A Reluctant Congratulations: 2012 NBA Finals Aftermath

               

              I feel like a less important version of when President Obama hosted the Green Bay Packers and had to celebrate their 2011 Super Bowl victory. Watching a team you root against win it all and then having to give credit where credit is due is an unpleasant but necessary part of being an all-around sports fan. What interests me just as much as what transpired in the series is the aftermath and reactions from the NBA’s fans. This may be the one case in professional sports in which these spectators may become even more fascinating than the teams and players. But before I move on to that, I will fight my strong urge to ignore the Heat’s accomplishment and give some credit to the NBA’s best collection of talent. Lebron was huge throughout this playoff run and finally realized that the best way to escape his endless criticism was to ignore it and just enjoy playing the game he loves. The spiteful Lebron only defeated himself by getting too worked up and choking in the biggest moments of the most important games. As a new man, he learned to stop fighting the off-court battles and stick to competing only against the opposing team. Chris Bosh reminded us that this Heat team is a Big 3, not a Big 2. The Heat as a whole stepped up and did everything possible to avoid another finals disaster by rising to the occasion and capturing an elusive championship. It may only be their second year together, and people like me still wonder how it took them so long. This team was destined to beat everyone in their path, and have finally done so.

My last NBA article previewed this series and predicted a Heat victory. However I do not exactly want a medal for it; my logic was that a ring for the hated king was inevitable when he joined this team. I said that so many things were not going their way and that if they fixed even one, OKC would have no chance. As it turns out, more than one of these factors improved. Bosh returned from his injury and performed like the superstar he is supposed to be, role players outside the Big 3 stepped up (Battier, Miller and Chalmers) and Wade stopped pretending to be injured and was the same player that won it all in 2006. The play itself was like any other Heat game; the Big 3 made a lot of layups and free throws, and then they played the defense that a team with three superstars should play. OKC made every game interesting but were consistently beaten because their defense is not elite and their offense became inconsistent in the face of elite defense.

            To fans of the Heat, there are aspects of this that you simply must acknowledge, but I also have a lot in your favor coming up after this. The NBA has given Lebron, Wade and to a lesser degree Bosh preferential treatment throughout their NBA careers. When they decided to come together, this treatment naturally accumulated and now more than half of your starting lineup will get every benefit of the doubt. They also flop more than any other collection of players, which is an embarrassment to the game and gives ammunition to people who say they hate the NBA in comparison to other major sports. I basically watched the NBA finals and Euro 2012’s first round simultaneously, and anyone who looks down on European footballers for flopping is kidding themselves because basketball is catching up fast. Lebron and Wade are also not among the NBA’s best defensive players; they are simply very good defensive players who are allowed to foul, which is invaluable when you are playing America’s softest professional sport. Lebron’s natural talent combined with the knowledge that he could have assaulted KD if he had to made his defense even more impenetrable than it already is. On the other side of the court, he knows he can just run you over because he still ends up on the free throw line, maybe even completing an old fashioned three point play.

            Clearly there is a lot more on Miami’s side than three great players, but the only thing I find more aggravating than an essentially pre-determined champion are the people who attribute this entire outcome to terrible officiating. Let’s not overanalyze this, the main reason the Heat won is not because the refs took their talents to South Beach two years ago. It is because two top-five and three top-ten players did. If you told any NBA fan living in 2009 that this Big 3 would be together, they would treat the NBA as I do, an inevitable outcome. Basketball is very unique because three free agent signings really can win a championship, which was evident this season. The Big 3 took a third grade reading level coach and a junior varsity bench to the promised land in a city that would still trade the entire Heat franchise for a Dolphins playoff berth. I know this comment will not reflect the most popular opinion, but they are the best three players to ever play together. Think about it, the famous Lakers/Celtics Big 3s made each other better and took well rounded teams to championships. These Miami guys make each other worse and still got it done with next to nothing around them. Flawed as it is, the NBA is a system that every team and fan willingly participates in. If you have a problem with how unfair it is playing the Heat, do what Dirk did and make every single shot. The Heat are not a team that should ever lose, so you cannot say they only won because David Stern and his striped clowns wear Lebron pajamas.

            You have to look past officiating because at this rate it will never change in the NBA. Instead, there is much to dissect within the Thunder’s actual play that really let them down in their franchise’s biggest moments in history. We already know defense is not necessarily their strength, but not rotating to protect the paint after James/Wade blows by inconsistent perimeter defense is not nearly enough to have a chance at winning a playoff series. Tony Parker did the same thing to them, but his lack of size and power did not exploit them as badly; he usually looks to kick it out and pass after cutting through the lane anyway. Lebron, however, will  dunk on your face. You cannot just let these things happen, the easy points are what make Miami so invincible. On offense, OKC’s forte, I have a somewhat strange criticism. People always pick on Westbrook for how often he shoots, but I have a very different opinion. Sure, the guy is not Steve Nash, but as I watched game four reach its closing stages I realized that he was the only one who even wanted to keep playing. He furiously drives the lane and either makes incredible layups or draws enough contact to win over even the most lopsided referees. He may not be the smartest guy in the room, but his aggressive mindset and competitive desire is something that I have actually started to doubt in one of my favorite athletes in the world, one Kevin Durant.

