NHL's Kings Take the Cup

The Los Angeles Kings, with their impressive 6-1 game six victory over the New Jersey Devils, finished one of the most dominant and unlikely Stanley Cup playoff runs in NHL history. The Kings went up 3-0 in each and every round, which is certainly a comfortable way to progress through the post-season. This made finishing off each opponent only a matter of time. Now that the Cup has been officially captured, the NHL and its fans get to absorb the full reality of a Los Angeles Kings championship. Regardless of how many years you have been watching hockey, that has to sounds strange. Even their fans this year had to be pretty surprised as the Kings dominated the first, second, and third seeds of the western conference with a combined record of 12-2. Their sudden jump from mediocre to elite came so quickly and with such force that by the time LA was up 3-0 on the Devils, very few people were still so shocked by the NHL’s first 8^th seed champion.

This past year in sports has given even greater significance to the concept of just making the playoffs and then getting hot at the right time. The New York Giants gave up more points than they scored in the 2011 regular season and had the league’s 25^th ranked defense. What could have been foreboding statistics became an unlikely recipe for Super Bowl champions, all because the Giants tended to their weaknesses and played excellent defense when it mattered most. In a similar fashion, the Kings may be one of the more underwhelming Stanley Cup champions on paper. However, the quality of their run and style of play may have been among the greatest to ever hoist the cup.

A large part of the Kings 2011-12 story can be told by the numbers. The biggest star to emerge from this year’s NHL playoffs was LA goalie Jonathan Quick. While he has only recently become a household name, his level of excellence is nothing new to LA fans. Quick’s 1.95 goals against average was the best in hockey, and the Kings team goals against average of 2.07 ranked second in the NHL. Going into the playoffs, these league leading performances in net made the Kings a very legitimate threat, but their offensive struggles were also well documented. Their 2.29 goals per game ranked second to last in the NHL, making the team as a whole statistically average. Defense may traditionally win championships, but it was going to take a dramatic increase on offense to give Quick enough help to make a serious playoff run. Fortunately for the Kings, their 3 playoff goals per game have made them a considerable threat on offense and their defense has gone from great to incredible with 1.41 playoff goals per game given up. The numerical changes are clear, but that still does not fully explain just how the Kings rose to the NHL throne. After all, the stats are the result of improved play, not the cause.

The Kings owe their change in play to an offensive change in mindset. As a fan of a team that struggles offensively, I know that even the best goalie and defense combo are not enough. At the end of the day, you need to consistently score goals in order to stand a fighting chance. The Kings spent all year failing to create offense because their passing is not intricate or skilled enough to maintain possession of the puck. Towards the end of the regular season, they made the transition to a more aggressive offense. Their use of what soccer would call through-balls, long passes to free up a fast break, is by far the best in the NHL. Instead of a more meticulous offense that involves four or more passes to set up the perfect shot, they throw the deep ball and utilize their speed. Teams like the Devils go with the more possession-oriented offense because they can and their players are capable of the necessary stick handling. The Kings have reformed themselves into a fast-break machine; their players have the innate ability to find each other from across the ice and make the big play happen.

The mindset carries over to their defensive play as well. As a Rangers fan, I am used to a team that packs down around the net. We leave the point men alone and blocked shots keep the puck out of the net. The weakness in this system is never possessing the puck and it seems like entire games are played in our defensive zone. The Kings defense is as aggressive as their offense. Their centers and wingers fly around the perimeter with a sense of urgency to dispossess their opponents of the puck as quickly as possible. This often leads to interceptions around the blue line, which is a nice compliment to a fast break offense. That sense of urgency is the defining aspect of a Los Angeles Kings game and it overwhelmed every opponent they faced in the playoffs.

