Skirts and Skins

The NFL, since its creation, has been a modern day incarnation of ancient Roman gladiators and the legendary Coliseum. In as protective a society as ours, it still amazes me that the NFL is even allowed. Life threatening hits are met with thunderous applause. Men performing at superhuman levels tear each other apart for a league that endorses these collisions for our own amusement. In many ways, the danger is what excites us as fans who want to see on a field what we cannot see in our everyday lives. Perhaps danger is the wrong word, but the action that we all love is undeniably accompanied by considerable danger every step of the way. For this reason, danger is a necessary evil present in the fantasy world of professional football, where each great play would be a misdemeanor in real life.

However, America’s new favorite pastime is on its way to being no more than a game of past times. Just as Emperor Constantine put a slow and steady end to the gladiator games, Emperor Goodell seeks to enforce his own end of an era. Since the advent of his regime, Commissioner Roger Goodell has turned rushing the passer into roughing the passer and necessary toughness into unnecessary roughness. He has caused the extinction of celebrations and big hits, two of the more fan friendly elements of the game. In a league that fines Frank Gore $10,500 for wearing socks too low, the last thing we need is another reminder that, for the NFL, fun is a forgotten concept.

The latest and most hilarious rule will apparently penalize ball carriers for leading with their heads into defenders. This not only maintains, but elevates the NFL’s ongoing crusade against players leading with their heads. Defenders have already been penalized for doing this, so the league is now theoretically free of all forms of leading with one’s helmet. The NFL expects that the long overdue decision to get rid of the “tuck rule” will make up for their latest atrocity, but this is not the case. Negating the tuck rule was a moral obligation, not a favor to the fans.  The thought process behind this new rule is noble enough, as is the case with many other rules. After all, removing head injuries from the game would be fantastic. However, the practical application of it is nothing short of ridiculous.

At this point, I would like to make an unusual request for anyone reading this. I would like you to walk into the nearest wall, preferably while alone so no one thinks you require medical attention. For the sake of practicality, you can just imagine doing so. Now, imagine walking into that wall in such a way that your head is not the first part of you to make contact. For the full NFL experience, picture the same scenario and rules, only this time you are running at full speed. As if the thought of you running into a wall was not funny enough, doing so with that upright, almost leaning back form has to be pretty amusing. That is how NFL running backs are now expected to run into defenders. That is also how NFL defenders are expected to tackle. I cannot do anything but laugh every time I envision a collision between two people running in the way I have just described. Natural momentum causes people to lead with their heads while running, but the NFL seems determined to change that.

Contrary to how it may seem, the NFL does not actually create these rules for the sole purpose of ruining the game. Lawsuits and the negative press created by all we find out about retired players and head trauma have essentially backed the league into a corner and forced their hand on certain issues. The Junior Seau suicide, which was most likely caused by degenerative brain disease as a result of cumulative concussions suffered while playing in the NFL, is a perfect example of this. There is no debating the fact that the NFL has a responsibility to protect its players and, therefore, its own reputation. While changing the nature of the game entirely is the easy way to improve player safety, is cannot be the right way. I compare the league’s angle to the old joke where a patient tells a doctor “my leg hurts when I do this” and the doctor says “well then don’t do that.” Avoidance is not a real solution, and taking hitting out of football is not a win for player safety.

Alternatives for a better plan will not be easy to come across. If this was the case, those solutions would be in place already. However, one small step that would be a giant leap for the NFL would be to take their strict stance on sock length and apply it to how players wear their helmets. One of the few similarities between high school football and the NFL is that a player in either league will wear a helmet, so I can actually speak from experience here. NFL helmets should almost never come off during a play. For lack of a better explanation, they are just too tight to be removed unless you make the conscious effort to take one off. Even then, you may feel like your ears are being ripped off. NFL players must not be doing something correctly because I always see at least three helmets rolling around on the field per game. This does not refer to a battle between linemen in which a stray bear paw rips a helmet off someone’s head. This is much more understandable. I am referring to when a star wide receiver, who is clearly bigger than the team, waltzes up to the line of scrimmage with his chinstrap flapping in the breeze without a care in the world. His helmet is rattling around on his head and his brain is rattling around inside it.

The other, more tangible change would be more advanced helmets that reduce the risk of concussions. While equipment that makes you immune to head injuries may very well be impossible, time and technological advances will inevitably bring improvements in player safety. The NFL needs to run tests to rate the safety of different helmets, which they have already done to a certain extent, and mandate the use of the safest possible equipment. Another revision to the league’s rules should be a clear distinction between a legal and illegal way to lead with one’s head. As we proved earlier, it is impossible to sprint without leaning forward, so there has to be a more distinguishable line between how players can and cannot do so. The key to this is making sure that players keep their heads up and bury their facemasks into opponents, as opposed to ramming the top of their heads into them. This is the most reasonable compromise between an effort to keep players safe and a certain level of violence that football simply requires.

As a Pittsburgh Steelers fan, I have taken an exceptional level of interest in the NFL’s fight against hitting. My team’s entire franchise is built on hitting harder and more often than your team. This philosophy took a major hit, no pun intended, when flags and fines teamed up to rob linebacker James Harrison of well over $100,000. I refer to these hits as donations because, from what I understand, money taken from player fines go to nonprofit organizations ranging from retired players to cancer foundations. The reason I include my fanhood here is a particular and foreboding incident from a wildcard playoff matchup between my Steelers and the Denver Broncos. The disappointing result of the actual game, which had something to do with bad tackling and a Christian quarterback, allowed me to focus more on the peripheral aspects of the game. For example, the hit from the charitable James Harrison that injured wide receiver Eric Decker caught my attention. Another thing I can say from experience is that I would gladly take a truck to the upper body before an awkward hit to the knees. Take my eyes, just not the knees. Hits of this kind can make a gory highlight reel of devastating injuries. Luckily, Decker was not seriously hurt, but he did miss the remainder of that game. Harrison specifically said that his decision to dive low, a move that could be perceived as a dirty play, was solely motivated by the desire to avoid a personal foul, which would have cost his team dearly. It is a small story in the grand scheme of things, but this incident and others like it could foreshadow a dark age for NFL knees.