KD is far too passive for his own good. I used to be amazed by his slightly underwhelming but very efficient stat lines. I feel like every time I check he’s about 9 of 18 from the field with about 25 points while Westbrook takes 30 shots to drop 40 points and is a selfish player. Maybe that’s because after Durant passes up at least two or three opportunities to drive the lane and assert his dominance, Westbrook is the only guy who knows someone is going to have to try something. If Durant is a true leader he will do something other than take a reluctant jump shot because he’s wide open. On the rare occasion when Durant treats us by dropping his head and deciding that he wants something, he has humiliated the likes of Andrew Bynum or Chris Bosh in the past few weeks alone. I agree that Westbrook should not be ball hogging but when all else fails, someone has to take matters into his own hands, and it should be the three time scoring champion prodigy instead of his hot headed point guard. Durant is one adrenaline shot away from being immortal, and I need to see that happen before I can excuse him from disappointing losses like the past four. It seems crazy with the incredible fourth quarter performances in games one and two, but Durant’s passiveness actually holds this team back. His individual performances were very impressive, but there was just something missing. It was as if he was playing hard in a pickup game, as opposed to a series with a championship on the line. Difficult to explain, but so easy to see next to players like James, Wade, and Westbrook, who were all willing to die out there on the court if necessary. Sure, Durant’s willingness to not be the main guy on every possession is a part of what makes him both unique and great, but it also allows the rest of the offense to fall apart without someone to get them back on track. Lenient parents are great for well-behaved kids, but Westbrook has the tendency to misbehave. With him going crazy, Harden disappearing for games at a time, and big men who cannot create a decent shot for themselves, Durant has to know when to put the kids to bed and clean up the mess himself.

That does it for the Xs and Os, but like I said earlier, the fans here interest me more because those battles will continue to be fought in the aftermath of a less competitive contest between the actual teams involved. The debate leaves me with one ongoing question that can be interpreted differently by fans with very different opinions. Two criticisms awarded to people in my position are “hater” and “band-wagoner”. The term hater is the undeveloped mind’s name for someone who wants any outcome that is not in your best interest. It is also a hasty defense used by fans of a team whose star player is disliked by the majority of people outside of their city. I sympathize with this as a Yankees fan who has had to support A-Rod for eight years or so. Rather than acknowledge all there is to dislike about my third baseman, it would be much easier to dismiss all conflicting opinions as haters. Sadly, I see the Boston fan’s point and while he is still my guy, I cannot pretend that he does not deserve what comes his way. As for the Thunder bandwagon, I and many like me have been rooting for the team that plays against the Heat ever since this modern roster came together. A bandwagon fan is one who switches teams to pretend as if his/her favorite team won it all. This is not the case here and rooting for whoever plays against your team is perfectly fine.  As a Yankee fan with a healthy amount of Red Sox friends, I do not exactly consider it some sort of bandwagon when they root for my every opponent. On the other hand, newborn Miami fans are not frontrunners because they showed up as soon as Lebron did. If he was a child’s favorite player and that kid grew up watching and idolizing him without ever taking a strong liking to his/her home team, then of course they will gravitate to the Heat with their new and exciting roster. Also, some people just love greatness and dominance. I root for Tiger Woods because he is the strongest knot that keeps my interest in golf intact. Perhaps some people view the Heat as the thing that keeps them watching basketball. Both the pro and anti-Heat motivations are noble enough causes and neither should receive criticism for that group’s respectable beliefs.

From the Facebook back and forth to ongoing ESPN debates, I only have one question to anyone with an opinion on the matter. Of course champions are champions, but for the first time in history anything short of a championship is an absolute disgrace. Sure, every sport has its favorites, but in this league one team has the weight of the world on their shoulders. I am not pitying the Heat; the stunts they pulled in assembling this team deserve nothing more than the burden of an eight championship minimum. It is simply a fact that the requirements from these players exceed any in the history of professional sports. With all that said, I want to know if this team impresses you. When USA basketball won gold in Beijing, did that impress you? To me, our NBA all-star team beating countries with maybe one decent NBA player is great, but it is not overly impressive. It is more of a necessity, the cost of being a huge favorite. If Magic Johnson and Karl Malone joined Michael Jordan in Chicago to win more championships, that would not impress me either. It would have been pretty awesome for Bulls fans or for Mailman fans who wanted to finally see the big guy get a ring, but nothing special in the grand scheme of things because it would be expected and a pretty obvious outcome. So do the Heat impress you, or did they just avoid disaster this season? That is what I really want to know from anyone willing to comment on any Facebook post this is shared on, as well as your thoughts on the series in general, because I personally am leaning towards the latter. In my opinion, the Heat are the first team in history to dodge a bullet by winning a championship.

