The NFL Eightfold Path: NFC East

Throughout the past two weeks, we have gone on a division by division journey in the hopes of truly understanding how the NFL is set up this season and how each team is looking as week one approaches. We started with the NFC West, where I had the 49ers repeating as division champs without much trouble. We then moved on to the AFC West, where I had the Chiefs surprising Peyton’s Broncos, who still advanced as a wildcard. In the NFC North, the Packers took care of business despite tough competition and the Bears moved on as an NFC wild card. The AFC North saw the Ravens and Steelers limp faster than Bengals could run as both held off their young rivals and made the playoffs. The Texans dominated the AFC South as the remaining three teams failed to reach winning records. The NFC South saw a shift in the balance of power as the Falcons overtook the Saints after Cam Newton had his signature win in week 17. Both New Orleans and Atlanta moved on to the playoffs, which can only mean one thing. The NFC East has traditionally been the best division in football, but last season the Giants won it with only nine wins. This season, the group as a whole will look to improve on last year’s effort, but I only see one moving on to playoff competition. It has become a bold statement to limit this division to one playoff team, but the rest of the NFC has caught up to the East, and these are not the old days when the Giants and company led the NFC’s only great division. With all that said, our NFL Eightfold Path stays home for our final destination as we figure out who wins this thing.

4. Redskins: Robert Griffin III is the X factor here who will almost single handedly guide Washington to wins or losses. I do believe in RG3, but what we are asking of him goes above and beyond where the rest of his team is ready to go. The Redskins did have a competitive defense last season but, with improved offenses around them, I think that will be put to the test. The defense that Washington fans take for granted as they hope for an improved offense may be ripped out from under them despite however many sacks Brian Orakpo can pile up. Mike Shanahan continues to stretch whatever good will his two career rings still hold for him and has helped lead this team straight into the ground with dysfunctional relationships and poor decisions. The Redskins, however, may be a very legitimate last place team in terms of playing spoiler against division rivals. Their last two games are against the Eagles and Cowboys, respectively, and I predict that everyone in New York will be big fans of the Washington Redskins by the time this regular season ends. RG3 will have an important place in this league, but he will not see this playoffs this season.

3. Cowboys: Every season, the Cowboys are somebody’s Super Bowl prediction, and I have no idea why. They have talent, but are not the most talented team. And we all know how well they play from December through the playoffs. For whatever reason, every ESPN talking head wants to be the person who predicts the return of the championship Cowboys. I like this team’s talent as much as anyone, but there is way too much uncertainty to have them in the playoffs in this great conference, let alone any Super Bowl talk. Dez Bryant is a walking red flag, Jason Witten has no spleen, and Romo will likely be as unreliable as ever despite his abilities. Also, I cannot pick a team to win its division when they have had so much trouble beating the two teams ahead of them. Superman is great too but, in a division against Kryptonite Thing 1 and 2, I do not love his chances. The secondary has taken huge strides and this defense will be what Rob Ryan’s squad was supposed to be last season. However, the nature of this team is still susceptible to blown leads and other laughable errors that will prevent them from reaching their full potential. Dallas is not the most talented team in this division and they are also not the most clutch. Those two teams are why I have them finishing third.

2. Eagles: I would have this team winning the division if I had more faith in Mike Vick’s health. With him playing all season, I say this team loses three games and earns themselves a bye week. However, if he loses three games and plays ten or twelve, this team loses enough ground to settle for second. In my scenario, this misses the playoffs. Mike Vick either needs to be healthy for an entire season, which is unlikely, or they need to be perfect while he is playing, which is also unlikely. Much like last season, Philly will be the team that no one wants to make the playoffs because of how high their highs can be. Fortunately for those teams, I do not believe they will. LeSean McCoy has emerged as an elite runner and I expect a stronger season from Desean Jackson, who can stop complaining now that he has his money. There will be games leaving experts saying this is the Eagles’ year to win it all, but their downfall will be the need to string those games together. You cannot ask Vick to be conservative while still being effective; he has to put himself in harm’s way in order to be one of the most dangerous weapons in football. Unfortunately, that leads Philadelphia to walk a thin line between dream team and nightmare. Their talent is greater than Dallas’, but there is just as much risk. It takes a sure thing to beat these two talented yet unpredictable teams.

1. Giants: Last time the Giants won it all, they got off to a hot start the following season, which came crashing down after an unexpected Monday Night Football loss to the Cleveland Browns. They hung on long enough to earn a bye week, but lost in the divisional round to none other than the Philadelphia Eagles. They ran out of gas at the wrong time, but this team is different. They are seasoned veterans when it comes to winning a championship and will be more prepared than they were for their last adventure. Michael Strahan and Amani Toomer retiring was a tough adjustment for the Giants to make. Losing two “old reliable” types may have hurt their chances in the postseason. This season, they have only lost a declining Brandon Jacobs. I like David Wilson to back up Ahmad Bradshaw once AB injures his foot. Look for huge contributions from their dynamic receiving duo of Hakeem Nicks and the salsa dancing Victor Cruz, but also keep an eye out for Martellus Bennett. The Giants have always made tight ends look great in their system, and the “Black Unicorn” will be no exception. If his self-awarded nickname is any indication, he will at least be interesting to watch, but Eli will make him feel right at home in a place where mediocre tight ends look like superstars. This is Eli’s first season starting off as an elite quarterback, and I expect him to be the one factor that gives the Giants some separation from their rivals. Notice how the criticism for the previous three QBs involved us not knowing what to expect due to some inconsistencies. Eli has become a model of consistency and reliability, and who knew we would say that after only a few seasons ago. As I mentioned in my AFC West article, people are done saying the Giants “could have had Phillip Rivers.” The relentless pass rush from big blue is almost effortless with the best pass rushing defensive line of the past decade. Their four horsemen of the apocalypse give a questionable secondary a lot of leeway. There may not be a repeat champion this season, but I do like the G-Men to win this tough division.