The Kings may not have been the most talented team in hockey, but they proved to be the best team by far. They knew their strengths and utilized them to create a system that no opponent could survive. It took the Eastern Conference Champions to just win two games. The decisive game six was a fitting end to their historic playoff run, because it symbolized everything that made them great. They worked harder, played great defense and seized every opportunity they earned. They won the games in which they were the better team (an underrated ability) and in the first two Stanley Cup games, they proved they could even win when they were outplayed. They beat the number one, two and three western teams and then beat a Devils team that was better than any of them. I enjoyed the beginning of this series as a bitter Rangers fan, and any fan who does not route for a neutral team over one that just beat them is shamelessly lying. However, by the end I also enjoyed this series and appreciated the Kings’ run as a hockey fan privileged enough to see the most impressive NHL playoff performance I have ever seen.

Euro 2012 Preview

This Friday, June 8^th marks the beginning of the biggest event soccer has to offer, outside of the World Cup of course. In fact, from a strictly competitive standpoint, you could even make an argument for this tournament over the World Cup because there is some degree of trimming the fat when countries that qualify from less competitive continents are excluded (sadly, we are a perfect example of this…) There is definitely a strong case to be made for a bracket that limits the contestants to where the world’s best football is played, but South Americans would take offense to that so the awarding of that title can be reserved for another day. Either way, Euro 2012 is a must watch for not just soccer fans, but for sports fans in general. As the Stanley Cup finals and NBA Playoffs come to a close, Euro 2012 will roughly be reaching the knockout rounds. The crowning of the European champions leaves only a short window until the London Summer Olympics. Just like that you have a jam packed summer, and Euro 2012 is right in the middle of it all. The sixteen participating nations will compete in group play prior to the quarterfinals, and the groups are arranged as follows (top two from each group move on):

Group A: 1. Czech Republic 2. Greece 3. Poland 4. Russia

-This group is definitely the competition’s weakest, we may as well refer to this one as the group of life. Not one of these countries made it to the knockout stages of the 2010 World Cup, and I cannot see any of them taking out the winners of the other groups when the time comes. However, there is still potential here and sometimes it can be even more fun to try predicting who will rise above the shadows of mediocrity. Call me crazy, but I think the Greeks make it out of this one. Maybe keeping my handful of Greek family and friends forced my hand on this one, but there is logic to support the outlandish claim. Greece plays defensively to a fault, figuring they will score at some point in at least 90 minutes. This is not a safe assumption by any means in this sport, but the mindset has served them well before, as recently as their Euro championship in 2004. A better team than this one, yes, but a similar style may actually flourish in a group that, as a whole, has underwhelming talent. Secondly, I think Russia has the most legitimate firepower that can carry them past group play. Andrey Arshavin and company are capable of blowing teams out, and may do just that against relatively weak competition.

Group B: 1. Denmark 2. Germany 3. Netherlands 4. Portugal

-In direct contrast to our last set of teams, this is most definitely the group of death. Three nightmarish squads and Denmark, so we can cross one off. Between the remaining three, unfortunately someone has to go. This is Portugal’s second consecutive group of death appearance and they are my odd man out here. As usual, Ronaldo will impress, but the rest of the roster cannot quite compare to Germany and the Netherlands, who I have advancing. If Spain was not basically flawless in 2010, that would have been an excellent championship game two years ago and I have that game as the best matchup that this opening round has to offer.

Group C: 1. Croatia 2. Ireland 3. Italy 4. Spain

-We know that the debate over Spain will not be whether or not they win this group. Their moment of truth will come much later, and this one is the easiest team to put through to the next round. In terms of the second team, however, I am not ready to give Italy a pass for slowly regressing every two years since their World Cup championship in 2006. I think that one of the bigger surprises will be Italy’s failure to impress and the only thing left up to chance here is whether or not one of the two remaining nations are enough to hurdle them, which I am not fully convinced of. Italy still has plenty of ability, but my faith in them has all but run out. My heart and heritage tell me to pick Ireland, and each day I grow more tempted, but Croatia is simply better and more likely to expose Italy’s flaws. I cannot let an impulse win on this one; the Ireland sweatshirt is coming out but I know better than to promise anything. If either team is good enough to disappoint Italy, I say Croatia moves on.