Euro 2012 Continues

             The group stages of Euro 2012 did not disappoint fans of the world’s favorite game. My favorite statistic that emerged from each team’s first three games was the number of 0-0 draws, which was zero. I do not mind a defensive battle, but I always feel as if every goal could be one giant leap for soccer’s popularity as a whole. With only eight teams remaining, a close look at what each has done so far may indicate their likely fate in the next couple of weeks. The four quarterfinal matches are all intriguing and, aside from a massively disappointing Netherlands squad, the teams I considered to be legitimate contenders are still intact. Germany and Spain are my clear number one and two teams, an opinion shared by most. The Spanish show more vulnerability with their offensive struggles and hit or miss play from Torres, but both superpowers seem ready to possibly make a run towards meeting up in the championship game. My next tier consisted of France and England. Despite France’s last game, I think they still have what it takes to compete with anyone. England was even more of a pleasant surprise, playing well enough without Rooney and then smoothly transitioning to his return. These four, along with the other half of nations that survived the group stages, now face touch matchups as Euro 2012 reaches its later stages.

Game 1-Czech Republic vs. Portugal: The Czechs’ group was by far the weakest and, as a result, I do not have as much trust in the two teams that advanced between those four. Between that and how Portugal has exceeded my expectations, I cannot imagine this one ending in anything but a Portuguese victory. Ronaldo’s improving play is not something his national squad is spoiled by and the physical strength of their central defenders Pepe and Bruno Alves has been very impressive. If they stay strong on defense and Ronaldo continues to play to his potential, this one should not be too much of a problem for Portugal. I know I will regret posting score predictions, but I was actually pretty good with scores during group play and had nothing to show for it so I owe it to myself to give it a shot. 3-1 Portugal

Game 2-Germany vs. Greece: Much like Spain vs. Ireland in group play, I have this as the most lopsided matchup. The Greeks will not likely lose by an embarrassing margin, but I do not see them posing a threat to, in my opinion, the world’s best team right now. This may be one of those 1-0 or 2-1 blowouts, if you believe in such a thing. Greece may stay in the game on the scoreboard, but keeping an eye on the game may leave you thinking differently. Germany is too finely tuned a machine to lose focus and slip up against a clearly inferior opponent. While Greece has the makeup of a team capable of an upset, Germany does not resemble a team that is about to be upset. 2-0 Germany

Game 3-Spain vs. France: The last thing France needs after a tough 2-0 loss to Sweden is a matchup against Spain. I feel they would be ready to bounce back strongly, but were dealt too tough a hand to deal with here. Their defense has looked iffy at best and there is only so much Ribery and Nasri can generate to keep the spotlight off of a unit that has failed to protect goalkeeper Hugo Lloris well. France has one of the few midfields that can rival the Spanish midfield’s control of the game and striker Karim Benzema is every bit as good as his Spanish counterpart Fernando Torres, but the strength of Gerard Pique and Sergio Ramos’ defense should outlast the French attack. Spain is not as pretty as what we have been used to in recent years, but they can still get the job done. 1-0 Spain

Game 4-England vs. Italy: Winning their group was huge for England because it made the difference between playing Italy and playing Spain. Italy looks pretty sharp but nothing is more crippling than a defensive minded team losing its best defender, Giorgio Chiellini. This is a huge break for the English, one Wayne Rooney and company should be able to take advantage of. Goalie Joe Hart continues to prove that his position was the one thing the English roster was missing in South Africa’s 2010 World Cup, and if Rooney’s last goal was a sign of things to come, the English are set for this round. England also seemed to steal the Irish luck after a Ukraine goal was saved by the heroic effort of defender John Terry, but the ball seemed to fully cross the goal line. Despite the evidence, soccer’s lack of replay could not do anything about the blown call. I certainly do not mind this as a fan of this team, after all they suffered a similar blown call in 2010 that changed the entire dynamic of their final World Cup game against Germany. Until our refs learn how to use a camera, the soccer gods seem to have things under control. 2-1 England

            The knockout stages of this tournament are set up to be as exciting as fans could hope for. One underappreciated element directly contrasts the 2010 World Cup, in which the world’s major superstars such as Ronaldo, Messi and Rooney struggled and scored a combined one goal. With Ronaldo and Rooney already looking strong and the possible return of Torres, this tournament may bring star studded action to matches that are also driven by strong team efforts. The most we could ask for as fans is for all surviving teams to perform to their fullest potential so we can be treated to more great matches as the last eight countries compete for the Euro 2012 title.

