So You're Saying There's A Chance: The NBA SRG

You could argue that both NBA Conference Finals series began predictably, with arguably the NBA’s two most dominant teams taking care of business at home. In the West, the Spurs continued to execute their offense to perfection and extended their winning streak to an incredible twenty games. In the East, the Heat used their overwhelming, top-heavy offense and suffocating defense against a Celtics team that had previously found the fountain of youth during this playoff run. Boston was seemingly sent back to square one after two tough losses, especially the more questionable outcome in game two. These two tough scenarios led to one of the more telling moments of truth that any playoff series has to offer. A team that goes home for game three after losing the opening two road games faces what I call the Self Respect Game (SRG).

A 2-0 deficit in a series, while unfortunate, does not guarantee anything, but a 3-0 deficit would so that makes this game three pivotal. Teams with even the slightest degree of self-respect will use their home crowd, smell their opponent’s slight scent of complacency, and rally together for a win to make the series much more interesting. Teams that lack that self-respect will fold under the pressure of a 2-0 deficit and suffer what is basically the nail in the coffin. Until an NBA team overcomes a 3-0 hole, I’ll consider a series over when the underdog fails to win the all-important Self Respect Game. Only 5.7% of teams down 2-0 have ever rallied back to win the series, but both OKC and Boston made giant leaps toward possibly raising this abysmal statistic by winning their SRGs. Both are still alive and have a fighting chance but my question for today is which team has the better chance to stay alive?

By strict basketball analysis, the Spurs are the best team in the NBA by far. Their stars have fought off age and continued to dominate, especially offensively. In addition to this they have considerable depth through their role players that make the team much younger than most people would expect. Believe it or not, other than the Thunder, the Spurs are actually the youngest team left standing right now. So this is not your typical closing window conversation, the Spurs have plenty left in the tank. For these reasons and more, the Thunder have a lot on their plate. However, they may have the talent to somehow take care of it. I actually believe that the Thunder are the better team in this series, and that their struggles can be explained by their playoff path.

OKC’s first two opponents were the Mavericks and Lakers, who both have very stagnant offenses. Durant and company spent entire games watching Kobe drain shot clocks and waiting for Dirk to shoot a fade-away jumper. They then suffered a shock to their system when they ran into the fastest team in the league and make no mistake, the Spurs are the fastest team in the league. Do not be fooled by the flashiness and athleticism of the Heat offense because as fast as Lebron and Wade are, nothing moves faster on the court than the ball. The quickness and decisiveness of the Spurs’ passing is unlike anything I have seen in the NBA, trust me these guys are a less sexy Showtime Lakers. Once OKC’s heads caught up with what was actually going on, their talent took over and they blew the Spurs out in game three. The only reason I do not think they can come back to win the entire series is because a team led by Greg Popovich, Tony Parker and Tim Duncan will not blow a series in which they had a two game lead. Other than the strength of their intangibles, however, I honestly think the Thunder would have taken the best of seven games.

The Eastern Conference Finals, despite similar numbers, tell a very different story. The Miami Heat are more heavily favored than the Spurs are, and it shows when you look at the night and day differences between these two teams. I admit, my negativity and personal dislike for the Heat creates a hopeless attitude that suggests no one can beat them, but even from a neutral perspective I cannot see the Celtics pulling this one off. My belief does take a hit when you consider the fact that under fair officiating, the Celtics should actually have a 2-1 series lead right now, but what transpired late in games two and three serve as my conclusion on this debate. Yes, the Cs got robbed in overtime, but the fact that they blew their third quarter lead showed that while they have both lingering talent from Garnett/Pierce and a whopping mismatch at point guard with the magnificent Rajan Rondo, they simply cannot outlast Miami for four quarters. They almost blew a monumental 24 point lead in the fourth quarter alone Friday night. In game two, Wade took an entire first half off, Rondo dropped 44, and the Heat won. Bad calls or not, that tells me all I need to hear.

I am afraid that game three was a classic case of my Self Respect Game concept. Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett are two of the greatest competitors I have ever seen; their drive with Rondo’s excellence made game three the one to win. Whether it is because I am pessimistic or because I am right, I fear that game may be the only one they do win. When you look at Miami’s few weaknesses, the Celtics do not have what it takes to exploit them. Sub-par rebounding and a terrible bench, I will let you guess which team I am referring to there because even I do not know. The Heat can be had somehow, I know that much, but it will take a team that can at least challenge them athletically with a minimum of seven quality players. The Celtics wrote the script that Miami copied with their Avengers Assemble method of building a roster; pulling unfulfilled stars from all corners of the NBA was a concept that started in Boston when the original “Big 3” came together. If the bench steps up again, Lebron and Wade are at least contained, and Bosh does not return, there is a chance for Boston fans and Heat haters everywhere, but those are a few too many necessities for my taste.

If the NBA playoffs were predictable, we would just end them now. Either of these underdogs are capable of defying the odds and advancing to the championship. In my opinion, the Thunder are the much more likely miracle, so much so that I would not even consider their comeback overly miraculous. If the magic word for the Thunder was their talent, the Celtics’ word of the day is their pride. I love that about them and it is necessary for any team aspiring to be champions. However, pride and the intangibles have to be the finishing touch that takes an already capable team over the top. Your ability and potential, as your foundation, ultimately win a series. Pride alone only keeps you from being swept.