Does anyone remember Jacked Up on Monday Night Football? The league likes to pretend as if this never happened, but we used to celebrate vicious hits instead of condemning them. The segment took criticism for its barbaric nature as if half the nation doesn’t follow a sport that features two sets of eleven men trying to kill each other. As much as I love its replacement, C’mon Man, which is filled with delightful NFL bloopers and mishaps, things like Jacked Up define the game of football. Granted, some changes throughout history were needed. No one wants to see defensive linemen ripping quarterbacks down by the facemasks and then poking them in the eye as their friends rip out leg hairs. Maybe future generations will view a safety lighting up a receiver across a middle as an equally barbaric scenario. This thought saddens me, but it is very possible. Football is following a deeply troubling trend, and I fear the day when my grandson and I talk football and I tell him “You know, when I was your age, they used to tackle each other.”

The NFL rule changes to reduce hitting have been a slow and steady poison for a sport that is predicated on at least some degree of violence. If you look ten, twenty, or fifty years into the future, you can only imagine where these limitations will take the game. We may be looking at a league in which every game looks like the Pro Bowl. At some point, anyone defending NFL hitting has to utter the words “occupational hazard.” It sounds unpleasant, but you simply cannot have football as we know it without this harsh reality. You can fight it with improved equipment and physical protection. You can teach players better form to protect themselves. However, as bad as it sounds, you cannot change the entire game just because someone may get hurt. Under Goodell’s oppression, there may come a day when NFL players buckle up their flags, crowds go wild for an assertive two hand touch, and pick-up games divide themselves into skirts and skins.

2012-13 NFL Playoffs

   

         Laziness has left us with a lot to talk about. My last NFL update came after week 4 as September wrapped up, and this season has developed a personality of its own since then. Despite the layoff, there is no better time to check in than just before the playoffs, where all of 2012’s great stories collide to crown our next champion. And, with no Giants in the mix, just about anyone left has a chance to make a miracle run of their own. From what I see, the surviving teams can be divided into four basic categories. First, we have the usual suspects led by familiar faces that keep their teams relevant on a yearly basis. The Patriots and Packers, for example, surround their MVP candidate quarterbacks with teams that are good enough to not screw everything up. This has its advantages, such as having the most important piece on the field that can single handedly win any game. However, they have been incredibly one dimensional in those key situations, which championship defenses will eventually shut down. These two are each other’s cross conference counterparts with a few exceptions, but we can look into that later.

            The second type between our remaining teams is the well balanced team with something to prove. In this category, the Texans and Falcons are grouped together ahead of the Bengals. Both of these teams deserve a championship because in my opinion, they are the best pure teams in football. Instead of being driven by one dominant factor, these two have next to no weaknesses. In Atlanta, you have the best wide receiver combination in the league by far. In Houston, an elite running game and defense cloud our memories and keep them from recalling an elite wide receiver who also spoils Matt Schaub. The Bengals quietly lead the league in sacks and run a clean offense through a dominant receiver and consistent running game. What will keep them all from immortality, unfortunately, is the good but not great play from their quarterbacks. I hate to glorify the golden boy position more than the NFL already has, but recent history suggests that you need an elite QB in order to win it all. Since 2003 Super Bowl winning QBs have included the names Brady, Manning, Manning, Roethlisberger, and Rodgers. For some reason, the names Schaub, Ryan and Dalton just do not seem to fit in despite all the talent around them. Houston has the best chances of the three and their matchup against Cincinnati may look a lot like their showdown in last year’s playoffs. While the Bengals have improved greatly, Matt Schaub may bring a bit more to the table than TJ Yates, who was enough to beat Cinci last time.

            Type number three includes tales of redemption. Legendary players have returned from serious injuries to lead their teams in their time of need. Peyton Manning has taken Tim Tebow’s Cinderella sideshow and turned them into a dominant AFC favorite. They have as good a quarterback as there is in New England, an infinitely better defense, and home field advantage in Mile High throughout the playoffs. Anything other than a championship would have to end in an upset, because this team should be expected to win it all. With some help from a relatively easy schedule, they look nearly unbeatable. The second team in this group may transition us from the post-season’s biggest favorite to its biggest underdog. Adrian Peterson’s recovery and return is an unprecedented accomplishment in sports history. Watching D Rose’s NBA return, or lack thereof, has reminded me what an ACL tear is supposed to do to someone. AP and his cyborg legs have torn NFL defenses to pieces. He may end up with 500 or 600 yards against the Packers alone this season after the wildcard round. While his efforts may not prove to be enough, because I do not like this team’s chances, Peterson’s 2012-13 should go down as the greatest running back season of all time. Record or no record, his season was something else. The Ravens fill out this section with the return of Ray Lewis, their emotional and physical leader who will be retiring after Andrew Luck breaks hearts in Baltimore. Lewis’ comeback may inspire John Harbaugh’s otherwise apathetic bunch who have treated the second half of this regular season as a walkthrough and if so, my prediction will be very wrong.