Group D: 1. England 2. France 3. Sweden 4. Ukraine

-Unlike Italy, I feel like France’s monumental disappointment at the 2010 World Cup will be avenged. If their team even somewhat has their act together, they will emerge as the best from this last group. Ukraine should be a non-factor. England scares me, they will be without my man Wayne Rooney for their crucial game against Sweden, which I think will determine the second team to move on. Despite his temporary absence and the loss of midfielder Frank Lampard to injury, I think the English find a way to piece things together. Joe Hart is a colossal improvement to the goalkeeping they received two years ago; that alone may make the crucial difference that pushes them into the next round. Despite the challenge that the man-beast Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Sweden will present, I say England gets it done this time around.

Just to recap, I have Russia, Greece, Germany, Netherlands, Spain, Croatia, France, and England advancing. In terms of the big picture, I won’t get too ahead of myself because for all I know half of these guys won’t actually make it after all. However, my favorites going into the tournament as a whole are Germany and the Netherlands. For Spain, who ranks closely behind these two in my opinion, Fernando Torres’ play has been improving lately but I doubt he will bring the level of production that Spain became spoiled by from David Villa, who will miss Euro 2012 due to a broken leg he suffered in one of Barcelona’s club matches at the tail end of last year. Torres is a threat, but he hardly does the world’s best midfield, defense and goalie any justice. Despite all this talent, Spain may simply struggle to put the ball in the back of the net when they need it most. Hard to consider these true sleepers, but I think that France and England could get on a roll and pose a legitimate threat to these three powerhouses. France has a strong statement to make and if England can win without Rooney, they can do a lot of damage once they have him back.

Somehow, Euro 2012 stands among the highest of high points that this summer of sports has to look forward to. I will check back in to go over what went down during group play and what we will have to be excited about throughout the knockout stages but until then, enjoy the beautiful game and all that Euro 2012 has to offer.

So You're Saying There's A Chance: The NBA SRG

You could argue that both NBA Conference Finals series began predictably, with arguably the NBA’s two most dominant teams taking care of business at home. In the West, the Spurs continued to execute their offense to perfection and extended their winning streak to an incredible twenty games. In the East, the Heat used their overwhelming, top-heavy offense and suffocating defense against a Celtics team that had previously found the fountain of youth during this playoff run. Boston was seemingly sent back to square one after two tough losses, especially the more questionable outcome in game two. These two tough scenarios led to one of the more telling moments of truth that any playoff series has to offer. A team that goes home for game three after losing the opening two road games faces what I call the Self Respect Game (SRG).

A 2-0 deficit in a series, while unfortunate, does not guarantee anything, but a 3-0 deficit would so that makes this game three pivotal. Teams with even the slightest degree of self-respect will use their home crowd, smell their opponent’s slight scent of complacency, and rally together for a win to make the series much more interesting. Teams that lack that self-respect will fold under the pressure of a 2-0 deficit and suffer what is basically the nail in the coffin. Until an NBA team overcomes a 3-0 hole, I’ll consider a series over when the underdog fails to win the all-important Self Respect Game. Only 5.7% of teams down 2-0 have ever rallied back to win the series, but both OKC and Boston made giant leaps toward possibly raising this abysmal statistic by winning their SRGs. Both are still alive and have a fighting chance but my question for today is which team has the better chance to stay alive?

By strict basketball analysis, the Spurs are the best team in the NBA by far. Their stars have fought off age and continued to dominate, especially offensively. In addition to this they have considerable depth through their role players that make the team much younger than most people would expect. Believe it or not, other than the Thunder, the Spurs are actually the youngest team left standing right now. So this is not your typical closing window conversation, the Spurs have plenty left in the tank. For these reasons and more, the Thunder have a lot on their plate. However, they may have the talent to somehow take care of it. I actually believe that the Thunder are the better team in this series, and that their struggles can be explained by their playoff path.