The Redskins are actually the main reason I did not give a wildcard spot to the Cowboys or Eagles. In this division, teams beat each other up too much and may eventually be passed up by wildcards from other divisions. RG3 could be that guy to bring down another team’s hopes, which is as satisfying as it gets for a team with a losing record. In a division with so many question marks, I choose to go with the one sure thing. The Giants identity is solidified by their pass rush and Eli’s outstanding leadership by example (sorry Tiki). New York has quietly become like the Steelers or Patriots in the sense that their system speaks for itself and, while a few pieces change, the constants carry the team to victory. Lastly, I do not want to get too into this aspect of the game but I am stunned by how much the Cowboys have trash talked their way to this season opener. And you wonder why everyone outside of your actual fans hates you. For one thing, they have absolutely no reason to justify this talk and, secondly, giving the defending champions additional motivation for the season opener has to be the dumbest thing since the last thing Jerry Jones said. I know that there is no rooting in the press box, but I hope JPP, Tuck and Osi rip Romo apart tonight. The NFL Eightfold Path was an inspiring idea, but I think the entire point of enlightenment is that we are never fully there. We may experience it, but the process of getting there is perpetual. Throughout this season, we will check in on our teams and predictions; this eight part series was living proof that there is no such thing as too much football talk. For right now, however, let us celebrate the return of America’s favorite game.

The NFL Eightfold Path: AFC East

If I had to bet everything I own on one division winner, it would be the New England Patriots. There is no reason to believe that the Patriots will face much competition in another predictable regular season ending in home field advantage and eventual playoff disappointment. The only question for them is whether or not they can break from that formula and revert to the champions of Brady’s earlier years. What lies behind them is interesting but somewhat anticlimactic as well. The three teams can end up in any order, but at the same time I do not expect any of them to make the playoffs. There is reason to believe in each team following New England, but I like Denver and Pittsburgh as more likely wildcards. It seems as if the only way to the playoffs is to follow the blueprints made by the Dolphins the year the wildcat was brought to the NFL. Someone has to take a few risks and hope for a few lucky breaks in return.

4. Dolphins: I always look more favorably towards the team that receives HBO’s Hard Knocks because, as a fan, I feel involved in their training camp experience. The insider’s look at what goes on behind closed doors can make any team more appealing to viewers. Sadly, Miami just does not have enough going on to convince me that they can consistently put up points or stop other teams from doing just that. They have individual playmakers, such as the always powerful Cameron Wake or the emergence of Reggie Bush, who has the ability to carry this offense if he stays healthy. Between Ryan Tannehill and a disappointing receiving core, the Dolphins’ offense will not be able to get off the ground. While Reggie has come a long way, he still is not a workhorse. In an easy division, the Dolphins can squeak out a few wins to stay out of the NFL basement, but it is going to be a tough season in Miami.

3. Bills: Most people feel the Bills will be the runner up in this division and may be the only team that can give New England a fight. I understand their reasoning because outside of the Patriots, the Bills actually have the division’s best quarterback, running back, and receiver all on the same offense. With the addition of elite pass rusher Mario Williams, the Buffalo defense should be a force to be reckoned with as well. All signs lead to a strong showing from the Bills except one. It is a pretty underwhelming reason, but a hunch tells me to not overreact to the Buffalo Bills looking pretty good. Every season, the Bills seem to look great and start the season with a 4-0 record or something of that nature. Then, they fade dramatically and are ultimately a six win team. This season, anything less than 4-0 should mean disaster for a team that is known to lose momentum as the season goes on. The Bills are finally competitive on paper, but I still cannot associate this organization with a winning record. After all, the Ryan Fitzpatrick and Stevie Johnson connection has been there for years. Despite the great signing of Williams, the team as a whole is not very different at all. Sure, if the Jets score zero touchdowns this year then Buffalo will have a clear path at second place. However, I still say the Bills end up in the third spot.

2. Jets: The Jets may have the worst offense in football and their team as a whole is a walking circus. We get it, and there is no degree of Jets criticism that we have not already heard. What we have not heard as often is what I would like to focus on first, which is the resurgence of Rex Ryan’s defense. The lack of a pass rush has hurt the Jets defense as a whole and has eased them out of the elite category. However, I think role players such as Aaron Maybin and first round draft pick Quentin Coples will generate enough pressure to let the league’s best secondary lock down opposing receivers. Bart Scott and David Harris are the best middle linebacker combination outside of San Francisco. They and a solid defensive line can stuff the run while the young edge rushers make names for themselves. I think the Jets defense is set to make a return to what we saw a couple of years ago when Rex first arrived. Sanchez and the offense are obviously a train wreck, which is why the Jets still cannot catch the Patriots this season, but their defense is better than either Buffalo unit. If the offense can limit their turnovers and live with being mediocre, they will accidentally score enough points for that defense to win games.