NBA Finals 2012

The NBA always has been the most predictable of the major sports, with a small group of elite teams and a finite number of championship possibilities. This year’s matchup should come as no surprise; Miami and OKC occupied the number one and two spots in the NBA’s pre-season power rankings. Even in a compressed season, the two conference champions have proven that they are simply too talented to be taken out in a best of seven series in a league with aging talent and less than ten legitimate contenders. Miami’s summer of 2010 stunt seemingly rigged the league in their favor, however from Dallas last season to Boston last week, the Heat have been tested. The three superstars have cleared a path to the finals with next to zero contributions from their supporting cast, but they will now face their toughest test yet to see if three players really can win a championship.

In the other corner are the Oklahoma City Thunder, whose youthful exuberance and unrelenting energy nicely compliment their talent and depth. Their “Big 3” combination of Durant, Westbrook and Harden quietly put up more points than Miami’s 3 by a narrow margin (68.4 vs. 67.2). Between this and how well the rest of their roster continues to perform, KD and company may be this season’s Mavericks. Another significant detail is while the Heat were edging out the Celtics in game seven, the Thunder had already completed a much more impressive playoff run. Their competition was filled with dynasties and defending champions, as opposed to the Heat’s run. Most of their opponents were not even playoff ready (Knicks/Pacers). Rather than tell you about the Thunder playoff run myself, Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich should. His post-game conference after his Spurs were eliminated did not mourn the loss of his playoff chances; it instead praised the Thunder’s accomplishment and how they deserved it. I suppose winning as much as he has helps someone look at the big picture, but so long as Belichick still exists I am going to appreciate a gracious press conference. Anyway, Popovich pointed out that the Thunder defeated three teams in this post-season that together, won ten of the past thirteen championships. If they beat the Heat, it will be eleven of the past thirteen. If that is not a literal passing of the NBA torch, I have no idea what is.

In terms of this next series, I believe the entire outcome hangs in the balance of one factor. OKC is a primarily offensive team that plays good but not elite defense. Miami’s offense is however many points the big three can score, which on a great day is about 75, and then what little offense the rest of the team can manage. However, their defense is the best in the NBA and can shut down even the most prolific systems. The Thunder offense against the Heat defense will determine the series, because we basically know what we are going to see at the other end of the floor, which is high 90s and possibly 100 from the Heat offense if the bench is not a complete embarrassment. What remains to be seen is whether or not OKC can score over 100 consistently against the Heat defense. You could argue that the Thunder have not seen a defense nearly as tough as Miami’s. You could also argue that between the disgraceful Knicks “system”, a Pacers team that lacks a dominant scorer, and an old Celtics team, the Heat have not faced an offense nearly as good as Durant and company. Boston’s only young player consistently torched the Heat, and OKC has a few of those.

It was nice to see the Thunder put an end to criticisms like “too young” or “inexperienced”. As coach Scott Brooks added, “our goal was never to make the finals, it was to win a championship.” That puts an end to the upcoming criticism that they are complacent with what is already the best season in the young franchise’s history. I do not doubt their ability and that between their talent and depth, they are the best pure team in the NBA. However, the Heat are a completely different animal that is just plain unfair to deal with. The reason I think a Heat championship is inevitable is because of the few factors Heat opponents are taking for granted. Bosh is only just returning from an injury that kept him out through the majority of these playoffs, Wade has consistently taken entire first halves off, and the Heat continue to miss clutch shots that could win games. If even one of those things changes in Miami’s favor, I would assume even the Thunder have no chance. I am almost positive at least one of those three factors will because that is simply too much to hope for as a “Heat-hater”. I said in my last NBA article that the Thunder were only down 2-0 in their series against the Spurs because their offense was so fast and superior to previous their opponents, and that it was a shock to their system. If they suffer a similar start due to the speed and dominance of the Heat’s defense, another big comeback would be impossible.

NHL's Kings Take the Cup

The Los Angeles Kings, with their impressive 6-1 game six victory over the New Jersey Devils, finished one of the most dominant and unlikely Stanley Cup playoff runs in NHL history. The Kings went up 3-0 in each and every round, which is certainly a comfortable way to progress through the post-season. This made finishing off each opponent only a matter of time. Now that the Cup has been officially captured, the NHL and its fans get to absorb the full reality of a Los Angeles Kings championship. Regardless of how many years you have been watching hockey, that has to sounds strange. Even their fans this year had to be pretty surprised as the Kings dominated the first, second, and third seeds of the western conference with a combined record of 12-2. Their sudden jump from mediocre to elite came so quickly and with such force that by the time LA was up 3-0 on the Devils, very few people were still so shocked by the NHL’s first 8^th seed champion.

This past year in sports has given even greater significance to the concept of just making the playoffs and then getting hot at the right time. The New York Giants gave up more points than they scored in the 2011 regular season and had the league’s 25^th ranked defense. What could have been foreboding statistics became an unlikely recipe for Super Bowl champions, all because the Giants tended to their weaknesses and played excellent defense when it mattered most. In a similar fashion, the Kings may be one of the more underwhelming Stanley Cup champions on paper. However, the quality of their run and style of play may have been among the greatest to ever hoist the cup.