            The fourth and final playoff team category may be the most interesting, because few things are more enticing than the exciting and unpredictable play of rookie quarterbacks. Andrew Luck has given the Colts a 180 spin after their 180 spin in the opposite direction last season. Playing without Peyton pulled the rug out from under them, but allowed Indy to give the word rebuilding a whole new meaning. Never has there been such a win-win situation when you look at the questionable decision to cut Peyton Manning and gamble on the upcoming rookie class. Luck and Chuck Strong have this team running on something else. Their sense of urgency is greater than every other team in the playoffs and when they do eventually lose, it will simply be because they were not an elite team. However, they can easily take out any team that is not entirely playoff-ready, which is why I see them winning in Baltimore but falling to Denver in what would be an epic matchup. Robert Griffin III is either a new breed of quarterback that can change this league forever alongside Cam Newton or the second coming of Michael Vick who will injure himself enough to ruin a promising career. Either way, he is a lot of fun right now and will cause a healthy amount of problems for Russell Wilson and a Seattle team that is so ready to make a playoff run but may suffer a terrible matchup. The Seahawks’ defensive linemen are outstanding and very aggressive, which plays right into the hands of RG3’s read offense that catches people over-pursuing and out of position. Seattle is also a very different team away from home, so playing in the nation’s capital makes my decision in what I believe is this first round’s tightest matchup. If there is one Cinderella team to believe in for this post-season, it should be the winner of this game. I see either taking out the playoff tested and playoff failure Atlanta in the divisional round for a shocking NFC Championship appearance against the Packers. The 49ers fit here as well even though Colin Kaepernick is not technically a rookie. He is equally inexperienced and, while I would start him over Alex Smith as well, does not measure up to the abilities of the previous three rookies. An elite defense does go a long way, but I cannot see him outgunning Aaron Rodgers in a playoff game despite all the help he receives from the other side of the ball and a nearly impenetrable offensive line. Then again, Alex Smith beating Drew Brees a year ago wasn’t my first guess either.

            For the big picture, I like Denver beating New England at Mile High to win the limping AFC. Location made half of that decision and defense made the other. Peyton will have way too much time to throw and Brady, despite undoing the inferior Texans for a second time in as many months, will eventually be taken down by Von Miller at a crucial time. In the NFC, I will continue to rely on something that may never happen. I liked the Packers to win it all in the pre-season because I anticipated the return of their defense. This season, that never really happened. Instead, we saw more of the same as Rodgers carried the team to a strong season. Without much evidence, I expect their defense to rise to the occasion for their last few games. In doing so, I believe they will pummel Christian Ponder, hold Kaepernick/Griffin down enough to let Rodgers take them to the Super Bowl. However, in a championship matchup against Peyton Manning, playing good enough defense just isn’t good enough. If we call the Manning-Rodgers matchup even, nearly everything else leans in Denver’s favor. The one thing I have not yet mentioned is the Packers’ horrendous offensive line. They may not even hold up well enough to make the Super Bowl, let alone win it. Denver has both a complete team and an elite quarterback. They are the only team that possesses both of these essential keys to Super Bowl victory. Despite playing in the NFL's minor league system, also known as the AFC, Denver has what it takes to beat anyone right now. If anyone else here has a photographic memory, you may remember the Saints beating the Ravens in my Super Bowl that never happened last season. Like most other predictions in sports history, no one really knows. I enjoy the misses every bit as much as the hits, such as my Chiefs going from AFC West champions in my head to the number one overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft on paper. With my Steelers opting out of this season’s playoffs, I already have my General Manager hat on for the next few months and the draft, which is always one of my favorite stages of the NFL season. Despite not having a horse in the race, a position many New Yorkers are in, these playoffs have more than enough to offer as the real most wonderful time of the year is underway.

MLB Playoffs: The 2012 Hunt for October

With the MLB playoffs starting tonight, the NFL has ensured that the average sports fan does not care. I have always felt that baseball’s schedule suffers from America’s new favorite pastime, and that a 100 game season ending during the summer would be a much better idea. Considering how baseball is so statistics oriented, my idea would never work because most season and career records would become unbreakable with so few games to play. However, I maintain that avoiding the overlap with the NFL would be a great idea for Major League Baseball. Regardless of this conflict, I am very excited for what may be the most unpredictable MLB playoffs in recent memory.

Is there better way for both Yankees and Red Sox fans to celebrate the beginning of the playoffs than the firing of Bobby Valentine? From our perspective, the man who always has so much to say finally has to eat his words and suffer unemployment. From Boston’s point of view, their nightmare is finally over and the team can get back on its feet next season. Valentine’s experience was a disaster from the start. One of his first statements as manager was to undermine Jeter’s miracle flip play against Oakland in 2001. Bobby V clearly tried too hard to make himself a part of the rivalry, as opposed to easing into it as the season progressed. Despite everything that is wrong with him, I place all of the blame for this season on the Red Sox management who brought this guy in. Do you blame a gun for firing, or the shooter? Valentine is less of a man and more of an object that Boston’s decision makers should have had no affiliation with. They enabled a person who simply is a certain way. Bobby Valentine is a child, and we should not blame him for being put in a situation that needed an adult. Much like signing Chad Johnson, teams bring these consequences on themselves. As for teams still playing, the playoff races were among the best in history this season. I am personally against the new rule that installed a one game playoff in each league between two wildcard teams. I do not think it is fair that a baseball team can be eliminated from the playoffs with one loss. However, I cannot deny what this new rule did for the division races. The Yankees developed an entirely new sense of urgency to win the AL East and avoid that one game playoff. Regardless of how I feel about it, the MLB has clearly figured something out with this new format. I still believe that it can be improved though, such as making the wildcard round a best of three series. The Braves are a full six games ahead of the Cardinals, who should not even be in the playoffs, but Atlanta can be eliminated tonight after one game.

I do not think I have ever been so clueless on a given playoff picture. Considering how wrong picks are when things are clear, I can only imagine how this plays out for me. Without overthinking things too much, my gut tells me to look for the Tigers and Giants to meet in the World Series, where the Tigers emerge victorious. They have the Triple Crown winner, enough depth in their lineup around him, and arguably the best ace in baseball on the mound. The Giants have by far the best five man rotation, especially since the Nationals made the horrible decision to shut down Stephen Strasburg. I refuse to pick any team playing in the one game playoffs because there are simply too many variables. The Rangers have been in a tailspin for some time, I still cannot buy into the Orioles as a legitimate championship contender, another magical run for the Cardinals is very unlikely and the Braves just do not seem to have enough to compete with elite teams.