1. Patriots: Even with a historically bad defense, there is nothing stopping the Patriots from casually winning another fourteen games this season. Opposing teams simply cannot keep up with their machine of an offense and repeatedly turn the ball over when they try doing so. I am most likely alone on this one, but I believe Tom Brady has gotten worse over the years. During his championship runs, he would spread the ball out and made the New England offense as unpredictable as it was effective. Now, Brady has severe tunnel vision for two targets with Welker and Gronkowski, especially in clutch situations. He can easily fix this, but the dependence on these two pass catchers makes the Patriots not easy to stop, but at least easy to figure out. This allowed the creation of a formula that could actually defeat them, but only the Giants seem to have it figured out and executed it. The first requirement is that you have a good pass rush without blitzing. The pressure created by the basic four man rush creates a need for a quick release from Brady, but he has no problem with this. After all, his options are a wide receiver that runs five yard routes and a tight end that runs ten yard routes. The Pats have lacked any threat beyond these distances, so the Giants stack most of their coverage in the five to ten yard range, creating a smokescreen of G-Men for Brady to throw into. Only one or two guys stay deep just in case, which is enough of a safety net to prevent a big play from a small play team. While the Pats seem intricate, they only operate within the hash marks of a five to ten yard depth, which is a grand approximate total of 60 yards. Each of the Giants in this area only have about 15 yards of surface area to cover, which is not exactly challenging to a professional linebacker or safety. This is very limiting to New England’s offense, even for someone with Brady’s accuracy. When the Giants give Brady so little time to throw into such a small and crowded window, you get the biggest upsets in NFL history. Beating the Pats defense is then easy. Just show up.

I know I went more into the Patriots’ scheme than their actual chances this season, but that is because their path is obvious. They will win the AFC East and we will measure their success by their fate in the playoffs. The addition of Brandon Lloyd may help defeat the formula, but even with him there Brady has to make the conscious effort to get him involved. The only twist ending would be if a team without Eli Manning 1. figures this winning formula out and 2. can actually do it. The AFC East is a mystery beyond this point, but I have faith in the Jets’ ability to be defined by their strengths instead of their weaknesses. It has become popular to mock them, probably because the combined efforts of Sanchez and Tebow are pretty funny. But I believe the defensive one trick pony will follow its offensive counterpart in these standings. The Bills are not quite there yet as whole, and I fear another potentially strong start will go to waste in upstate New York. As a whole, this division is one Patriots away from being among the lowest of the low. I am happy to say that for our final stop on my NFL Eightfold Path seeks to reclaim its title as the NFL’s best division. They took a hit in the 2011 regular season but eventually emerged from a thick veil of mediocrity with a Super Bowl champion. For our final stop, we will pay the defending champion Giants a visit and, hopefully, achieve football enlightenment.

The NFL Eightfold Path: NFC South

The NFC South is primarily known for its quarterbacks and its parody. Teams have frequently been able to go from worst to first despite tough competition. I cannot say the Bucs are prepared to do this, but the fact remains that this division is no stranger to surprises. The Saints’ bounty scandal and suspensions level the playing field and chip away at the supreme level of talent in New Orleans, but whether or not it will be enough to dethrone the division champs remains to be seen. Cam Newton is certainly a fun story but, in order to progress as a player, his NFL relevance will have to equal his fantasy football importance. There is a big leap between being a great player on a bad team and elevating that team to playoff contention. The Falcons had a solid season brought to a violent end by the eventual Super Bowl champions, and will compete with the remaining two underdogs to chase after the room left by the Saints’ disastrous offseason.

4. Buccaneers: Based on the eye test alone, I believe this was the worst team in football last season. They may not have had the worst record, but their play and effort were nonexistent throughout the second half of the season. Josh Freeman’s development took a huge step backwards and I could not even get a fair read on their defense because they were so apathetic. With Vincent Jackson bringing some life back into Freeman’s passing offense, I am sure Tampa will be more respectable as a team, but their record may be just as bad. I wish there was more to say about the Buccaneers, but in this division and conference they simply do not stack up well enough to be competitive. In the NFC, there are few easy wins, and the Bucs are one of them.

3. Panthers: Cam Newton pieced together the most impressive personal rookie season in NFL history. He was the downfall of the Green Bay defense, dominated both the air and ground, and single handedly revived Steve Smith’s dynamic career. The key word behind his accomplishments is personal because while he did make the Panthers better, it still felt like more of a fantasy football exhibition than a team making a playoff push. Last year, I had the Panthers as the second best NFL offseason, next to only the “dream team” Eagles. Not only did I have faith in Cam, but the moves made to hang onto their talent and bring in some new free agents were impressive to me as well. With all this said, I was clearly on the Carolina bandwagon, however this year’s perceived playoff chances may be a slight overreaction. I still see Newton and company as an eight win team, which would be another improvement. Despite being third here, the Panthers are certainly trending in the right direction. The return of John Beason at middle linebacker will single handedly fix most of their defensive issues. He is basically Pat Willis on a lesser team. With Williams and Stewart joining Cam’s ground efforts, Carolina can definitely lead the NFL in rushing, which would be great for the other aspects of this very promising team.

