If I had to
bet everything I own on one division winner, it would be the New England
Patriots. There is no reason to believe that the Patriots will face much
competition in another predictable regular season ending in home field
advantage and eventual playoff disappointment. The only question for them is
whether or not they can break from that formula and revert to the champions of
Brady’s earlier years. What lies behind them is interesting but somewhat
anticlimactic as well. The three teams can end up in any order, but at the same
time I do not expect any of them to make the playoffs. There is reason to
believe in each team following New England, but I like Denver and Pittsburgh as
more likely wildcards. It seems as if the only way to the playoffs is to follow
the blueprints made by the Dolphins the year the wildcat was brought to the
NFL. Someone has to take a few risks and hope for a few lucky breaks in return.
4. Dolphins:
I always look more favorably towards the team that receives HBO’s Hard Knocks
because, as a fan, I feel involved in their training camp experience. The
insider’s look at what goes on behind closed doors can make any team more
appealing to viewers. Sadly, Miami just does not have enough going on to
convince me that they can consistently put up points or stop other teams from
doing just that. They have individual playmakers, such as the always powerful
Cameron Wake or the emergence of Reggie Bush, who has the ability to carry this
offense if he stays healthy. Between Ryan Tannehill and a disappointing
receiving core, the Dolphins’ offense will not be able to get off the ground.
While Reggie has come a long way, he still is not a workhorse. In an easy
division, the Dolphins can squeak out a few wins to stay out of the NFL
basement, but it is going to be a tough season in Miami.
3. Bills: Most
people feel the Bills will be the runner up in this division and may be the
only team that can give New England a fight. I understand their reasoning
because outside of the Patriots, the Bills actually have the division’s best
quarterback, running back, and receiver all on the same offense. With the
addition of elite pass rusher Mario Williams, the Buffalo defense should be a
force to be reckoned with as well. All signs lead to a strong showing from the
Bills except one. It is a pretty underwhelming reason, but a hunch tells me to
not overreact to the Buffalo Bills looking pretty good. Every season, the Bills
seem to look great and start the season with a 4-0 record or something of that
nature. Then, they fade dramatically and are ultimately a six win team. This
season, anything less than 4-0 should mean disaster for a team that is known to
lose momentum as the season goes on. The Bills are finally competitive on
paper, but I still cannot associate this organization with a winning record. After
all, the Ryan Fitzpatrick and Stevie Johnson connection has been there for
years. Despite the great signing of Williams, the team as a whole is not very
different at all. Sure, if the Jets score zero touchdowns this year then
Buffalo will have a clear path at second place. However, I still say the Bills
end up in the third spot.
2. Jets: The
Jets may have the worst offense in football and their team as a whole is a
walking circus. We get it, and there is no degree of Jets criticism that we
have not already heard. What we have not heard as often is what I would like to
focus on first, which is the resurgence of Rex Ryan’s defense. The lack of a
pass rush has hurt the Jets defense as a whole and has eased them out of the
elite category. However, I think role players such as Aaron Maybin and first
round draft pick Quentin Coples will generate enough pressure to let the league’s
best secondary lock down opposing receivers. Bart Scott and David Harris are
the best middle linebacker combination outside of San Francisco. They and a
solid defensive line can stuff the run while the young edge rushers make names
for themselves. I think the Jets defense is set to make a return to what we saw
a couple of years ago when Rex first arrived. Sanchez and the offense are
obviously a train wreck, which is why the Jets still cannot catch the Patriots
this season, but their defense is better than either Buffalo unit. If the
offense can limit their turnovers and live with being mediocre, they will
accidentally score enough points for that defense to win games.
1. Patriots:
Even with a historically bad defense, there is nothing stopping the Patriots
from casually winning another fourteen games this season. Opposing teams simply
cannot keep up with their machine of an offense and repeatedly turn the ball
over when they try doing so. I am most likely alone on this one, but I believe
Tom Brady has gotten worse over the years. During his championship runs, he
would spread the ball out and made the New England offense as unpredictable as
it was effective. Now, Brady has severe tunnel vision for two targets with Welker
and Gronkowski, especially in clutch situations. He can easily fix this, but
the dependence on these two pass catchers makes the Patriots not easy to stop,
but at least easy to figure out. This allowed the creation of a formula that
could actually defeat them, but only the Giants seem to have it figured out and
executed it. The first requirement is that you have a good pass rush without
blitzing. The pressure created by the basic four man rush creates a need for a
quick release from Brady, but he has no problem with this. After all, his
options are a wide receiver that runs five yard routes and a tight end that
runs ten yard routes. The Pats have lacked any threat beyond these distances,
so the Giants stack most of their coverage in the five to ten yard range,
creating a smokescreen of G-Men for Brady to throw into. Only one or two guys
stay deep just in case, which is enough of a safety net to prevent a big play
from a small play team. While the Pats seem intricate, they only operate within
the hash marks of a five to ten yard depth, which is a grand approximate total
of 60 yards. Each of the Giants in this area only have about 15 yards of
surface area to cover, which is not exactly challenging to a professional
linebacker or safety. This is very limiting to New England’s offense, even for
someone with Brady’s accuracy. When the Giants give Brady so little time to
throw into such a small and crowded window, you get the biggest upsets in NFL
history. Beating the Pats defense is then easy. Just show up.
I know I went
more into the Patriots’ scheme than their actual chances this season, but that
is because their path is obvious. They will win the AFC East and we will
measure their success by their fate in the playoffs. The addition of Brandon
Lloyd may help defeat the formula, but even with him there Brady has to make
the conscious effort to get him involved. The only twist ending would be if a
team without Eli Manning 1. figures this winning formula out and 2. can actually
do it. The AFC East is a mystery beyond this point, but I have faith in the
Jets’ ability to be defined by their strengths instead of their weaknesses. It
has become popular to mock them, probably because the combined efforts of
Sanchez and Tebow are pretty funny. But I believe the defensive one trick pony
will follow its offensive counterpart in these standings. The Bills are not
quite there yet as whole, and I fear another potentially strong start will go
to waste in upstate New York. As a whole, this division is one Patriots away
from being among the lowest of the low. I am happy to say that for our final
stop on my NFL Eightfold Path seeks to reclaim its title as the NFL’s best division.
They took a hit in the 2011 regular season but eventually emerged from a thick
veil of mediocrity with a Super Bowl champion. For our final stop, we will pay
the defending champion Giants a visit and, hopefully, achieve football
enlightenment.
No comments:
Post a Comment