Among teams that will definitely be in the real playoffs, things get much more confusing. I have been selling Nationals stock because I do not like the attitude they developed during the tough Strasburg decisions. Shutting him down for the season is a move for their future, but what position is a baseball team from Washington in to assume they have a future in the playoffs? Once the Phillies get back on their feet, this team will become irrelevant. I do not want them to be rewarded for a decision that I so fundamentally disagree with, so consider that disqualification personal. This leaves the Reds and Giants as my two National League favorites. I believe the winner of that matchup will move on to the World Series. For me, San Francisco has the slight advantage. Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner were fantastic this season, and just imagine if Tim Lincecum returns to the form we are used to. Losing Melky Cabrera is tough, but Buster Posey and company should be enough to consistently manufacture runs. Their Brian Wilson-less bullpen is a major concern, especially when matched up against Cincinnati’s Aroldis Chapman. This comparative weakness may become a problem, but the closer by committee concept was enough to fend of the Los Angeles Dodgers down the home stretch. I have faith in the Giants rotation, which can be the driving force behind a National League championship run.

In the American league, I have already ruled out Baltimore. They have been very impressive and can win any game that stays close in the late innings. However, I think we will look back at the 2012 Orioles and define them as the team that helped the Yankees prepare for the playoffs. They really have been great for us and have restored a lot of my Yankee playoff faith. Without Boston, someone had to keep us honest, and they did a great job at doing so. The Oakland A’s have been quite a story with such huge contributions from inexperienced players, but I think that may catch up to them against teams heading for a championship. I think the Rangers will move on to the second round but their play in the second half of the season leaves me no reason to believe they will take out the remaining American League powerhouses. I want to take the Yankees and the league’s best lineup, but their pitching is too much of a question mark for me. Beyond CC Sabathia, I trust no one completely. Hiroki Kuroda has been great, but he and CC need to be near perfect in order to make this work. Ivan Nova is capable but relies heavily on run support to win, which is far from granted in the playoffs. Andy Pettitte is a playoff warhorse, but is far from last decade’s Andy Pettitte. I like the Yankees a lot, but not enough to alter my Tigers prediction. Everything seems to be lining up for Detroit after a narrow division win and Miguel Cabrera’s baseball immortality. Their record was by far the worst of the American League playoff teams, but Verlander is the only pitcher on any surviving team who I think may win every single one of his playoff starts. Despite the Yankees’ many weapons, the Tigers have the best one two batting punch with Cabrera and Fielder. These three players are enough to make a championship run, and Detroit’s supporting cast is not so bad either.

In my opinion, baseball is the hardest sport to predict in any one game. As these games string together, you have the Cardinals 2011 championship run. Anything can happen in any sport that isn’t the NBA, but the MLB is a different animal when it comes to parody. ESPN’s JA Adande made one of my favorite arguments of all time on today’s Around the Horn. You have lockouts in nearly every major sport over a variety of issues. However, one ongoing issue has been enforcing salary caps to create more parity between teams. Depending on tonight’s results, more than half of the playoff teams may be in the bottom half of the MLB’s pay roll. Leave it to the sport with no salary cap to be the fairest of them all. For anyone who talks about the Yankees buying rings, mull that one over. Or just look at where the Red Sox and Mets went with all their money. Or look at the Dodgers win percentage before and after spending all that money (.543 before, .471 after). Baseball is a nightmare to predict, but I do like my two World Series teams if I have to put my money on someone.

In my World Series between San Francisco and Detroit, I have the Tigers winning it all. While San Francisco has the better overall pitching of the two, their lineup is not as much of a guaranteed success and may struggle to score runs in the final few games. Cabrera and Fielder will simply never stop hitting, and I cannot pick against a team that gets guaranteed wins from one pitcher. They may not have the best all-around team, but the Tigers have a few essential pieces that can carry this team. If there are any unexpected contributions from role players, Detroit can run away with this post season. I may not like the new wildcard round, but I admit that it does make for great television. Like I hope most of you do as well, I look forward to tonight’s elimination games as the hunt for October begins.

NFL Quarterly Report: Weeks 1-4

Needless to say, the first four weeks of the NFL flew by. The endless wait for football is always met with a blinding rush of big plays, fascinating storylines and, of course, some controversy. Before you know it, we are now heading into week five. The first four games are so significant because we now have a feel for which teams are moving in which direction. We have been presented with just enough of a body of work to make valid points about this season, but there is still so much left of the mystery to unravel in upcoming weeks. For this reason, week five may be my favorite week outside of week one. Today, we are going to recap what we have seen so far and maybe make some points about the future as well.

The unfortunate highlight of this season so far has been the labor dispute between the NFL and their referees. Thankfully, this has been solved, but it did harm a good portion of the NFL season. My opinion on the notorious replacement refs is somewhat atypical because I have hated officials for years. To me, replacements were only going to continue to make the mistakes that the overrated Ed Hochuli and company have been making for years now. For this reason, I was not concerned when I learned that the NFL season would begin without the usual cast of officials. Part of me was right to not worry, but another side was dreadfully wrong. I have grown tired of hearing about the Packers-Seahawks Monday Night Football debacle. The call was clearly wrong and Green Bay got robbed. It was heartwarming to see fans and players turn on Roger Goodell, which I did long ago when he fined James Harrison more than America’s average household income in one season. That much was fun, but seeing these “real refs” serenaded from crowds everywhere upon their return last week was just pathetic and sickening.

After the return of our referees, the Giants almost stole a game from the Eagles after some rough defensive pass interference calls, and the same Green Bay Packers suffered a call that I insist was far worse than the call in Seattle. Darren Sproles fumbled a kickoff return and I swear the refs called him down by contact only because they could not determine who recovered the fumble, which was the Packers by the way. Every referee knows that a close call should always be called a turnover because fumbles and interceptions are automatically reviewed now. If Sproles was down and they called fumble, the Saints do not have to do anything and the play will be overturned. Instead, the Packers get ripped off again. The only reason this did not blow up was 1. The replacements were not there and 2. The game’s outcome was not ultimately changed because of it. We never hear the end of a bad call from a replacement, but when Gene Steratore makes that same call we hear about how hard refereeing is. My point is that the everyday referees make equally egregious errors. Where I was wrong to welcome replacement refs came in the form of procedural errors. Taking forever to spot the ball, mixing up teams or players and not understanding certain penalties are not mistakes you see from the pompous pinstripes that now grace fans with their presence. I may not love them, but at least they keep the game moving. If human error can go back to being our only officiating issue, we can all be at some degree of peace.

