The AFC
North review carries a different tone than most of the divisions we have
covered. The two perennially elite teams have taken huge hits that suggest at
least a minor regression this season. In Pittsburgh, the injuries are already
piling up and picking up from where last season left off. Mendenhall, Redman,
Harrison, Hampton, DeCastro, and Roethlisberger all enter the season at under
100% healthy. Even if nothing else goes wrong, this will be a tough season for
them. The terrible offensive line play shows little hope for improvement and
new offensive coordinator Todd Haley’s system may not get a fair chance because
of it. In Baltimore, the defensive player of the year has been lost for the
entire season (Terrell Suggs). Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are both one year older
and are dangerously close to the end of their careers. Offensively, there is
not much hope outside of Ray Rice and maybe the emergence of Torrey Smith. Joe
Flacco depends on factors that are currently weakening before him. The biggest
question is where the Bengals finish against two vulnerable veterans of the AFC
North. The Browns are still worlds behind, but there is plenty up in the air
between three major playoff contenders.
4. Browns:
There is not much to analyze about a team among the NFL’s worst struggling to
compete alongside some of the NFL’s best. Because of the comparative weakness
of this conference as a whole, the next three teams are all actually legitimate
Super Bowl contenders. Cleveland, on the other hand, has been in a rebuilding
phase for as long as I can remember. Maybe Brandon Weeden is the answer at
quarterback, Trent Richardson can be a beast that carries the offense, and Josh
Cribbs finally establishes some consistency alongside his big play ability.
However, even with these issues successfully addressed, the Browns do not have
enough to compete with and eventually win this division. Maybe once the great
Steelers and Ravens all retire they can make a run for it against Cincinnati,
but Cleveland’s championship breakthrough does not look like it will come in
the NFL, or anywhere for that matter.
3. Bengals: I
cannot pretend to be sure about the order of the three quality teams in this
division. The only reason I do not have the Bengals higher, despite the previously
stated flaws of the remaining two teams, is because I just do not feel they
have enough to make that leap forward. Andy Dalton, for whatever reason, seems
more vulnerable to the classic sophomore slump than Cam Newton. Benjarvus
Green-Ellis is a nice runner to have, but has never really been relied on as
the primary source of offense. Despite Dalton and star receiver AJ Green’s
production last season, the Bengals’ mindset was always run first. Coming from
New England, I have not seen enough from Green-Ellis to trust that he can take
that kind of workload. We may finally see his first professional fumble this
year, along with a few struggles that come with being a true work horse like
injuries or fatigue. If the offense responds to this by shifting to a more pass
heavy system, my sophomore slump prediction then comes into play. With more
responsibility and only Jermaine Gresham as a quality target to throw to once
Green is double covered, Dalton may have more trouble this season. Their
defense is healthy and capable but not elite or great enough to compare to even
a limping defense from Baltimore or Pittsburgh.
2. Steelers:
The tough playoff loss for my Steelers was an excellent preview of what things
may be like in Pittsburgh throughout 2012-13. Injuries and age have hit this
team harder than any other in football and somehow, they have yet to fully pay
the price for it. Last season carried similar criticisms, especially for Dick
LeBeau’s defensive unit, which somehow ended the season as the NFL’s number one
defense. The Steelers, more than any other team, are defined by their system.
Take their careless attitude towards losing talented players as a great example
of how they do business. Plaxico Burress and Santonio Holmes were both arguably
top ten receivers at the time of their Pittsburgh departure. Despite tough
losses on the roster, they always come back just as good if not better than
before. The Steelers are going through an interesting transitional phase with
Todd Haley now calling the shots on offense, but I trust his system. Pittsburgh
does not rebuild, they reload. So long as Big Ben is on offense and Troy
Polamalu is on defense, the surrounding pieces will work something out well
enough to maintain this team’s identity. The reason I cannot give my team the
division title this season is mistakes. We are arguably the most mistake prone
team in the NFL because our quarterback would rather die than admit defeat. Ben
gets himself in way too much trouble by holding onto the ball for too long,
eventually getting sacked and possibly injured. This is also accompanied by
many fumbles and ill-advised passes that become interceptions. Another cause of
these miscues is the pitiful offensive line. If our defense is the Steel Curtain,
the high school level offensive line is the Teflon Curtain. Roethlisberger can
outplay Joe Flacco any day and I may even argue that our defense is still
superior to Baltimore’s as well, but the unforgivable mistakes will eventually
unravel and dismantle my favorite team.
1. Baltimore:
In contrast to my last point about Pittsburgh, this Ravens team never seems to
make any mistakes. They can be beat by a team that simply has more positives,
but Baltimore commits next to zero negatives, which is a huge advantage. While
they may not have as many strengths as their rivals, three things keep the Ravens
from losing games. First of all, I may look down on Flacco’s ability as a
quarterback but he does know how to not screw up. He traditionally does his job
well enough for their others pieces to win him the game. The second reason, Ray
Rice, is by far the division’s best playmaker. He can carry the Ravens’
offense, hold onto the ball, and consistently make things happen for them so
their underwhelming passing game has plenty of leniency. The third factor that
brings home this victory is their outstanding offensive line, which is among
the league’s best. They prevent the pressure that causes offensive mistakes.
While I do have faith in Roethlisberger, everything seems to be working against
him and he may or may not survive any given game. Baltimore, however, plays
mistake free football and can make enough plays to let a strong defensive
effort win games for them. Even without the elite pass rush from Suggs, Lewis
and Reed will keep that Ravens defense together and strong enough to win this
powerful but limping division.
It seems odd
to have no change in the order of last season’s AFC North standings after an
offseason in which this division saw so much change. Despite the many moving
pieces, I do not feel that any one team made significant enough strides to
overtake another. The most likely leap frog would be Cinci taking the runner up
spot away from Pittsburgh, but I am not buying Andy Dalton as much as most
people are after his promising rookie year. What we may see is a similar order
within the AFC North but the division as a whole will not stack up so well
against AFC teams with rising stock like the Texans or Broncos. Because the
North is traditionally the AFC’s best division, losing ground may only level
the playing field. Teams in other divisions will work hard to limit them to
only one playoff team this season. While I still believe two will make it, the
Steelers and Ravens have a lot to worry about.
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