NBA Finals 2012

The NBA always has been the most predictable of the major sports, with a small group of elite teams and a finite number of championship possibilities. This year’s matchup should come as no surprise; Miami and OKC occupied the number one and two spots in the NBA’s pre-season power rankings. Even in a compressed season, the two conference champions have proven that they are simply too talented to be taken out in a best of seven series in a league with aging talent and less than ten legitimate contenders. Miami’s summer of 2010 stunt seemingly rigged the league in their favor, however from Dallas last season to Boston last week, the Heat have been tested. The three superstars have cleared a path to the finals with next to zero contributions from their supporting cast, but they will now face their toughest test yet to see if three players really can win a championship.

In the other corner are the Oklahoma City Thunder, whose youthful exuberance and unrelenting energy nicely compliment their talent and depth. Their “Big 3” combination of Durant, Westbrook and Harden quietly put up more points than Miami’s 3 by a narrow margin (68.4 vs. 67.2). Between this and how well the rest of their roster continues to perform, KD and company may be this season’s Mavericks. Another significant detail is while the Heat were edging out the Celtics in game seven, the Thunder had already completed a much more impressive playoff run. Their competition was filled with dynasties and defending champions, as opposed to the Heat’s run. Most of their opponents were not even playoff ready (Knicks/Pacers). Rather than tell you about the Thunder playoff run myself, Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich should. His post-game conference after his Spurs were eliminated did not mourn the loss of his playoff chances; it instead praised the Thunder’s accomplishment and how they deserved it. I suppose winning as much as he has helps someone look at the big picture, but so long as Belichick still exists I am going to appreciate a gracious press conference. Anyway, Popovich pointed out that the Thunder defeated three teams in this post-season that together, won ten of the past thirteen championships. If they beat the Heat, it will be eleven of the past thirteen. If that is not a literal passing of the NBA torch, I have no idea what is.

In terms of this next series, I believe the entire outcome hangs in the balance of one factor. OKC is a primarily offensive team that plays good but not elite defense. Miami’s offense is however many points the big three can score, which on a great day is about 75, and then what little offense the rest of the team can manage. However, their defense is the best in the NBA and can shut down even the most prolific systems. The Thunder offense against the Heat defense will determine the series, because we basically know what we are going to see at the other end of the floor, which is high 90s and possibly 100 from the Heat offense if the bench is not a complete embarrassment. What remains to be seen is whether or not OKC can score over 100 consistently against the Heat defense. You could argue that the Thunder have not seen a defense nearly as tough as Miami’s. You could also argue that between the disgraceful Knicks “system”, a Pacers team that lacks a dominant scorer, and an old Celtics team, the Heat have not faced an offense nearly as good as Durant and company. Boston’s only young player consistently torched the Heat, and OKC has a few of those.

It was nice to see the Thunder put an end to criticisms like “too young” or “inexperienced”. As coach Scott Brooks added, “our goal was never to make the finals, it was to win a championship.” That puts an end to the upcoming criticism that they are complacent with what is already the best season in the young franchise’s history. I do not doubt their ability and that between their talent and depth, they are the best pure team in the NBA. However, the Heat are a completely different animal that is just plain unfair to deal with. The reason I think a Heat championship is inevitable is because of the few factors Heat opponents are taking for granted. Bosh is only just returning from an injury that kept him out through the majority of these playoffs, Wade has consistently taken entire first halves off, and the Heat continue to miss clutch shots that could win games. If even one of those things changes in Miami’s favor, I would assume even the Thunder have no chance. I am almost positive at least one of those three factors will because that is simply too much to hope for as a “Heat-hater”. I said in my last NBA article that the Thunder were only down 2-0 in their series against the Spurs because their offense was so fast and superior to previous their opponents, and that it was a shock to their system. If they suffer a similar start due to the speed and dominance of the Heat’s defense, another big comeback would be impossible.