Now for the fun stuff from what has been an exciting start to this season. In my last articles, I methodically went on a division by division journey, but for this quarterly report summarizing the first four weeks I would rather jump around between a few standouts. The Jets have to be the worst 2-2 team in history. I cannot fully understand how their offense put such an epic beatdown on Buffalo and then fell off the face of the Earth. This team defines dysfunctional and the season ending injuries to Darrelle Revis and Santonio Holmes can only make things worse for them. On the other hand, they do sit atop the division at this very moment alongside one of the best 2-2 teams in history. The Patriots seem to be getting it together now as their dynamic offense creates turnover opportunities for their otherwise incapable defense. My Steelers will fade fast if they do not get healthy now, and Joe Flacco seems to still be riding the spoiled wave that his excellent team in Baltimore provides for him. My Chiefs prediction is looking just fantastic out west and Peyton’s Broncos seem to have some potential. I do not have enough faith in Denver to win it all, but they are a team that can upset one of the more legitimate contenders at some point. The juggernauts still lie in Baltimore and New England, but they do have their flaws. The Ravens, despite what they may tell you, lack an elite quarterback and the Patriots still do not play much defense. Speaking of flaws, I still cannot seem to find one in Houston. Is there one thing the Texans cannot do? They are efficient through the air, elite on the ground, and play excellent defense. I feel that more elite competition will bring them down to Earth, but until then let us enjoy the most dominant team in football right now.

The NFC is even more interesting to me. You have a completely revamped edition of what was the worst division in NFL history in the NFC West. It is as if the 49ers went around in the offseason teaching everyone how to play defense. The Seahawks bottled up MVP Aaron Rodgers and the Cardinals had Mike Vick drawn and quartered. All of a sudden, every single NFC division has multiple playoff contenders, which is just frightening. Teams like the Saints or Lions must be furious to basically be told by mediocre teams that their playoff chances are dead. With the aforementioned NFC West and teams like the Vikings piling up wins, you simply cannot afford a slow start. Even teams like the Giants or Cowboys at 2-2 are walking a very thin line now. I still believe that Big Blue will figure it out and that the Boys are not going anywhere, but there are many more variables than we expected from the superior conference. The Falcons are the NFC’s Texans and seem to have no flaws whatsoever. It will take a team that is simply better to beat them because they will not beat themselves. The Packers and 49ers are the NFC’s Patriots and Ravens, respectively. For this reason, I have not been sold on either Atlanta or Houston making a championship run. They may be the most complete teams, but you have to be the best in at least one major area to win it all. The Saints are a stunning 0-4, but I still believe they will finish second to the Falcons. The Panthers and Buccaneers both look terrible and, while it may no longer equate to a playoff appearance, look for the Saints to make enough of a surge to take second place in the NFC South. It seems the loss of Sean Payton for the season will be a crushing one, but I always love to see what teams do in the face of such adversity.

In contrast to the overblown replacement referees, there was one tragedy from the regular season’s first quarter that did not get nearly enough attention. Steve Sabol, the legendary president and founder of NFL Films, passed away after a battle with brain cancer dating back to March of 2011. What continues to amaze me is how someone could impact my life so much when, I confess, I did not actually know his name until the news of his death. While I am now among the world’s elite in the department of love for the NFL product, I was a late bloomer in terms of football fanaticism. My first NFL season ended with the electrifying shootout between the Patriots and Panthers in Super Bowl XXXVIII (38). Most fans my age remember Kevin Dyson stretching for the biggest Super Bowl upset that never was as the Rams took down the Titans at the turn of the millennium. For this reason, my love for football came largely from NFL films in a roughly one month viewing of NFL history. I, along with any fan since Sabol’s creation, had the privilege of witnessing the greatest presentation of any material in professional sports. NFL films elevated the sport above all others and, in my opinion, were what solidified football’s spot atop the sports world in America. My understanding of and love for the game may have been enriched through my years of watching live games, but the foundation was built from this revolutionary method of NFL transparency. While we may be without Steve Sabol, his legacy will live on for generations as the NFL films machine lives on. The NFL reigns supreme in the world of entertainment, and they have him to thank for it.

The NFL Eightfold Path: NFC East

Throughout the past two weeks, we have gone on a division by division journey in the hopes of truly understanding how the NFL is set up this season and how each team is looking as week one approaches. We started with the NFC West, where I had the 49ers repeating as division champs without much trouble. We then moved on to the AFC West, where I had the Chiefs surprising Peyton’s Broncos, who still advanced as a wildcard. In the NFC North, the Packers took care of business despite tough competition and the Bears moved on as an NFC wild card. The AFC North saw the Ravens and Steelers limp faster than Bengals could run as both held off their young rivals and made the playoffs. The Texans dominated the AFC South as the remaining three teams failed to reach winning records. The NFC South saw a shift in the balance of power as the Falcons overtook the Saints after Cam Newton had his signature win in week 17. Both New Orleans and Atlanta moved on to the playoffs, which can only mean one thing. The NFC East has traditionally been the best division in football, but last season the Giants won it with only nine wins. This season, the group as a whole will look to improve on last year’s effort, but I only see one moving on to playoff competition. It has become a bold statement to limit this division to one playoff team, but the rest of the NFC has caught up to the East, and these are not the old days when the Giants and company led the NFC’s only great division. With all that said, our NFL Eightfold Path stays home for our final destination as we figure out who wins this thing.