OKC’s first two opponents were the Mavericks and Lakers, who both have very stagnant offenses. Durant and company spent entire games watching Kobe drain shot clocks and waiting for Dirk to shoot a fade-away jumper. They then suffered a shock to their system when they ran into the fastest team in the league and make no mistake, the Spurs are the fastest team in the league. Do not be fooled by the flashiness and athleticism of the Heat offense because as fast as Lebron and Wade are, nothing moves faster on the court than the ball. The quickness and decisiveness of the Spurs’ passing is unlike anything I have seen in the NBA, trust me these guys are a less sexy Showtime Lakers. Once OKC’s heads caught up with what was actually going on, their talent took over and they blew the Spurs out in game three. The only reason I do not think they can come back to win the entire series is because a team led by Greg Popovich, Tony Parker and Tim Duncan will not blow a series in which they had a two game lead. Other than the strength of their intangibles, however, I honestly think the Thunder would have taken the best of seven games.

The Eastern Conference Finals, despite similar numbers, tell a very different story. The Miami Heat are more heavily favored than the Spurs are, and it shows when you look at the night and day differences between these two teams. I admit, my negativity and personal dislike for the Heat creates a hopeless attitude that suggests no one can beat them, but even from a neutral perspective I cannot see the Celtics pulling this one off. My belief does take a hit when you consider the fact that under fair officiating, the Celtics should actually have a 2-1 series lead right now, but what transpired late in games two and three serve as my conclusion on this debate. Yes, the Cs got robbed in overtime, but the fact that they blew their third quarter lead showed that while they have both lingering talent from Garnett/Pierce and a whopping mismatch at point guard with the magnificent Rajan Rondo, they simply cannot outlast Miami for four quarters. They almost blew a monumental 24 point lead in the fourth quarter alone Friday night. In game two, Wade took an entire first half off, Rondo dropped 44, and the Heat won. Bad calls or not, that tells me all I need to hear.

I am afraid that game three was a classic case of my Self Respect Game concept. Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett are two of the greatest competitors I have ever seen; their drive with Rondo’s excellence made game three the one to win. Whether it is because I am pessimistic or because I am right, I fear that game may be the only one they do win. When you look at Miami’s few weaknesses, the Celtics do not have what it takes to exploit them. Sub-par rebounding and a terrible bench, I will let you guess which team I am referring to there because even I do not know. The Heat can be had somehow, I know that much, but it will take a team that can at least challenge them athletically with a minimum of seven quality players. The Celtics wrote the script that Miami copied with their Avengers Assemble method of building a roster; pulling unfulfilled stars from all corners of the NBA was a concept that started in Boston when the original “Big 3” came together. If the bench steps up again, Lebron and Wade are at least contained, and Bosh does not return, there is a chance for Boston fans and Heat haters everywhere, but those are a few too many necessities for my taste.

If the NBA playoffs were predictable, we would just end them now. Either of these underdogs are capable of defying the odds and advancing to the championship. In my opinion, the Thunder are the much more likely miracle, so much so that I would not even consider their comeback overly miraculous. If the magic word for the Thunder was their talent, the Celtics’ word of the day is their pride. I love that about them and it is necessary for any team aspiring to be champions. However, pride and the intangibles have to be the finishing touch that takes an already capable team over the top. Your ability and potential, as your foundation, ultimately win a series. Pride alone only keeps you from being swept.

D'antoni out, Melo back?

            When I last weighed in on the plight of the New York Knicks, they stood between what was then the low point of their season and the dawn of Linsanity. In the past few weeks, the Knicks have done a complete 360. First, they turned their season around through the emergence of a no-name point guard from Harvard who would commit some turnovers, but was an endless supply of positive plays. After those few games, he regressed and became a guy who would make a few plays, but is an endless supply of turnovers. Now that coach Mike D’antoni has essentially been fired, immediate speculation has ensued regarding the next steps that will be taken by the Knicks and whether or not coaching was really the problem.