A large part of the Kings 2011-12 story can be told by the numbers. The biggest star to emerge from this year’s NHL playoffs was LA goalie Jonathan Quick. While he has only recently become a household name, his level of excellence is nothing new to LA fans. Quick’s 1.95 goals against average was the best in hockey, and the Kings team goals against average of 2.07 ranked second in the NHL. Going into the playoffs, these league leading performances in net made the Kings a very legitimate threat, but their offensive struggles were also well documented. Their 2.29 goals per game ranked second to last in the NHL, making the team as a whole statistically average. Defense may traditionally win championships, but it was going to take a dramatic increase on offense to give Quick enough help to make a serious playoff run. Fortunately for the Kings, their 3 playoff goals per game have made them a considerable threat on offense and their defense has gone from great to incredible with 1.41 playoff goals per game given up. The numerical changes are clear, but that still does not fully explain just how the Kings rose to the NHL throne. After all, the stats are the result of improved play, not the cause.

The Kings owe their change in play to an offensive change in mindset. As a fan of a team that struggles offensively, I know that even the best goalie and defense combo are not enough. At the end of the day, you need to consistently score goals in order to stand a fighting chance. The Kings spent all year failing to create offense because their passing is not intricate or skilled enough to maintain possession of the puck. Towards the end of the regular season, they made the transition to a more aggressive offense. Their use of what soccer would call through-balls, long passes to free up a fast break, is by far the best in the NHL. Instead of a more meticulous offense that involves four or more passes to set up the perfect shot, they throw the deep ball and utilize their speed. Teams like the Devils go with the more possession-oriented offense because they can and their players are capable of the necessary stick handling. The Kings have reformed themselves into a fast-break machine; their players have the innate ability to find each other from across the ice and make the big play happen.

The mindset carries over to their defensive play as well. As a Rangers fan, I am used to a team that packs down around the net. We leave the point men alone and blocked shots keep the puck out of the net. The weakness in this system is never possessing the puck and it seems like entire games are played in our defensive zone. The Kings defense is as aggressive as their offense. Their centers and wingers fly around the perimeter with a sense of urgency to dispossess their opponents of the puck as quickly as possible. This often leads to interceptions around the blue line, which is a nice compliment to a fast break offense. That sense of urgency is the defining aspect of a Los Angeles Kings game and it overwhelmed every opponent they faced in the playoffs.

The Kings may not have been the most talented team in hockey, but they proved to be the best team by far. They knew their strengths and utilized them to create a system that no opponent could survive. It took the Eastern Conference Champions to just win two games. The decisive game six was a fitting end to their historic playoff run, because it symbolized everything that made them great. They worked harder, played great defense and seized every opportunity they earned. They won the games in which they were the better team (an underrated ability) and in the first two Stanley Cup games, they proved they could even win when they were outplayed. They beat the number one, two and three western teams and then beat a Devils team that was better than any of them. I enjoyed the beginning of this series as a bitter Rangers fan, and any fan who does not route for a neutral team over one that just beat them is shamelessly lying. However, by the end I also enjoyed this series and appreciated the Kings’ run as a hockey fan privileged enough to see the most impressive NHL playoff performance I have ever seen.

Euro 2012 Preview

This Friday, June 8^th marks the beginning of the biggest event soccer has to offer, outside of the World Cup of course. In fact, from a strictly competitive standpoint, you could even make an argument for this tournament over the World Cup because there is some degree of trimming the fat when countries that qualify from less competitive continents are excluded (sadly, we are a perfect example of this…) There is definitely a strong case to be made for a bracket that limits the contestants to where the world’s best football is played, but South Americans would take offense to that so the awarding of that title can be reserved for another day. Either way, Euro 2012 is a must watch for not just soccer fans, but for sports fans in general. As the Stanley Cup finals and NBA Playoffs come to a close, Euro 2012 will roughly be reaching the knockout rounds. The crowning of the European champions leaves only a short window until the London Summer Olympics. Just like that you have a jam packed summer, and Euro 2012 is right in the middle of it all. The sixteen participating nations will compete in group play prior to the quarterfinals, and the groups are arranged as follows (top two from each group move on):

Group A: 1. Czech Republic 2. Greece 3. Poland 4. Russia

-This group is definitely the competition’s weakest, we may as well refer to this one as the group of life. Not one of these countries made it to the knockout stages of the 2010 World Cup, and I cannot see any of them taking out the winners of the other groups when the time comes. However, there is still potential here and sometimes it can be even more fun to try predicting who will rise above the shadows of mediocrity. Call me crazy, but I think the Greeks make it out of this one. Maybe keeping my handful of Greek family and friends forced my hand on this one, but there is logic to support the outlandish claim. Greece plays defensively to a fault, figuring they will score at some point in at least 90 minutes. This is not a safe assumption by any means in this sport, but the mindset has served them well before, as recently as their Euro championship in 2004. A better team than this one, yes, but a similar style may actually flourish in a group that, as a whole, has underwhelming talent. Secondly, I think Russia has the most legitimate firepower that can carry them past group play. Andrey Arshavin and company are capable of blowing teams out, and may do just that against relatively weak competition.