2. Saints: Drew Brees shattered records last season and should be a guarantee to win almost any division by himself. In addition to this record setting aerial assault, the Saints quietly have an excellent and versatile running game as well. With Pierre Thomas as the consistency, Darren Sproles for big plays, and an undetermined amount of production from a now healthy Mark Ingram, this team would win half of their games with a terrible quarterback. The biggest story here is obviously the bounty scandal and the suspensions that stripped New Orleans of a defensive coordinator, a head coach, a middle linebacker and everyone else affected by a process that I may or may not despise. While the commissioner’s habits are for another day, we are forced to move on taking into account these penalties. At face value, the Saints still have what makes them dominant. Their many offensive weapons are still intact, however in a strong division there may be more to winning than firepower. Allegedly, Sean Payton is the NFL’s best and most intricate play caller. I am sure Drew Brees and what is left of the coaching staff can piece something effective together, but I cannot imagine a repeat of last season without Payton calling the shots. Without the head coach that built this phenomenal offense, we can expect at least a slight dip in production. Without a shutdown defense, this slight decrease on offense may be enough to give the division away to a more complete team.

1. Falcons: Complete is the first word that comes to mind when I think of the Atlanta Falcons. Michael Turner has made them one of the best ground and pound teams in the NFL, and he now has the luxury of Matt Ryan’s one-two punch of receivers. Roddy White and Julio Jones can take the NFL’s best wide receiver duo title this season. Anytime someone as elite as Roddy White may lose his number one receiver spot to a young player that the team essentially traded the General Manager’s house for, you know you have something special. Defensively, Atlanta has playmakers but has always been one dominant middle linebacker away from being as complete on defense as they are on offense. I always wanted to photoshop John Beason onto their roster to just see what happens. Either way, Atlanta has what it takes to win this division because they are finally becoming as dynamic as they are balanced. Turner may be aging but, with those two outside weapons, he is about to receive a lot more room to run. Matt Ryan is not elite, but has always been able to maintain a great offense as long as the pieces are already in place. My main concern with this team is their dramatic decrease in performance once the playoffs arrive. They are the only team in this division to not appear in a Super Bowl in the past decade. From Mike Vick’s era to Matt Ryan’s, they can seemingly never reach the Promised Land. Maybe part of it is just bad luck when you consider the fact that their last two eliminations were to eventual Super Bowl champions. Despite this coincidence, I do not give them a break. Anyone with the awful nickname “Matty Ice” should be able to elevate his play in the biggest games, especially now that his supporting cast is fantastic. I have the Falcons winning this division, but the regular season has never exactly been their problem.

I briefly mentioned NFC South quarterbacks earlier, and I would someday like to find which division really is the best collection of four quarterbacks. My first impression is between here and the NFC East, but when the time comes it could be anyone according to the numbers. In terms of this season’s results, I do think the Saints may lose control of this division, but I still expect them to advance to the playoffs. This would leave the last spot to a fight between the winner of the Bears-Lions conflict and the NFC East runner up. I may not have given Carolina as much credit as people would expect after the progress they made last season, but I do believe Cam Newton will determine the winner of this division when they play the Saints in week 17. That one game may be all that separates the two top teams if Cam is able to upset Drew Brees and a limping New Orleans Saints. Next time, we have finally made our way home on our NFL path of enlightenment. It is almost time to play the yearly game of figuring out the order of the AFC East teams behind the Patriots.

The NFL Eightfold Path: AFC South

The AFC South will be nominated for the honor of the NFL’s worst division. The Colts carried the struggling group for years with occasional appearances from the Jaguars or Titans. Now, however, the shadow cast by Peyton Manning over the remaining three teams is gone, leaving room for a new perennial division champion. Last season, the traditionally terrible Texans answered this call and became the AFC’s best team before eventually being brought down hard by multiple injuries. In 2012-13, we get to find out whether or not their success is temporary. In a foursome that will almost certainly be held to one playoff team, winning the division becomes even more crucial. I took a week off to settle back at school, but now it is time to rapid fire these last few divisions before Wednesday night kickoff in MetLife.

4. Colts: Andrew Luck’s potential is almost enough to sneak Indy up to third place in my projections, but there was a lot more missing from this team than Peyton Manning last season. The Colts used to get away with an underwhelming running game or defense because one of history’s greatest players would baby them to victory. Luck will be a serviceable replacement, but he will need more help than Peyton ever required to push this mediocre team into playoff contention. I do believe that the Colts were never the NFL’s worst team and simply suffered from the shock value of Manning’s injury, especially when they started the season expecting a return at some point. This season should be better, but their clear intentions are to slowly rebuild behind the slow and steady development of the pieces they currently have in place. Donald Brown is a decent enough weapon to support Luck and Reggie Wayne’s career is not quite over yet, so there is reason to believe that the Colts do not have reservations for last place this season. While I am not sold enough to rank them above any of the next three teams, Luck is capable of as many as seven wins this season.

3. Jaguars: With Maurice Jones-Drew leading the NFL in rushing last season, the Jags still finished the season with the NFL’s worst offense. This off-season’s holdout stressed the importance of an improvement from sophomore quarterback Blaine Gabbert. To me, Gabbert was the NFL’s worst starting QB last season. He has actually looked good throughout the preseason, but I try not to overreact to exhibition play. I am sure he will not be as bad, but a huge problem for Jacksonville will be if Mojo is not as good. Historically, players who hold out over contract disputes are less durable and, ultimately, less productive. If Jones-Drew struggles or is anything less than healthy and spectacular, Gabbert and company may be in for a long season. Expect a more balanced attack from the Jags, but not a much more effective one. The Jaguars quietly have a strong defense and Justin Blackmon appears to have potential as a playmaking receiver, so they have enough to finish ahead of a team that is going through a compete rebuilding phase. However, the playoffs are most likely out of the question here as well.