            The Knicks faced problems on both sides of the ball, from both a coaches and players perspective. D’antoni abandoned defense and left the responsibility of changing the team’s defensive culture to Tyson Chandler. Chandler has been excellent this season, but turning an entire team around is up to the coach and superstars of the team. The Miami Heat’s supporting cast did not know a thing about defense until Lebron and Wade made the concentrated effort to lead by example. The fate of our defense lies behind the willingness of Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire as leaders. They have the talent and athleticism to become lockdown defenders, which becomes contagious as playing defense becomes both fun and a source of offense at the other end of the floor. I believe that the lack of effort thus far originates from the poor relationship between Melo and former Coach D’antoni, whose system did not suit the ill-fitting superstar from day one. I do insist, however, that acquiring Carmelo was the best thing to happen to this franchise in some time, which is not currently the popular opinion. People attribute the fall of Jeremy Lin to Melo’s return, but I see a different story. Linsanity had a life expectancy and reached it. Melo’s return had terrible timing and he showed up just as the party was ending. Once Lin’s play ceased to amaze fans, they blamed the easy target. I never saw Lin as the point guard of the future but I acknowledge that he has been a pleasant surprise and can be a useful role player in the Knicks’ future. His skill set resembles that of an ideal sixth man and spark plug off the bench, but he is not the championship point guard we have been looking for.

            I stand by Carmelo as the essential piece that can make this team work and I believe that D’antoni’s exit will finally give him his time to shine. Now that the slate is wiped clean, he can show Knicks fans how he intends to play the game and how he plans to make his role on the Knicks beneficial for both himself and the team around him. Linsanity was an exciting week of games that consisted of the Knicks playing energized and uncharacteristic defense against a few bad teams. Once the unstable nucleus itself, Jeremy Lin, stopped functioning at that high level, the wheels fell off of the entire operation and everyone else’s performance plummeted as well. D’antoni got so caught up in this sequence of events because he saw flashes of Steve Nash and had no adjustment ready for when he found out that Jeremy Lin, believe it or not, is not Steve Nash. That is why he is unemployed today, because of his reluctance to reevaluate his system based on the talent that he was given. Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra has no idea what he is doing, but even he was smart enough to recognize the strengths of his two star players and installed what he referred to as an “Oregon football” style offense. The NBA is the only league that involves coaches making adjustments to the style of their players, which is sad but true. This is not the NFL, and if Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire and Tyson Chandler somehow all make their way onto your team, you better figure out how to make that combination work or else the team will hire someone who can.

I last spoke of the lack of depth on the Knicks but that problem has disappeared and we arguably have the deepest team in the NBA with a legitimate nine or ten man rotation. It is amazing how such a convoluted situation could come down to the two remaining problems that we all knew about during the lockout. We still do not play any team defense and we still do not have a legitimate point guard. If Baron Davis elevates his play he can be that guy, but the easier fix is the defensive issue because the pieces are already there. Tyson Chandler is outstanding and is surrounded by capable athletes. In my opinion, defense is a much greater indication of a coach’s ability because defense is the simple combination of athleticism and coaching. When Lebron was in Cleveland he provided the athleticism and Mike Brown was an excellent defensive coach. Offensively, Phil Jackson could not go out there and shoot the ball for Kobe. The most coaches can do on offense is put their guys in the right positions. Defensively, doing that much and establishing those rotations essentially finishes the job. Speaking of Phil Jackson, we are going to go there. Anyone who does not expect the Knicks to at least make a legitimate attempt in his direction is fooling themselves. The number one priority for a Knicks coach is player relations and ego management. I think the guy who kept Jordan on a leash makes a perfect candidate. I refuse to believe the Melo-Amare combination cannot work if we somehow get Jackson because as I kid I saw the most volatile personalities win multiple championships together under his supervision. If Shaq and Kobe were compatible enough to make it work, so are these Knicks.

The players are far from perfect, but in this case the head coach did deserve the lion’s share of the blame. Before Mike D’antoni, defensive indifference was just a baseball term. I insist that Carmelo Anthony is still the right man for this job, but now is his time to prove it. Having a coach that does not accommodate you well is no excuse for the year that he is having, but either way that reasoning is gone now. In the few weeks that remain this season, Melo will be put to the test to determine whether or not firing D’antoni was the best decision for the Knicks present and future. While I believe it was the right move, it is now Melo’s turn to validate my opinion. To be honest, I am sick of hearing from both peers and the talking heads on ESPN that Carmelo Anthony is actually the problem that is preventing the Knicks from reaching their potential. We would not be better off without him, and his time to prove that starts tonight against Portland. I understand that point of view does put a lot of pressure on the struggling superstar, and that the move to fire D’antoni shifts all the attention to whether or not his play now improves. But if there is one thing we know about our main man, it is that he performs the best under that pressure and that if there is a time to shine for Melo, this will be it.

