Euro 2012 Preview

This Friday, June 8^th marks the beginning of the biggest event soccer has to offer, outside of the World Cup of course. In fact, from a strictly competitive standpoint, you could even make an argument for this tournament over the World Cup because there is some degree of trimming the fat when countries that qualify from less competitive continents are excluded (sadly, we are a perfect example of this…) There is definitely a strong case to be made for a bracket that limits the contestants to where the world’s best football is played, but South Americans would take offense to that so the awarding of that title can be reserved for another day. Either way, Euro 2012 is a must watch for not just soccer fans, but for sports fans in general. As the Stanley Cup finals and NBA Playoffs come to a close, Euro 2012 will roughly be reaching the knockout rounds. The crowning of the European champions leaves only a short window until the London Summer Olympics. Just like that you have a jam packed summer, and Euro 2012 is right in the middle of it all. The sixteen participating nations will compete in group play prior to the quarterfinals, and the groups are arranged as follows (top two from each group move on):

Group A: 1. Czech Republic 2. Greece 3. Poland 4. Russia

-This group is definitely the competition’s weakest, we may as well refer to this one as the group of life. Not one of these countries made it to the knockout stages of the 2010 World Cup, and I cannot see any of them taking out the winners of the other groups when the time comes. However, there is still potential here and sometimes it can be even more fun to try predicting who will rise above the shadows of mediocrity. Call me crazy, but I think the Greeks make it out of this one. Maybe keeping my handful of Greek family and friends forced my hand on this one, but there is logic to support the outlandish claim. Greece plays defensively to a fault, figuring they will score at some point in at least 90 minutes. This is not a safe assumption by any means in this sport, but the mindset has served them well before, as recently as their Euro championship in 2004. A better team than this one, yes, but a similar style may actually flourish in a group that, as a whole, has underwhelming talent. Secondly, I think Russia has the most legitimate firepower that can carry them past group play. Andrey Arshavin and company are capable of blowing teams out, and may do just that against relatively weak competition.

Group B: 1. Denmark 2. Germany 3. Netherlands 4. Portugal

-In direct contrast to our last set of teams, this is most definitely the group of death. Three nightmarish squads and Denmark, so we can cross one off. Between the remaining three, unfortunately someone has to go. This is Portugal’s second consecutive group of death appearance and they are my odd man out here. As usual, Ronaldo will impress, but the rest of the roster cannot quite compare to Germany and the Netherlands, who I have advancing. If Spain was not basically flawless in 2010, that would have been an excellent championship game two years ago and I have that game as the best matchup that this opening round has to offer.

Group C: 1. Croatia 2. Ireland 3. Italy 4. Spain

-We know that the debate over Spain will not be whether or not they win this group. Their moment of truth will come much later, and this one is the easiest team to put through to the next round. In terms of the second team, however, I am not ready to give Italy a pass for slowly regressing every two years since their World Cup championship in 2006. I think that one of the bigger surprises will be Italy’s failure to impress and the only thing left up to chance here is whether or not one of the two remaining nations are enough to hurdle them, which I am not fully convinced of. Italy still has plenty of ability, but my faith in them has all but run out. My heart and heritage tell me to pick Ireland, and each day I grow more tempted, but Croatia is simply better and more likely to expose Italy’s flaws. I cannot let an impulse win on this one; the Ireland sweatshirt is coming out but I know better than to promise anything. If either team is good enough to disappoint Italy, I say Croatia moves on.

Group D: 1. England 2. France 3. Sweden 4. Ukraine

-Unlike Italy, I feel like France’s monumental disappointment at the 2010 World Cup will be avenged. If their team even somewhat has their act together, they will emerge as the best from this last group. Ukraine should be a non-factor. England scares me, they will be without my man Wayne Rooney for their crucial game against Sweden, which I think will determine the second team to move on. Despite his temporary absence and the loss of midfielder Frank Lampard to injury, I think the English find a way to piece things together. Joe Hart is a colossal improvement to the goalkeeping they received two years ago; that alone may make the crucial difference that pushes them into the next round. Despite the challenge that the man-beast Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Sweden will present, I say England gets it done this time around.

Just to recap, I have Russia, Greece, Germany, Netherlands, Spain, Croatia, France, and England advancing. In terms of the big picture, I won’t get too ahead of myself because for all I know half of these guys won’t actually make it after all. However, my favorites going into the tournament as a whole are Germany and the Netherlands. For Spain, who ranks closely behind these two in my opinion, Fernando Torres’ play has been improving lately but I doubt he will bring the level of production that Spain became spoiled by from David Villa, who will miss Euro 2012 due to a broken leg he suffered in one of Barcelona’s club matches at the tail end of last year. Torres is a threat, but he hardly does the world’s best midfield, defense and goalie any justice. Despite all this talent, Spain may simply struggle to put the ball in the back of the net when they need it most. Hard to consider these true sleepers, but I think that France and England could get on a roll and pose a legitimate threat to these three powerhouses. France has a strong statement to make and if England can win without Rooney, they can do a lot of damage once they have him back.

Somehow, Euro 2012 stands among the highest of high points that this summer of sports has to look forward to. I will check back in to go over what went down during group play and what we will have to be excited about throughout the knockout stages but until then, enjoy the beautiful game and all that Euro 2012 has to offer.