Group B: 1. Denmark 2. Germany 3. Netherlands 4. Portugal

-In direct contrast to our last set of teams, this is most definitely the group of death. Three nightmarish squads and Denmark, so we can cross one off. Between the remaining three, unfortunately someone has to go. This is Portugal’s second consecutive group of death appearance and they are my odd man out here. As usual, Ronaldo will impress, but the rest of the roster cannot quite compare to Germany and the Netherlands, who I have advancing. If Spain was not basically flawless in 2010, that would have been an excellent championship game two years ago and I have that game as the best matchup that this opening round has to offer.

Group C: 1. Croatia 2. Ireland 3. Italy 4. Spain

-We know that the debate over Spain will not be whether or not they win this group. Their moment of truth will come much later, and this one is the easiest team to put through to the next round. In terms of the second team, however, I am not ready to give Italy a pass for slowly regressing every two years since their World Cup championship in 2006. I think that one of the bigger surprises will be Italy’s failure to impress and the only thing left up to chance here is whether or not one of the two remaining nations are enough to hurdle them, which I am not fully convinced of. Italy still has plenty of ability, but my faith in them has all but run out. My heart and heritage tell me to pick Ireland, and each day I grow more tempted, but Croatia is simply better and more likely to expose Italy’s flaws. I cannot let an impulse win on this one; the Ireland sweatshirt is coming out but I know better than to promise anything. If either team is good enough to disappoint Italy, I say Croatia moves on.

Group D: 1. England 2. France 3. Sweden 4. Ukraine

-Unlike Italy, I feel like France’s monumental disappointment at the 2010 World Cup will be avenged. If their team even somewhat has their act together, they will emerge as the best from this last group. Ukraine should be a non-factor. England scares me, they will be without my man Wayne Rooney for their crucial game against Sweden, which I think will determine the second team to move on. Despite his temporary absence and the loss of midfielder Frank Lampard to injury, I think the English find a way to piece things together. Joe Hart is a colossal improvement to the goalkeeping they received two years ago; that alone may make the crucial difference that pushes them into the next round. Despite the challenge that the man-beast Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Sweden will present, I say England gets it done this time around.

Just to recap, I have Russia, Greece, Germany, Netherlands, Spain, Croatia, France, and England advancing. In terms of the big picture, I won’t get too ahead of myself because for all I know half of these guys won’t actually make it after all. However, my favorites going into the tournament as a whole are Germany and the Netherlands. For Spain, who ranks closely behind these two in my opinion, Fernando Torres’ play has been improving lately but I doubt he will bring the level of production that Spain became spoiled by from David Villa, who will miss Euro 2012 due to a broken leg he suffered in one of Barcelona’s club matches at the tail end of last year. Torres is a threat, but he hardly does the world’s best midfield, defense and goalie any justice. Despite all this talent, Spain may simply struggle to put the ball in the back of the net when they need it most. Hard to consider these true sleepers, but I think that France and England could get on a roll and pose a legitimate threat to these three powerhouses. France has a strong statement to make and if England can win without Rooney, they can do a lot of damage once they have him back.

Somehow, Euro 2012 stands among the highest of high points that this summer of sports has to look forward to. I will check back in to go over what went down during group play and what we will have to be excited about throughout the knockout stages but until then, enjoy the beautiful game and all that Euro 2012 has to offer.

So You're Saying There's A Chance: The NBA SRG

You could argue that both NBA Conference Finals series began predictably, with arguably the NBA’s two most dominant teams taking care of business at home. In the West, the Spurs continued to execute their offense to perfection and extended their winning streak to an incredible twenty games. In the East, the Heat used their overwhelming, top-heavy offense and suffocating defense against a Celtics team that had previously found the fountain of youth during this playoff run. Boston was seemingly sent back to square one after two tough losses, especially the more questionable outcome in game two. These two tough scenarios led to one of the more telling moments of truth that any playoff series has to offer. A team that goes home for game three after losing the opening two road games faces what I call the Self Respect Game (SRG).

A 2-0 deficit in a series, while unfortunate, does not guarantee anything, but a 3-0 deficit would so that makes this game three pivotal. Teams with even the slightest degree of self-respect will use their home crowd, smell their opponent’s slight scent of complacency, and rally together for a win to make the series much more interesting. Teams that lack that self-respect will fold under the pressure of a 2-0 deficit and suffer what is basically the nail in the coffin. Until an NBA team overcomes a 3-0 hole, I’ll consider a series over when the underdog fails to win the all-important Self Respect Game. Only 5.7% of teams down 2-0 have ever rallied back to win the series, but both OKC and Boston made giant leaps toward possibly raising this abysmal statistic by winning their SRGs. Both are still alive and have a fighting chance but my question for today is which team has the better chance to stay alive?