2. Titans: In contrast to the holdout point made about Mojo, Tennessee’s Chris Johnson seems to be set up for a huge season. Last year, he suffered career lows in most statistical categories, which was likely a consequence of not showing up at training camp and demanding a bigger contract. This season, we can expect a more typical CJ2K effort, especially with a rookie-led offense that will rely on Johnson’s production. I would not consider the Titans among the legitimate playoff contenders despite the impressive push they made towards the end of last season. Jake Locker’s decision making is still questionable and Kenny Britt’s health is not trustworthy enough to assume Tennessee will have weapons outside of Chris Johnson. Defensively, they are a far cry from the Titans that had Albert Haynesworth in his prime. That team used to dominate the line of scrimmage and dictate the pace of the game. Now, they lack playmakers and Locker may find himself in a few uncomfortable shootouts that will make him more vulnerable to mistakes. Once this Tennessee team falls behind and loses the ability to consistently run the ball, they will struggle to keep up with better teams.

1. Texans: I believe Houston will be the only team in the AFC South to win more than eight games. They have become an elite team that, like New England, benefits from having six very winnable games from division rivalries. With arguably the best all-around running back in football, Arian Foster, the impressive connection between Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson is almost overlooked now. If they can stay healthy, the Texans are in a great position to make a Super Bowl run. They may have lost Mario Williams this off-season to Buffalo, but they won games last season without him and other key players who will be returning. JJ Watt serves as their new defensive anchor and is more than capable of creating similar chaos for opposing quarterbacks. Houston has no real weakness; they just have to become more exceptional in order to improve after last season’s strong effort against a lot of adversity. Their passing game has to be at least close to the threat of their running game, which would make them nearly unstoppable. The Texans should run away with this division, the only question is whether or not they have enough to win it all.

The AFC South will likely be dominated by one team yet again, but this time Peyton’s Colts have handed the keys over to Matt Schaub’s Texans. Houston needs to take advantage of this division’s weakened state and seize the opportunity they have been given. The only remaining mystery is whether the Titans or another likely contender have what it takes to push another team out of the playoff picture. Tomorrow, we will look at what is traditionally the NFL’s most unpredictable division. This will include an exiled coach, some massive underachievers and an attempt to live up to a rookie season for the ages.

The NFL Eightfold Path: AFC North

The AFC North review carries a different tone than most of the divisions we have covered. The two perennially elite teams have taken huge hits that suggest at least a minor regression this season. In Pittsburgh, the injuries are already piling up and picking up from where last season left off. Mendenhall, Redman, Harrison, Hampton, DeCastro, and Roethlisberger all enter the season at under 100% healthy. Even if nothing else goes wrong, this will be a tough season for them. The terrible offensive line play shows little hope for improvement and new offensive coordinator Todd Haley’s system may not get a fair chance because of it. In Baltimore, the defensive player of the year has been lost for the entire season (Terrell Suggs). Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are both one year older and are dangerously close to the end of their careers. Offensively, there is not much hope outside of Ray Rice and maybe the emergence of Torrey Smith. Joe Flacco depends on factors that are currently weakening before him. The biggest question is where the Bengals finish against two vulnerable veterans of the AFC North. The Browns are still worlds behind, but there is plenty up in the air between three major playoff contenders.

4. Browns: There is not much to analyze about a team among the NFL’s worst struggling to compete alongside some of the NFL’s best. Because of the comparative weakness of this conference as a whole, the next three teams are all actually legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Cleveland, on the other hand, has been in a rebuilding phase for as long as I can remember. Maybe Brandon Weeden is the answer at quarterback, Trent Richardson can be a beast that carries the offense, and Josh Cribbs finally establishes some consistency alongside his big play ability. However, even with these issues successfully addressed, the Browns do not have enough to compete with and eventually win this division. Maybe once the great Steelers and Ravens all retire they can make a run for it against Cincinnati, but Cleveland’s championship breakthrough does not look like it will come in the NFL, or anywhere for that matter.

3. Bengals: I cannot pretend to be sure about the order of the three quality teams in this division. The only reason I do not have the Bengals higher, despite the previously stated flaws of the remaining two teams, is because I just do not feel they have enough to make that leap forward. Andy Dalton, for whatever reason, seems more vulnerable to the classic sophomore slump than Cam Newton. Benjarvus Green-Ellis is a nice runner to have, but has never really been relied on as the primary source of offense. Despite Dalton and star receiver AJ Green’s production last season, the Bengals’ mindset was always run first. Coming from New England, I have not seen enough from Green-Ellis to trust that he can take that kind of workload. We may finally see his first professional fumble this year, along with a few struggles that come with being a true work horse like injuries or fatigue. If the offense responds to this by shifting to a more pass heavy system, my sophomore slump prediction then comes into play. With more responsibility and only Jermaine Gresham as a quality target to throw to once Green is double covered, Dalton may have more trouble this season. Their defense is healthy and capable but not elite or great enough to compare to even a limping defense from Baltimore or Pittsburgh.