4. Redskins: Robert Griffin III is the X factor here who will almost single handedly guide Washington to wins or losses. I do believe in RG3, but what we are asking of him goes above and beyond where the rest of his team is ready to go. The Redskins did have a competitive defense last season but, with improved offenses around them, I think that will be put to the test. The defense that Washington fans take for granted as they hope for an improved offense may be ripped out from under them despite however many sacks Brian Orakpo can pile up. Mike Shanahan continues to stretch whatever good will his two career rings still hold for him and has helped lead this team straight into the ground with dysfunctional relationships and poor decisions. The Redskins, however, may be a very legitimate last place team in terms of playing spoiler against division rivals. Their last two games are against the Eagles and Cowboys, respectively, and I predict that everyone in New York will be big fans of the Washington Redskins by the time this regular season ends. RG3 will have an important place in this league, but he will not see this playoffs this season.

3. Cowboys: Every season, the Cowboys are somebody’s Super Bowl prediction, and I have no idea why. They have talent, but are not the most talented team. And we all know how well they play from December through the playoffs. For whatever reason, every ESPN talking head wants to be the person who predicts the return of the championship Cowboys. I like this team’s talent as much as anyone, but there is way too much uncertainty to have them in the playoffs in this great conference, let alone any Super Bowl talk. Dez Bryant is a walking red flag, Jason Witten has no spleen, and Romo will likely be as unreliable as ever despite his abilities. Also, I cannot pick a team to win its division when they have had so much trouble beating the two teams ahead of them. Superman is great too but, in a division against Kryptonite Thing 1 and 2, I do not love his chances. The secondary has taken huge strides and this defense will be what Rob Ryan’s squad was supposed to be last season. However, the nature of this team is still susceptible to blown leads and other laughable errors that will prevent them from reaching their full potential. Dallas is not the most talented team in this division and they are also not the most clutch. Those two teams are why I have them finishing third.

2. Eagles: I would have this team winning the division if I had more faith in Mike Vick’s health. With him playing all season, I say this team loses three games and earns themselves a bye week. However, if he loses three games and plays ten or twelve, this team loses enough ground to settle for second. In my scenario, this misses the playoffs. Mike Vick either needs to be healthy for an entire season, which is unlikely, or they need to be perfect while he is playing, which is also unlikely. Much like last season, Philly will be the team that no one wants to make the playoffs because of how high their highs can be. Fortunately for those teams, I do not believe they will. LeSean McCoy has emerged as an elite runner and I expect a stronger season from Desean Jackson, who can stop complaining now that he has his money. There will be games leaving experts saying this is the Eagles’ year to win it all, but their downfall will be the need to string those games together. You cannot ask Vick to be conservative while still being effective; he has to put himself in harm’s way in order to be one of the most dangerous weapons in football. Unfortunately, that leads Philadelphia to walk a thin line between dream team and nightmare. Their talent is greater than Dallas’, but there is just as much risk. It takes a sure thing to beat these two talented yet unpredictable teams.

1. Giants: Last time the Giants won it all, they got off to a hot start the following season, which came crashing down after an unexpected Monday Night Football loss to the Cleveland Browns. They hung on long enough to earn a bye week, but lost in the divisional round to none other than the Philadelphia Eagles. They ran out of gas at the wrong time, but this team is different. They are seasoned veterans when it comes to winning a championship and will be more prepared than they were for their last adventure. Michael Strahan and Amani Toomer retiring was a tough adjustment for the Giants to make. Losing two “old reliable” types may have hurt their chances in the postseason. This season, they have only lost a declining Brandon Jacobs. I like David Wilson to back up Ahmad Bradshaw once AB injures his foot. Look for huge contributions from their dynamic receiving duo of Hakeem Nicks and the salsa dancing Victor Cruz, but also keep an eye out for Martellus Bennett. The Giants have always made tight ends look great in their system, and the “Black Unicorn” will be no exception. If his self-awarded nickname is any indication, he will at least be interesting to watch, but Eli will make him feel right at home in a place where mediocre tight ends look like superstars. This is Eli’s first season starting off as an elite quarterback, and I expect him to be the one factor that gives the Giants some separation from their rivals. Notice how the criticism for the previous three QBs involved us not knowing what to expect due to some inconsistencies. Eli has become a model of consistency and reliability, and who knew we would say that after only a few seasons ago. As I mentioned in my AFC West article, people are done saying the Giants “could have had Phillip Rivers.” The relentless pass rush from big blue is almost effortless with the best pass rushing defensive line of the past decade. Their four horsemen of the apocalypse give a questionable secondary a lot of leeway. There may not be a repeat champion this season, but I do like the G-Men to win this tough division.

The Redskins are actually the main reason I did not give a wildcard spot to the Cowboys or Eagles. In this division, teams beat each other up too much and may eventually be passed up by wildcards from other divisions. RG3 could be that guy to bring down another team’s hopes, which is as satisfying as it gets for a team with a losing record. In a division with so many question marks, I choose to go with the one sure thing. The Giants identity is solidified by their pass rush and Eli’s outstanding leadership by example (sorry Tiki). New York has quietly become like the Steelers or Patriots in the sense that their system speaks for itself and, while a few pieces change, the constants carry the team to victory. Lastly, I do not want to get too into this aspect of the game but I am stunned by how much the Cowboys have trash talked their way to this season opener. And you wonder why everyone outside of your actual fans hates you. For one thing, they have absolutely no reason to justify this talk and, secondly, giving the defending champions additional motivation for the season opener has to be the dumbest thing since the last thing Jerry Jones said. I know that there is no rooting in the press box, but I hope JPP, Tuck and Osi rip Romo apart tonight. The NFL Eightfold Path was an inspiring idea, but I think the entire point of enlightenment is that we are never fully there. We may experience it, but the process of getting there is perpetual. Throughout this season, we will check in on our teams and predictions; this eight part series was living proof that there is no such thing as too much football talk. For right now, however, let us celebrate the return of America’s favorite game.