By strict basketball analysis, the Spurs are the best team in the NBA by far. Their stars have fought off age and continued to dominate, especially offensively. In addition to this they have considerable depth through their role players that make the team much younger than most people would expect. Believe it or not, other than the Thunder, the Spurs are actually the youngest team left standing right now. So this is not your typical closing window conversation, the Spurs have plenty left in the tank. For these reasons and more, the Thunder have a lot on their plate. However, they may have the talent to somehow take care of it. I actually believe that the Thunder are the better team in this series, and that their struggles can be explained by their playoff path.

OKC’s first two opponents were the Mavericks and Lakers, who both have very stagnant offenses. Durant and company spent entire games watching Kobe drain shot clocks and waiting for Dirk to shoot a fade-away jumper. They then suffered a shock to their system when they ran into the fastest team in the league and make no mistake, the Spurs are the fastest team in the league. Do not be fooled by the flashiness and athleticism of the Heat offense because as fast as Lebron and Wade are, nothing moves faster on the court than the ball. The quickness and decisiveness of the Spurs’ passing is unlike anything I have seen in the NBA, trust me these guys are a less sexy Showtime Lakers. Once OKC’s heads caught up with what was actually going on, their talent took over and they blew the Spurs out in game three. The only reason I do not think they can come back to win the entire series is because a team led by Greg Popovich, Tony Parker and Tim Duncan will not blow a series in which they had a two game lead. Other than the strength of their intangibles, however, I honestly think the Thunder would have taken the best of seven games.

The Eastern Conference Finals, despite similar numbers, tell a very different story. The Miami Heat are more heavily favored than the Spurs are, and it shows when you look at the night and day differences between these two teams. I admit, my negativity and personal dislike for the Heat creates a hopeless attitude that suggests no one can beat them, but even from a neutral perspective I cannot see the Celtics pulling this one off. My belief does take a hit when you consider the fact that under fair officiating, the Celtics should actually have a 2-1 series lead right now, but what transpired late in games two and three serve as my conclusion on this debate. Yes, the Cs got robbed in overtime, but the fact that they blew their third quarter lead showed that while they have both lingering talent from Garnett/Pierce and a whopping mismatch at point guard with the magnificent Rajan Rondo, they simply cannot outlast Miami for four quarters. They almost blew a monumental 24 point lead in the fourth quarter alone Friday night. In game two, Wade took an entire first half off, Rondo dropped 44, and the Heat won. Bad calls or not, that tells me all I need to hear.

I am afraid that game three was a classic case of my Self Respect Game concept. Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett are two of the greatest competitors I have ever seen; their drive with Rondo’s excellence made game three the one to win. Whether it is because I am pessimistic or because I am right, I fear that game may be the only one they do win. When you look at Miami’s few weaknesses, the Celtics do not have what it takes to exploit them. Sub-par rebounding and a terrible bench, I will let you guess which team I am referring to there because even I do not know. The Heat can be had somehow, I know that much, but it will take a team that can at least challenge them athletically with a minimum of seven quality players. The Celtics wrote the script that Miami copied with their Avengers Assemble method of building a roster; pulling unfulfilled stars from all corners of the NBA was a concept that started in Boston when the original “Big 3” came together. If the bench steps up again, Lebron and Wade are at least contained, and Bosh does not return, there is a chance for Boston fans and Heat haters everywhere, but those are a few too many necessities for my taste.

If the NBA playoffs were predictable, we would just end them now. Either of these underdogs are capable of defying the odds and advancing to the championship. In my opinion, the Thunder are the much more likely miracle, so much so that I would not even consider their comeback overly miraculous. If the magic word for the Thunder was their talent, the Celtics’ word of the day is their pride. I love that about them and it is necessary for any team aspiring to be champions. However, pride and the intangibles have to be the finishing touch that takes an already capable team over the top. Your ability and potential, as your foundation, ultimately win a series. Pride alone only keeps you from being swept.

D'antoni out, Melo back?

            When I last weighed in on the plight of the New York Knicks, they stood between what was then the low point of their season and the dawn of Linsanity. In the past few weeks, the Knicks have done a complete 360. First, they turned their season around through the emergence of a no-name point guard from Harvard who would commit some turnovers, but was an endless supply of positive plays. After those few games, he regressed and became a guy who would make a few plays, but is an endless supply of turnovers. Now that coach Mike D’antoni has essentially been fired, immediate speculation has ensued regarding the next steps that will be taken by the Knicks and whether or not coaching was really the problem.