2. Steelers: The tough playoff loss for my Steelers was an excellent preview of what things may be like in Pittsburgh throughout 2012-13. Injuries and age have hit this team harder than any other in football and somehow, they have yet to fully pay the price for it. Last season carried similar criticisms, especially for Dick LeBeau’s defensive unit, which somehow ended the season as the NFL’s number one defense. The Steelers, more than any other team, are defined by their system. Take their careless attitude towards losing talented players as a great example of how they do business. Plaxico Burress and Santonio Holmes were both arguably top ten receivers at the time of their Pittsburgh departure. Despite tough losses on the roster, they always come back just as good if not better than before. The Steelers are going through an interesting transitional phase with Todd Haley now calling the shots on offense, but I trust his system. Pittsburgh does not rebuild, they reload. So long as Big Ben is on offense and Troy Polamalu is on defense, the surrounding pieces will work something out well enough to maintain this team’s identity. The reason I cannot give my team the division title this season is mistakes. We are arguably the most mistake prone team in the NFL because our quarterback would rather die than admit defeat. Ben gets himself in way too much trouble by holding onto the ball for too long, eventually getting sacked and possibly injured. This is also accompanied by many fumbles and ill-advised passes that become interceptions. Another cause of these miscues is the pitiful offensive line. If our defense is the Steel Curtain, the high school level offensive line is the Teflon Curtain. Roethlisberger can outplay Joe Flacco any day and I may even argue that our defense is still superior to Baltimore’s as well, but the unforgivable mistakes will eventually unravel and dismantle my favorite team.

1. Baltimore: In contrast to my last point about Pittsburgh, this Ravens team never seems to make any mistakes. They can be beat by a team that simply has more positives, but Baltimore commits next to zero negatives, which is a huge advantage. While they may not have as many strengths as their rivals, three things keep the Ravens from losing games. First of all, I may look down on Flacco’s ability as a quarterback but he does know how to not screw up. He traditionally does his job well enough for their others pieces to win him the game. The second reason, Ray Rice, is by far the division’s best playmaker. He can carry the Ravens’ offense, hold onto the ball, and consistently make things happen for them so their underwhelming passing game has plenty of leniency. The third factor that brings home this victory is their outstanding offensive line, which is among the league’s best. They prevent the pressure that causes offensive mistakes. While I do have faith in Roethlisberger, everything seems to be working against him and he may or may not survive any given game. Baltimore, however, plays mistake free football and can make enough plays to let a strong defensive effort win games for them. Even without the elite pass rush from Suggs, Lewis and Reed will keep that Ravens defense together and strong enough to win this powerful but limping division.

It seems odd to have no change in the order of last season’s AFC North standings after an offseason in which this division saw so much change. Despite the many moving pieces, I do not feel that any one team made significant enough strides to overtake another. The most likely leap frog would be Cinci taking the runner up spot away from Pittsburgh, but I am not buying Andy Dalton as much as most people are after his promising rookie year. What we may see is a similar order within the AFC North but the division as a whole will not stack up so well against AFC teams with rising stock like the Texans or Broncos. Because the North is traditionally the AFC’s best division, losing ground may only level the playing field. Teams in other divisions will work hard to limit them to only one playoff team this season. While I still believe two will make it, the Steelers and Ravens have a lot to worry about.

The NFL Eightfold Path: NFC North

Round three of our NFL Eightfold path includes, in my opinion, the league’s strongest division. ESPN the Magazine’s latest issue predicted a perfect 19-0 championship season for the Super Bowl favorite Green Bay Packers. Whether or not this is even close to true, having a team with the NFL’s highest projections does bring a huge advantage to the NFC North when it comes to comparing football’s divisions. In addition to the heaviest of heavy hitters, each remaining team has plenty of reasons to be better than last season. The NFC North is the only division that produced multiple playoff teams last year and still has the opportunity to see each of its four teams improve this season (that includes the 15-1 Packers). It is a strong enough group to produce three playoff teams, but the NFC as a whole is just too good to let that happen. It is likely that Detroit and Chicago will fight for the last playoff spot if neither manages to overthrow Green Bay. If so, take a mental note of the week 17 matchup between the Lions and Bears because that may be the regular season’s most significant game in terms of the NFL playoff bubble. Also, for you fantasy players with a week 17 championship, I am sure that Megatron, Stafford, Marshall, Forte, and others involved in such a game want their team in the playoffs.

4. Vikings: Minnesota’s line between mediocre and terrible will be defined by Adrian Peterson’s health. Unfortunately, this variable means more to fantasy football than the NFL. With or without the league’s most talented runner, the Vikings do not have enough to compete with their three division rivals. In order to even capture third place here, Peterson would have to return to full health and Christian Ponder would have to significantly improve from last season with a sub-par receiving core. Defensively, even an improvement would not be enough to baby their young QB. Typically, first or second year starting quarterbacks need an elite defense to flourish, or at least one that comes close. Think of Roethlisberger, Sanchez, Flacco, or how the Bengals were close enough to elite to help out Dalton. Cam Newton is a freak, so this did not apply. Ponder, on the other hand, needs many peripheral aspects of this team to go very well, which is not likely. Jarred Allen can only do so much, even leading the league in sacks does not seem to be enough. Outside of a potentially miraculous recovery from Peterson, which is not guaranteed, nothing provides much of a silver lining for the Vikings. Of course, being better than last season’s 3-13 finish is not a huge task. An improvement does not mean a playoff berth and something as small as staying competitive or spoiling a rival’s season may be all they need to call 2012-13 some form of success. Winning, for example, six games instead of three should be entirely possible, but these next three teams won’t make it easy. Minnesota will have to pile up wins outside of division rivalries if they want to avoid another three win season.

