The AFC South
will be nominated for the honor of the NFL’s worst division. The Colts carried
the struggling group for years with occasional appearances from the Jaguars or
Titans. Now, however, the shadow cast by Peyton Manning over the remaining
three teams is gone, leaving room for a new perennial division champion. Last
season, the traditionally terrible Texans answered this call and became the AFC’s
best team before eventually being brought down hard by multiple injuries. In
2012-13, we get to find out whether or not their success is temporary. In a
foursome that will almost certainly be held to one playoff team, winning the
division becomes even more crucial. I took a week off to settle back at school,
but now it is time to rapid fire these last few divisions before Wednesday
night kickoff in MetLife.
4. Colts:
Andrew Luck’s potential is almost enough to sneak Indy up to third place in my
projections, but there was a lot more missing from this team than Peyton
Manning last season. The Colts used to get away with an underwhelming running
game or defense because one of history’s greatest players would baby them to
victory. Luck will be a serviceable replacement, but he will need more help
than Peyton ever required to push this mediocre team into playoff contention. I
do believe that the Colts were never the NFL’s worst team and simply suffered
from the shock value of Manning’s injury, especially when they started the
season expecting a return at some point. This season should be better, but
their clear intentions are to slowly rebuild behind the slow and steady
development of the pieces they currently have in place. Donald Brown is a
decent enough weapon to support Luck and Reggie Wayne’s career is not quite
over yet, so there is reason to believe that the Colts do not have reservations
for last place this season. While I am not sold enough to rank them above any
of the next three teams, Luck is capable of as many as seven wins this season.
3. Jaguars:
With Maurice Jones-Drew leading the NFL in rushing last season, the Jags still
finished the season with the NFL’s worst offense. This off-season’s holdout
stressed the importance of an improvement from sophomore quarterback Blaine
Gabbert. To me, Gabbert was the NFL’s worst starting QB last season. He has
actually looked good throughout the preseason, but I try not to overreact to
exhibition play. I am sure he will not be as bad, but a huge problem for
Jacksonville will be if Mojo is not as good. Historically, players who hold out
over contract disputes are less durable and, ultimately, less productive. If
Jones-Drew struggles or is anything less than healthy and spectacular, Gabbert
and company may be in for a long season. Expect a more balanced attack from the
Jags, but not a much more effective one. The Jaguars quietly have a strong
defense and Justin Blackmon appears to have potential as a playmaking receiver,
so they have enough to finish ahead of a team that is going through a compete
rebuilding phase. However, the playoffs are most likely out of the question
here as well.
2. Titans: In
contrast to the holdout point made about Mojo, Tennessee’s Chris Johnson seems
to be set up for a huge season. Last year, he suffered career lows in most
statistical categories, which was likely a consequence of not showing up at
training camp and demanding a bigger contract. This season, we can expect a
more typical CJ2K effort, especially with a rookie-led offense that will rely
on Johnson’s production. I would not consider the Titans among the legitimate
playoff contenders despite the impressive push they made towards the end of
last season. Jake Locker’s decision making is still questionable and Kenny
Britt’s health is not trustworthy enough to assume Tennessee will have weapons
outside of Chris Johnson. Defensively, they are a far cry from the Titans that
had Albert Haynesworth in his prime. That team used to dominate the line of
scrimmage and dictate the pace of the game. Now, they lack playmakers and
Locker may find himself in a few uncomfortable shootouts that will make him
more vulnerable to mistakes. Once this Tennessee team falls behind and loses
the ability to consistently run the ball, they will struggle to keep up with
better teams.
1. Texans: I
believe Houston will be the only team in the AFC South to win more than eight
games. They have become an elite team that, like New England, benefits from
having six very winnable games from division rivalries. With arguably the best
all-around running back in football, Arian Foster, the impressive connection
between Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson is almost overlooked now. If they can
stay healthy, the Texans are in a great position to make a Super Bowl run. They
may have lost Mario Williams this off-season to Buffalo, but they won games
last season without him and other key players who will be returning. JJ Watt
serves as their new defensive anchor and is more than capable of creating similar
chaos for opposing quarterbacks. Houston has no real weakness; they just have
to become more exceptional in order to improve after last season’s strong
effort against a lot of adversity. Their passing game has to be at least close
to the threat of their running game, which would make them nearly unstoppable.
The Texans should run away with this division, the only question is whether or
not they have enough to win it all.
The AFC
South will likely be dominated by one team yet again, but this time Peyton’s
Colts have handed the keys over to Matt Schaub’s Texans. Houston needs to take
advantage of this division’s weakened state and seize the opportunity they have
been given. The only remaining mystery is whether the Titans or another likely
contender have what it takes to push another team out of the playoff picture.
Tomorrow, we will look at what is traditionally the NFL’s most unpredictable
division. This will include an exiled coach, some massive underachievers and an
attempt to live up to a rookie season for the ages.
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