The NFL Eightfold Path: AFC East

If I had to bet everything I own on one division winner, it would be the New England Patriots. There is no reason to believe that the Patriots will face much competition in another predictable regular season ending in home field advantage and eventual playoff disappointment. The only question for them is whether or not they can break from that formula and revert to the champions of Brady’s earlier years. What lies behind them is interesting but somewhat anticlimactic as well. The three teams can end up in any order, but at the same time I do not expect any of them to make the playoffs. There is reason to believe in each team following New England, but I like Denver and Pittsburgh as more likely wildcards. It seems as if the only way to the playoffs is to follow the blueprints made by the Dolphins the year the wildcat was brought to the NFL. Someone has to take a few risks and hope for a few lucky breaks in return.

4. Dolphins: I always look more favorably towards the team that receives HBO’s Hard Knocks because, as a fan, I feel involved in their training camp experience. The insider’s look at what goes on behind closed doors can make any team more appealing to viewers. Sadly, Miami just does not have enough going on to convince me that they can consistently put up points or stop other teams from doing just that. They have individual playmakers, such as the always powerful Cameron Wake or the emergence of Reggie Bush, who has the ability to carry this offense if he stays healthy. Between Ryan Tannehill and a disappointing receiving core, the Dolphins’ offense will not be able to get off the ground. While Reggie has come a long way, he still is not a workhorse. In an easy division, the Dolphins can squeak out a few wins to stay out of the NFL basement, but it is going to be a tough season in Miami.

3. Bills: Most people feel the Bills will be the runner up in this division and may be the only team that can give New England a fight. I understand their reasoning because outside of the Patriots, the Bills actually have the division’s best quarterback, running back, and receiver all on the same offense. With the addition of elite pass rusher Mario Williams, the Buffalo defense should be a force to be reckoned with as well. All signs lead to a strong showing from the Bills except one. It is a pretty underwhelming reason, but a hunch tells me to not overreact to the Buffalo Bills looking pretty good. Every season, the Bills seem to look great and start the season with a 4-0 record or something of that nature. Then, they fade dramatically and are ultimately a six win team. This season, anything less than 4-0 should mean disaster for a team that is known to lose momentum as the season goes on. The Bills are finally competitive on paper, but I still cannot associate this organization with a winning record. After all, the Ryan Fitzpatrick and Stevie Johnson connection has been there for years. Despite the great signing of Williams, the team as a whole is not very different at all. Sure, if the Jets score zero touchdowns this year then Buffalo will have a clear path at second place. However, I still say the Bills end up in the third spot.

2. Jets: The Jets may have the worst offense in football and their team as a whole is a walking circus. We get it, and there is no degree of Jets criticism that we have not already heard. What we have not heard as often is what I would like to focus on first, which is the resurgence of Rex Ryan’s defense. The lack of a pass rush has hurt the Jets defense as a whole and has eased them out of the elite category. However, I think role players such as Aaron Maybin and first round draft pick Quentin Coples will generate enough pressure to let the league’s best secondary lock down opposing receivers. Bart Scott and David Harris are the best middle linebacker combination outside of San Francisco. They and a solid defensive line can stuff the run while the young edge rushers make names for themselves. I think the Jets defense is set to make a return to what we saw a couple of years ago when Rex first arrived. Sanchez and the offense are obviously a train wreck, which is why the Jets still cannot catch the Patriots this season, but their defense is better than either Buffalo unit. If the offense can limit their turnovers and live with being mediocre, they will accidentally score enough points for that defense to win games.

1. Patriots: Even with a historically bad defense, there is nothing stopping the Patriots from casually winning another fourteen games this season. Opposing teams simply cannot keep up with their machine of an offense and repeatedly turn the ball over when they try doing so. I am most likely alone on this one, but I believe Tom Brady has gotten worse over the years. During his championship runs, he would spread the ball out and made the New England offense as unpredictable as it was effective. Now, Brady has severe tunnel vision for two targets with Welker and Gronkowski, especially in clutch situations. He can easily fix this, but the dependence on these two pass catchers makes the Patriots not easy to stop, but at least easy to figure out. This allowed the creation of a formula that could actually defeat them, but only the Giants seem to have it figured out and executed it. The first requirement is that you have a good pass rush without blitzing. The pressure created by the basic four man rush creates a need for a quick release from Brady, but he has no problem with this. After all, his options are a wide receiver that runs five yard routes and a tight end that runs ten yard routes. The Pats have lacked any threat beyond these distances, so the Giants stack most of their coverage in the five to ten yard range, creating a smokescreen of G-Men for Brady to throw into. Only one or two guys stay deep just in case, which is enough of a safety net to prevent a big play from a small play team. While the Pats seem intricate, they only operate within the hash marks of a five to ten yard depth, which is a grand approximate total of 60 yards. Each of the Giants in this area only have about 15 yards of surface area to cover, which is not exactly challenging to a professional linebacker or safety. This is very limiting to New England’s offense, even for someone with Brady’s accuracy. When the Giants give Brady so little time to throw into such a small and crowded window, you get the biggest upsets in NFL history. Beating the Pats defense is then easy. Just show up.

I know I went more into the Patriots’ scheme than their actual chances this season, but that is because their path is obvious. They will win the AFC East and we will measure their success by their fate in the playoffs. The addition of Brandon Lloyd may help defeat the formula, but even with him there Brady has to make the conscious effort to get him involved. The only twist ending would be if a team without Eli Manning 1. figures this winning formula out and 2. can actually do it. The AFC East is a mystery beyond this point, but I have faith in the Jets’ ability to be defined by their strengths instead of their weaknesses. It has become popular to mock them, probably because the combined efforts of Sanchez and Tebow are pretty funny. But I believe the defensive one trick pony will follow its offensive counterpart in these standings. The Bills are not quite there yet as whole, and I fear another potentially strong start will go to waste in upstate New York. As a whole, this division is one Patriots away from being among the lowest of the low. I am happy to say that for our final stop on my NFL Eightfold Path seeks to reclaim its title as the NFL’s best division. They took a hit in the 2011 regular season but eventually emerged from a thick veil of mediocrity with a Super Bowl champion. For our final stop, we will pay the defending champion Giants a visit and, hopefully, achieve football enlightenment.