3. Lions: The space between Detroit and Chicago is microscopic, but a few factors swing the decision in favor of the windy city. First of all, the Lions and Raiders have a monopoly in the discipline department, or lack thereof. They led the league in penalties last season together, and the Lions took their violating talents off the field to lead the league in arrests in this off-season. A team trying to win this division cannot afford those mental mistakes. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson have evolved into the league’s best quarterback-receiver combination, narrowly edging out Brady and Welker in my book. A questionable running game, however, makes their offense somewhat one dimensional. Jahvid Best is a valuable weapon who was great when he played last season, but concussions continue to plague his injury ridden career. As a pure cannon, Stafford’s arm is the NFL’s best. With everything else factored in, he is still in the top five at his position. This offense will be great with or without a running game, but their defense keeps them from reaching an elite status as a complete team. Suh and company can rush the passer, but Detroit’s pass coverage and tackling is atrocious. The only chance Detroit has of being a championship defense is if opposing quarterbacks never have a chance to throw the ball, which is unlikely. Suh’s defensive leadership takes a hit because of his immaturity. As a Steelers fan, it would be hypocritical to pretend I do not love huge hits and violent defensive playmakers. However, liking my team taught me the difference between violent and dirty. I hate most roughing the passer calls and side with the pass rushers who more or less have no legal way to go about their business. However, when you go so far as to intentionally step on people, you have crossed the line. Suh’s extracurricular activities take away from his potential and limit his focus. If he fine tunes his style of play, he can lead the way towards better team defense. The Lions’ ceiling is sky high, but most of their team is well behind Stafford and Megatron in the race to excellence.

2. Bears: The Chicago Bears will have something this season that revolutionizes an awful tradition of bad receivers. Brandon Marshall goes from good to fantastic when teamed up with Jay Cutler, who develops tunnel vision as soon as Marshall enters the game. Usually, this is a bad thing for quarterbacks, but this team could use one dominant guy to inhale nearly every target. The Bears have had seven 1,000 yard seasons from receivers since 1970. If the history between these two players is indicative of their future as a couple, Marshall will have more targets than any other receiver in the NFL. His biggest competition will be Welker, who now loses many of his passes to Gronkowski. Calvin Johnson will be up there, but Stafford likes to get other receivers involved despite the obvious talent gap. Guys like Titus Young and Brandon Pettigrew will see plenty of action for Detroit as well. If Marshall’s drops remain a problem, he may still lead the league in receptions. The reason I continue to emphasize the importance of this pair is because while Stafford and Johnson are better as pure players, do not be surprised if the production of this Chicago duo is not far behind. Their chemistry in Denver should continue this season, which is enough to match the efforts of any other aerial connection. What then elevates Chicago over Detroit is both their running game and defense. Matt Forte is one of the NFL’s best and most versatile running backs. His injury kept him from being among the league leaders in yards from scrimmage, but a full recovery should pave the way for a big year. Michael Bush was a great backup who inherited a starting role after McFadden’s injury in Oakland. He has proven that he is a more than capable runner who will likely take most of Chicago’s goal line carries and can cash in on most of them. Defensively, Urlacher’s knee procedure is a concern, but the team and Urlacher continue to insist that the injury is a minor one. All in all, Chicago is a more complete team than Detroit and has the best chance to take down the kings of this division.

1. Packers: I wanted to go bold and pick Chicago to win this division. After all, they manage to give Green Bay great games even when they are not as good a team. A fully loaded Bears could possibly overtake the Packers. However, I remembered a mistake I made during this year’s March Madness. I overthought a way to take down Kentucky and quickly realized that overthinking for the sake of going bold is not healthy. In this case, let’s not overthink it. The Green Bay Packers mocked the regular season in 2011-12 and had to be taken out by the team that absolutely no one should want to face in the playoffs by now. The main reason I feel the Packers will hold off these two huge threats is their defense. Last season, they gave up over 22 points per game and were the league’s 19^th ranked defense in points allowed. In yards allowed, they were 32^nd (dead last). The Packers actually presented, statistically, the worst pass defense in history last season. My recurring theme here is that the Packers were terrible on defense last year. However, a similar defensive roster had average ranks over the previous two seasons of 4.5^th in points allowed and 3.5^th in yards allowed. If you judge this Packers’ defense by its entire body of work, it is actually an elite defense. I believe that Clay Matthews and company became complacent and dependent on the MVP performance they were receiving from Aaron Rodgers and his high flying offense. Facing Drew Brees’ Saints in the season opener was the worst thing that could have happened to them because it made Green Bay too used to playing in shootouts. The results of their games did not discourage this either, so they never really focused on defense and eventually paid for it. A spoiled defensive unit lost their fire and suffered an uncharacteristically pathetic season. This time, however, there is nothing to rest their laurels on. Saddled with the “worst pass defense ever” title, I fully expect this group to rebound and at least come close to the effectiveness of the Green Bay offense, which is a scary thought for opponents.

The NFC North is outrageously high powered and has more dynamic playmakers than any other division. Their defenses all have a few issues to fight off but, as a whole, I do believe it is the best division in football. The NFC East is in that conversation as well, but we will get to them much later. After all, the hometown heroes and world champions deserve the closing act. Our next destination on this NFL Eightfold Path leaves me with more frustrating confusion than football enlightenment. My head takes on my heart in a heated self-debate and I have no idea how that will end up. These teams once made up a division that could compete among the NFL’s best, but each may be taking a huge step backwards.

