2012-13 NFL Playoffs

   

         Laziness has left us with a lot to talk about. My last NFL update came after week 4 as September wrapped up, and this season has developed a personality of its own since then. Despite the layoff, there is no better time to check in than just before the playoffs, where all of 2012’s great stories collide to crown our next champion. And, with no Giants in the mix, just about anyone left has a chance to make a miracle run of their own. From what I see, the surviving teams can be divided into four basic categories. First, we have the usual suspects led by familiar faces that keep their teams relevant on a yearly basis. The Patriots and Packers, for example, surround their MVP candidate quarterbacks with teams that are good enough to not screw everything up. This has its advantages, such as having the most important piece on the field that can single handedly win any game. However, they have been incredibly one dimensional in those key situations, which championship defenses will eventually shut down. These two are each other’s cross conference counterparts with a few exceptions, but we can look into that later.

            The second type between our remaining teams is the well balanced team with something to prove. In this category, the Texans and Falcons are grouped together ahead of the Bengals. Both of these teams deserve a championship because in my opinion, they are the best pure teams in football. Instead of being driven by one dominant factor, these two have next to no weaknesses. In Atlanta, you have the best wide receiver combination in the league by far. In Houston, an elite running game and defense cloud our memories and keep them from recalling an elite wide receiver who also spoils Matt Schaub. The Bengals quietly lead the league in sacks and run a clean offense through a dominant receiver and consistent running game. What will keep them all from immortality, unfortunately, is the good but not great play from their quarterbacks. I hate to glorify the golden boy position more than the NFL already has, but recent history suggests that you need an elite QB in order to win it all. Since 2003 Super Bowl winning QBs have included the names Brady, Manning, Manning, Roethlisberger, and Rodgers. For some reason, the names Schaub, Ryan and Dalton just do not seem to fit in despite all the talent around them. Houston has the best chances of the three and their matchup against Cincinnati may look a lot like their showdown in last year’s playoffs. While the Bengals have improved greatly, Matt Schaub may bring a bit more to the table than TJ Yates, who was enough to beat Cinci last time.

            Type number three includes tales of redemption. Legendary players have returned from serious injuries to lead their teams in their time of need. Peyton Manning has taken Tim Tebow’s Cinderella sideshow and turned them into a dominant AFC favorite. They have as good a quarterback as there is in New England, an infinitely better defense, and home field advantage in Mile High throughout the playoffs. Anything other than a championship would have to end in an upset, because this team should be expected to win it all. With some help from a relatively easy schedule, they look nearly unbeatable. The second team in this group may transition us from the post-season’s biggest favorite to its biggest underdog. Adrian Peterson’s recovery and return is an unprecedented accomplishment in sports history. Watching D Rose’s NBA return, or lack thereof, has reminded me what an ACL tear is supposed to do to someone. AP and his cyborg legs have torn NFL defenses to pieces. He may end up with 500 or 600 yards against the Packers alone this season after the wildcard round. While his efforts may not prove to be enough, because I do not like this team’s chances, Peterson’s 2012-13 should go down as the greatest running back season of all time. Record or no record, his season was something else. The Ravens fill out this section with the return of Ray Lewis, their emotional and physical leader who will be retiring after Andrew Luck breaks hearts in Baltimore. Lewis’ comeback may inspire John Harbaugh’s otherwise apathetic bunch who have treated the second half of this regular season as a walkthrough and if so, my prediction will be very wrong.

            The fourth and final playoff team category may be the most interesting, because few things are more enticing than the exciting and unpredictable play of rookie quarterbacks. Andrew Luck has given the Colts a 180 spin after their 180 spin in the opposite direction last season. Playing without Peyton pulled the rug out from under them, but allowed Indy to give the word rebuilding a whole new meaning. Never has there been such a win-win situation when you look at the questionable decision to cut Peyton Manning and gamble on the upcoming rookie class. Luck and Chuck Strong have this team running on something else. Their sense of urgency is greater than every other team in the playoffs and when they do eventually lose, it will simply be because they were not an elite team. However, they can easily take out any team that is not entirely playoff-ready, which is why I see them winning in Baltimore but falling to Denver in what would be an epic matchup. Robert Griffin III is either a new breed of quarterback that can change this league forever alongside Cam Newton or the second coming of Michael Vick who will injure himself enough to ruin a promising career. Either way, he is a lot of fun right now and will cause a healthy amount of problems for Russell Wilson and a Seattle team that is so ready to make a playoff run but may suffer a terrible matchup. The Seahawks’ defensive linemen are outstanding and very aggressive, which plays right into the hands of RG3’s read offense that catches people over-pursuing and out of position. Seattle is also a very different team away from home, so playing in the nation’s capital makes my decision in what I believe is this first round’s tightest matchup. If there is one Cinderella team to believe in for this post-season, it should be the winner of this game. I see either taking out the playoff tested and playoff failure Atlanta in the divisional round for a shocking NFC Championship appearance against the Packers. The 49ers fit here as well even though Colin Kaepernick is not technically a rookie. He is equally inexperienced and, while I would start him over Alex Smith as well, does not measure up to the abilities of the previous three rookies. An elite defense does go a long way, but I cannot see him outgunning Aaron Rodgers in a playoff game despite all the help he receives from the other side of the ball and a nearly impenetrable offensive line. Then again, Alex Smith beating Drew Brees a year ago wasn’t my first guess either.

            For the big picture, I like Denver beating New England at Mile High to win the limping AFC. Location made half of that decision and defense made the other. Peyton will have way too much time to throw and Brady, despite undoing the inferior Texans for a second time in as many months, will eventually be taken down by Von Miller at a crucial time. In the NFC, I will continue to rely on something that may never happen. I liked the Packers to win it all in the pre-season because I anticipated the return of their defense. This season, that never really happened. Instead, we saw more of the same as Rodgers carried the team to a strong season. Without much evidence, I expect their defense to rise to the occasion for their last few games. In doing so, I believe they will pummel Christian Ponder, hold Kaepernick/Griffin down enough to let Rodgers take them to the Super Bowl. However, in a championship matchup against Peyton Manning, playing good enough defense just isn’t good enough. If we call the Manning-Rodgers matchup even, nearly everything else leans in Denver’s favor. The one thing I have not yet mentioned is the Packers’ horrendous offensive line. They may not even hold up well enough to make the Super Bowl, let alone win it. Denver has both a complete team and an elite quarterback. They are the only team that possesses both of these essential keys to Super Bowl victory. Despite playing in the NFL's minor league system, also known as the AFC, Denver has what it takes to beat anyone right now. If anyone else here has a photographic memory, you may remember the Saints beating the Ravens in my Super Bowl that never happened last season. Like most other predictions in sports history, no one really knows. I enjoy the misses every bit as much as the hits, such as my Chiefs going from AFC West champions in my head to the number one overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft on paper. With my Steelers opting out of this season’s playoffs, I already have my General Manager hat on for the next few months and the draft, which is always one of my favorite stages of the NFL season. Despite not having a horse in the race, a position many New Yorkers are in, these playoffs have more than enough to offer as the real most wonderful time of the year is underway.