The NFL Eightfold Path: NFC South

The NFC South is primarily known for its quarterbacks and its parody. Teams have frequently been able to go from worst to first despite tough competition. I cannot say the Bucs are prepared to do this, but the fact remains that this division is no stranger to surprises. The Saints’ bounty scandal and suspensions level the playing field and chip away at the supreme level of talent in New Orleans, but whether or not it will be enough to dethrone the division champs remains to be seen. Cam Newton is certainly a fun story but, in order to progress as a player, his NFL relevance will have to equal his fantasy football importance. There is a big leap between being a great player on a bad team and elevating that team to playoff contention. The Falcons had a solid season brought to a violent end by the eventual Super Bowl champions, and will compete with the remaining two underdogs to chase after the room left by the Saints’ disastrous offseason.

4. Buccaneers: Based on the eye test alone, I believe this was the worst team in football last season. They may not have had the worst record, but their play and effort were nonexistent throughout the second half of the season. Josh Freeman’s development took a huge step backwards and I could not even get a fair read on their defense because they were so apathetic. With Vincent Jackson bringing some life back into Freeman’s passing offense, I am sure Tampa will be more respectable as a team, but their record may be just as bad. I wish there was more to say about the Buccaneers, but in this division and conference they simply do not stack up well enough to be competitive. In the NFC, there are few easy wins, and the Bucs are one of them.

3. Panthers: Cam Newton pieced together the most impressive personal rookie season in NFL history. He was the downfall of the Green Bay defense, dominated both the air and ground, and single handedly revived Steve Smith’s dynamic career. The key word behind his accomplishments is personal because while he did make the Panthers better, it still felt like more of a fantasy football exhibition than a team making a playoff push. Last year, I had the Panthers as the second best NFL offseason, next to only the “dream team” Eagles. Not only did I have faith in Cam, but the moves made to hang onto their talent and bring in some new free agents were impressive to me as well. With all this said, I was clearly on the Carolina bandwagon, however this year’s perceived playoff chances may be a slight overreaction. I still see Newton and company as an eight win team, which would be another improvement. Despite being third here, the Panthers are certainly trending in the right direction. The return of John Beason at middle linebacker will single handedly fix most of their defensive issues. He is basically Pat Willis on a lesser team. With Williams and Stewart joining Cam’s ground efforts, Carolina can definitely lead the NFL in rushing, which would be great for the other aspects of this very promising team.

2. Saints: Drew Brees shattered records last season and should be a guarantee to win almost any division by himself. In addition to this record setting aerial assault, the Saints quietly have an excellent and versatile running game as well. With Pierre Thomas as the consistency, Darren Sproles for big plays, and an undetermined amount of production from a now healthy Mark Ingram, this team would win half of their games with a terrible quarterback. The biggest story here is obviously the bounty scandal and the suspensions that stripped New Orleans of a defensive coordinator, a head coach, a middle linebacker and everyone else affected by a process that I may or may not despise. While the commissioner’s habits are for another day, we are forced to move on taking into account these penalties. At face value, the Saints still have what makes them dominant. Their many offensive weapons are still intact, however in a strong division there may be more to winning than firepower. Allegedly, Sean Payton is the NFL’s best and most intricate play caller. I am sure Drew Brees and what is left of the coaching staff can piece something effective together, but I cannot imagine a repeat of last season without Payton calling the shots. Without the head coach that built this phenomenal offense, we can expect at least a slight dip in production. Without a shutdown defense, this slight decrease on offense may be enough to give the division away to a more complete team.

1. Falcons: Complete is the first word that comes to mind when I think of the Atlanta Falcons. Michael Turner has made them one of the best ground and pound teams in the NFL, and he now has the luxury of Matt Ryan’s one-two punch of receivers. Roddy White and Julio Jones can take the NFL’s best wide receiver duo title this season. Anytime someone as elite as Roddy White may lose his number one receiver spot to a young player that the team essentially traded the General Manager’s house for, you know you have something special. Defensively, Atlanta has playmakers but has always been one dominant middle linebacker away from being as complete on defense as they are on offense. I always wanted to photoshop John Beason onto their roster to just see what happens. Either way, Atlanta has what it takes to win this division because they are finally becoming as dynamic as they are balanced. Turner may be aging but, with those two outside weapons, he is about to receive a lot more room to run. Matt Ryan is not elite, but has always been able to maintain a great offense as long as the pieces are already in place. My main concern with this team is their dramatic decrease in performance once the playoffs arrive. They are the only team in this division to not appear in a Super Bowl in the past decade. From Mike Vick’s era to Matt Ryan’s, they can seemingly never reach the Promised Land. Maybe part of it is just bad luck when you consider the fact that their last two eliminations were to eventual Super Bowl champions. Despite this coincidence, I do not give them a break. Anyone with the awful nickname “Matty Ice” should be able to elevate his play in the biggest games, especially now that his supporting cast is fantastic. I have the Falcons winning this division, but the regular season has never exactly been their problem.

I briefly mentioned NFC South quarterbacks earlier, and I would someday like to find which division really is the best collection of four quarterbacks. My first impression is between here and the NFC East, but when the time comes it could be anyone according to the numbers. In terms of this season’s results, I do think the Saints may lose control of this division, but I still expect them to advance to the playoffs. This would leave the last spot to a fight between the winner of the Bears-Lions conflict and the NFC East runner up. I may not have given Carolina as much credit as people would expect after the progress they made last season, but I do believe Cam Newton will determine the winner of this division when they play the Saints in week 17. That one game may be all that separates the two top teams if Cam is able to upset Drew Brees and a limping New Orleans Saints. Next time, we have finally made our way home on our NFL path of enlightenment. It is almost time to play the yearly game of figuring out the order of the AFC East teams behind the Patriots.