The NFL Eightfold Path: AFC West

Our second stop on the NFL Eightfold Path is in the west as well, but this time we will discuss the AFC’s Wild West. What I love about this division is that, in my opinion, it is the only NFL foursome in which any of the teams can capture the division title. Injuries seem to be a bigger factor in this division that any other, and may determine the fate of all teams involved. Peyton Manning’s questionable health and ability to bounce back will be the story in Denver. In San Diego, the loss of Ryan Matthews could cost a team that is already known for slow starts. Darren McFadden was among the elite playmakers last season prior to an injury that crippled his season, which will be an ongoing concern in Oakland. Lastly, Kansas City more or less lost their entire team to injuries. We may not know what to expect from any of these teams, but I can at least take a stab at where they will finish in a division that can really go either way. There is immense talent and potential in the AFC West, but anything resembling last season would be a huge letdown.

4. Chargers: Speaking of high talent and disappointing results, the Chargers have been the NFL’s biggest disappointment when it comes to the ability/production ratio throughout the past decade. There were zero Super Bowl appearances for a team that consistently matched the Patriots and Colts blow for blow on their depth charts. Predicting that the perennially dominant team in this division is actually the worst of the four feels strange, but there is plenty of reason to believe it. Phillip Rivers is following arguably his worst season as a professional, especially considering where he should have been at that point in his career. As if it had not ended already, any debate that the Giants should have gone with him instead of Eli back in 2004 was over after last season. This year, the Chargers enter the regular season without their longtime best receiver, Vincent Jackson, who has moved on to Tampa Bay. In addition to this loss, Ryan Matthews should miss approximately six more weeks with his broken clavicle. This leaves Rivers with no choice but to pull a Peyton and make something out of a nothing offense, something I am not convinced he can do after his last campaign. Their defense, for lack of a better description, is terrible. With a crippled, shaky offense and a defense that cannot keep the flood gates shut, I believe San Diego will be almost irrelevant in this division for the first time in a long time.

3. Raiders: Another year, another head coach. It seemed like Hugh Jackson had a good thing going in Oakland last season, but management did not agree. The Raiders definitely have a potent offense that carries more potential than any other in this division (that does include Peyton’s Broncos). If everything went well for the Raiders, they would win this division. The only problem is, there is little to no chance that every coin-toss issue will end in a favorable outcome for the Black Hole. Carson Palmer was once elite but may not have much left in the tank. Their receivers are all dynamic, but have not shown enough consistency to be reliable enough for Palmer to flourish in this system. McFadden is a guaranteed home run but if he runs into any injury trouble, the wheels on the Raider machine immediately fall off and every teammate would suffer in his absence. The departure of Michael Bush takes away the security blanket of a second great runner as an insurance plan. I think their pieces are enough to surpass the dysfunctional Chargers, but are not reliable enough to match the efforts of our next two teams.

2. Broncos: These last two were really a tossup for me and I think that despite the AFC West disappointment from last season, we will see two playoff teams from this division. The Broncos’ acquisition of Peyton Manning made the sky the limit for this team. While his condition does not guarantee them anything, there is still no game he cannot win. If Rivers has another bad season, Peyton is by far the best quarterback in this division. They have a strong defense that had to put up with the leading three-and-out QB of last season, Tim Tebow. This season, they will have someone who makes big throws on third downs to extend drives and give them some rest for once. With the powerful pass rushing outside linebackers Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller, Denver can terrorize opposing quarterbacks who try to outgun Manning. Also, Champ Bailey is still in the NFL and is somehow an elite corner at age 34. Offensively, their weapons are still pretty underwhelming to me, but Peyton has always been able to negate mediocrity from his wide receivers. There are not many things that make me believe Manning and company will not win this division, but the team’s age is concerning enough for me to doubt that they will be in one piece from weeks one to seventeen.

1. Chiefs: Any team led by Matt Cassel is a longshot to win a competitive division. This is the only division in which I think the worst quarterback’s team will come out on top. Just two seasons ago, a similar Chiefs team did win this division with superb athleticism and young guns at nearly every position. I expect Jamal Charles and Peyton Hillis to both rebound from last season, which would immediately create the best thunder and lightning running back combination in the NFL. Bowe and Baldwin are two huge receivers who have the potential to dominate the red zone and should make Cassel’s job a lot easier. Defensively, they have a similar situation to the description I gave of the Rams defense in my NFC West preview. The Chiefs have one outstanding player on each level of defense, but have a better defensive supporting cast than Saint Louis to back their elite guys up. Tamba Hali’s pass rash off the line (after his brief suspension), along with Derrick Johnson’s play at linebacker and Eric Berry’s everything at safety, may blow opposing offenses away. My best and briefest reason for the Cheifs’ success is simply too many weapons on both sides of the ball. I am going against San Diego’s team experience in this division and Peyton Manning’s experience as a player for a bunch of players who I just do not think other players can catch up to. Because there is no sure thing in our previous three teams, my vote goes in favor of pure explosiveness.

The AFC West may be a better division than our last stop in its NFC counterpart, but there are even more question marks here. Any AFC West team can emerge above the others for one reason or another, a trait that is untrue anywhere else in the NFL. There are so many red flags on each team, mostly because of injuries, that each team does not have to lie to their players in the week one pregame when head coaches gather their players to say that they really can make the playoffs. From that point, as we know, anything can happen. This weekend, we will follow our path of NFL enlightenment and head up north to visit what I may call the best division in the NFL.