, my gut tells me to look for the Tigers and Giants to meet in the World Series, where the Tigers emerge victorious. They have the Triple Crown winner, enough depth in their lineup around him, and arguably the best ace in baseball on the mound. The Giants have by far the best five man rotation, especially since the Nationals made the horrible decision to shut down Stephen Strasburg. I refuse to pick any team playing in the one game playoffs because there are simply too many variables. The Rangers have been in a tailspin for some time, I still cannot buy into the Orioles as a legitimate championship contender, another magical run for the Cardinals is very unlikely and the Braves just do not seem to have enough to compete with elite teams.

Among teams that will definitely be in the real playoffs, things get much more confusing. I have been selling Nationals stock because I do not like the attitude they developed during the tough Strasburg decisions. Shutting him down for the season is a move for their future, but what position is a baseball team from Washington in to assume they have a future in the playoffs? Once the Phillies get back on their feet, this team will become irrelevant. I do not want them to be rewarded for a decision that I so fundamentally disagree with, so consider that disqualification personal. This leaves the Reds and Giants as my two National League favorites. I believe the winner of that matchup will move on to the World Series. For me, San Francisco has the slight advantage. Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner were fantastic this season, and just imagine if Tim Lincecum returns to the form we are used to. Losing Melky Cabrera is tough, but Buster Posey and company should be enough to consistently manufacture runs. Their Brian Wilson-less bullpen is a major concern, especially when matched up against Cincinnati’s Aroldis Chapman. This comparative weakness may become a problem, but the closer by committee concept was enough to fend of the Los Angeles Dodgers down the home stretch. I have faith in the Giants rotation, which can be the driving force behind a National League championship run.

In the American league, I have already ruled out Baltimore. They have been very impressive and can win any game that stays close in the late innings. However, I think we will look back at the 2012 Orioles and define them as the team that helped the Yankees prepare for the playoffs. They really have been great for us and have restored a lot of my Yankee playoff faith. Without Boston, someone had to keep us honest, and they did a great job at doing so. The Oakland A’s have been quite a story with such huge contributions from inexperienced players, but I think that may catch up to them against teams heading for a championship. I think the Rangers will move on to the second round but their play in the second half of the season leaves me no reason to believe they will take out the remaining American League powerhouses. I want to take the Yankees and the league’s best lineup, but their pitching is too much of a question mark for me. Beyond CC Sabathia, I trust no one completely. Hiroki Kuroda has been great, but he and CC need to be near perfect in order to make this work. Ivan Nova is capable but relies heavily on run support to win, which is far from granted in the playoffs. Andy Pettitte is a playoff warhorse, but is far from last decade’s Andy Pettitte. I like the Yankees a lot, but not enough to alter my Tigers prediction. Everything seems to be lining up for Detroit after a narrow division win and Miguel Cabrera’s baseball immortality. Their record was by far the worst of the American League playoff teams, but Verlander is the only pitcher on any surviving team who I think may win every single one of his playoff starts. Despite the Yankees’ many weapons, the Tigers have the best one two batting punch with Cabrera and Fielder. These three players are enough to make a championship run, and Detroit’s supporting cast is not so bad either.

In my opinion, baseball is the hardest sport to predict in any one game. As these games string together, you have the Cardinals 2011 championship run. Anything can happen in any sport that isn’t the NBA, but the MLB is a different animal when it comes to parody. ESPN’s JA Adande made one of my favorite arguments of all time on today’s Around the Horn. You have lockouts in nearly every major sport over a variety of issues. However, one ongoing issue has been enforcing salary caps to create more parity between teams. Depending on tonight’s results, more than half of the playoff teams may be in the bottom half of the MLB’s pay roll. Leave it to the sport with no salary cap to be the fairest of them all. For anyone who talks about the Yankees buying rings, mull that one over. Or just look at where the Red Sox and Mets went with all their money. Or look at the Dodgers win percentage before and after spending all that money (.543 before, .471 after). Baseball is a nightmare to predict, but I do like my two World Series teams if I have to put my money on someone.

In my World Series between San Francisco and Detroit, I have the Tigers winning it all. While San Francisco has the better overall pitching of the two, their lineup is not as much of a guaranteed success and may struggle to score runs in the final few games. Cabrera and Fielder will simply never stop hitting, and I cannot pick against a team that gets guaranteed wins from one pitcher. They may not have the best all-around team, but the Tigers have a few essential pieces that can carry this team. If there are any unexpected contributions from role players, Detroit can run away with this post season. I may not like the new wildcard round, but I admit that it does make for great television. Like I hope most of you do as well, I look forward to tonight’s elimination games as the hunt for October begins.