            The Knicks faced problems on both sides of the ball, from both a coaches and players perspective. D’antoni abandoned defense and left the responsibility of changing the team’s defensive culture to Tyson Chandler. Chandler has been excellent this season, but turning an entire team around is up to the coach and superstars of the team. The Miami Heat’s supporting cast did not know a thing about defense until Lebron and Wade made the concentrated effort to lead by example. The fate of our defense lies behind the willingness of Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire as leaders. They have the talent and athleticism to become lockdown defenders, which becomes contagious as playing defense becomes both fun and a source of offense at the other end of the floor. I believe that the lack of effort thus far originates from the poor relationship between Melo and former Coach D’antoni, whose system did not suit the ill-fitting superstar from day one. I do insist, however, that acquiring Carmelo was the best thing to happen to this franchise in some time, which is not currently the popular opinion. People attribute the fall of Jeremy Lin to Melo’s return, but I see a different story. Linsanity had a life expectancy and reached it. Melo’s return had terrible timing and he showed up just as the party was ending. Once Lin’s play ceased to amaze fans, they blamed the easy target. I never saw Lin as the point guard of the future but I acknowledge that he has been a pleasant surprise and can be a useful role player in the Knicks’ future. His skill set resembles that of an ideal sixth man and spark plug off the bench, but he is not the championship point guard we have been looking for.

            I stand by Carmelo as the essential piece that can make this team work and I believe that D’antoni’s exit will finally give him his time to shine. Now that the slate is wiped clean, he can show Knicks fans how he intends to play the game and how he plans to make his role on the Knicks beneficial for both himself and the team around him. Linsanity was an exciting week of games that consisted of the Knicks playing energized and uncharacteristic defense against a few bad teams. Once the unstable nucleus itself, Jeremy Lin, stopped functioning at that high level, the wheels fell off of the entire operation and everyone else’s performance plummeted as well. D’antoni got so caught up in this sequence of events because he saw flashes of Steve Nash and had no adjustment ready for when he found out that Jeremy Lin, believe it or not, is not Steve Nash. That is why he is unemployed today, because of his reluctance to reevaluate his system based on the talent that he was given. Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra has no idea what he is doing, but even he was smart enough to recognize the strengths of his two star players and installed what he referred to as an “Oregon football” style offense. The NBA is the only league that involves coaches making adjustments to the style of their players, which is sad but true. This is not the NFL, and if Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire and Tyson Chandler somehow all make their way onto your team, you better figure out how to make that combination work or else the team will hire someone who can.

I last spoke of the lack of depth on the Knicks but that problem has disappeared and we arguably have the deepest team in the NBA with a legitimate nine or ten man rotation. It is amazing how such a convoluted situation could come down to the two remaining problems that we all knew about during the lockout. We still do not play any team defense and we still do not have a legitimate point guard. If Baron Davis elevates his play he can be that guy, but the easier fix is the defensive issue because the pieces are already there. Tyson Chandler is outstanding and is surrounded by capable athletes. In my opinion, defense is a much greater indication of a coach’s ability because defense is the simple combination of athleticism and coaching. When Lebron was in Cleveland he provided the athleticism and Mike Brown was an excellent defensive coach. Offensively, Phil Jackson could not go out there and shoot the ball for Kobe. The most coaches can do on offense is put their guys in the right positions. Defensively, doing that much and establishing those rotations essentially finishes the job. Speaking of Phil Jackson, we are going to go there. Anyone who does not expect the Knicks to at least make a legitimate attempt in his direction is fooling themselves. The number one priority for a Knicks coach is player relations and ego management. I think the guy who kept Jordan on a leash makes a perfect candidate. I refuse to believe the Melo-Amare combination cannot work if we somehow get Jackson because as I kid I saw the most volatile personalities win multiple championships together under his supervision. If Shaq and Kobe were compatible enough to make it work, so are these Knicks.

The players are far from perfect, but in this case the head coach did deserve the lion’s share of the blame. Before Mike D’antoni, defensive indifference was just a baseball term. I insist that Carmelo Anthony is still the right man for this job, but now is his time to prove it. Having a coach that does not accommodate you well is no excuse for the year that he is having, but either way that reasoning is gone now. In the few weeks that remain this season, Melo will be put to the test to determine whether or not firing D’antoni was the best decision for the Knicks present and future. While I believe it was the right move, it is now Melo’s turn to validate my opinion. To be honest, I am sick of hearing from both peers and the talking heads on ESPN that Carmelo Anthony is actually the problem that is preventing the Knicks from reaching their potential. We would not be better off without him, and his time to prove that starts tonight against Portland. I understand that point of view does put a lot of pressure on the struggling superstar, and that the move to fire D’antoni shifts all the attention to whether or not his play now improves. But if there is one thing we know about our main man, it is that he performs the best under that pressure and that if there is a time to shine for Melo, this will be it.