Peyton's Decision

As the dust settles on the most important decision the Indianapolis Colts have made since drafting Peyton Manning, their legendary quarterback is faced with the most important audible of his career. Before taking a look at a few of his suitors, what should first be debated is whether or not the Colts even made the right decision by letting go of the best thing that ever happened to their franchise. Accepting that the franchise has entered a rebuilding era is a harsh reality to face, but in this case I believe it was a necessary evil. Manning would be owed $28 million if the Colts decided to keep him and honor his contract, which is a huge risk to take as a team that has many holes to fill. While I am sure he is still a great quarterback, the risk associated with his recent neck surgeries and the promising career of likely draft pick Andrew Luck provide the a good opportunity, if there is such a thing, to part ways with Peyton. This move was a necessary evil that will ultimately give the Colts some salary cap space to move on and, ideally, rebuild the franchise to championship form with a guy who has been touted as the next John Elway. The next destination for Peyton is an unsure one, but there are plenty of teams interested that provide different degrees of potential success. Counting down through the presumed final four candidates, and acknowledging some honorable mentions, we may not find where Manning will go, but we will see where he should go.

4. Washington Redskins: The Redskins always seem to be in the race for the biggest names, many of which end up being washed up and ineffective. If Peyton end up in Washington I would immediately fear that Manning has seen the last of his MVP days. I have them as the least desirable destination solely because the organization is a notoriously weak one. The talent is not terrible, but it is not good enough to make up for the mess that typically takes place in D.C. on a weekly basis. The defense is resilient and they have a few decent weapons on offense, but the mediocre talent level combined with head coach Mike Shanahan’s tendency to butt heads with some of his players is enough to discourage just about any prominent free agent. I have to imagine that, of the four highly rumored teams, this is a distant fourth to the remaining three.

3. New York Jets: This move would solve what seems to be the Jets’ biggest weakness right now. Mark Sanchez has continued to defy expectations, and not in a good way. After early success in his career, it has become clear that his resume is much greater than what he actually brings to the table. A few recent articles suggest that this move would actually hurt the Jets’ future. There is a slight degree of truth to this statement considering Sanchez will not likely stick around if they acquire Manning and the Jets will only have a few years of Peyton at the most. In a worst case scenario, he may become another Brett Favre and tank the Jets season after eleven games because of injury related problems. Despite the risk, I think that the Jets should do everything in their power to make this move because I argue that the Jets have no promising “future” without Manning. Outside of Revis, Harris and Keller, the Jets have no players that will definitely be good in five years or so. Their offensive line boasts the league’s best center and an elite blindside tackle but continues to allow more pressure as the season progresses. They are composed of skilled veterans like Bart Scott and underachieving young players like Shonn Greene, which suggests that their best bet is to win now. The team seems to be regressing with this roster, yet people worry about their future if they sell out for Manning. From Peyton’s perspective, however, this move makes less sense. It is a more talented roster than a few other options, but an unstable locker room and a boisterous, defensive minded head coach is not a winning combination for a guy like Peyton, who would rather stability an offensive system that is worthy of his presence. I cannot deny the awesomeness of a Manning vs. Manning, New York vs. New York Super Bowl in the Meadowlands in 2014, but I am not convinced that the Jets locker room and coaching staff is capable of making that happen, even with Peyton Manning.

2. Miami Dolphins: It is a tough toss-up between the top two destinations for Manning, and either would be a great fit. Only a few minor differences keep the Dolphins from being an ideal home. Their roster is only a step behind the Jets and, unlike the Jets, seems to actually be heading in the right direction. Reggie Bush seems to finally understand what it takes to be a franchise running back and I believe that Brandon Marshall and company make up the most underrated receiving core in the league. Watch as no name guys like Hartline and Bess become reincarnations of what Garcon and Collie were to Peyton. Their defense plays hard and with a high draft pick they can add another key player. The only thing that keeps the Dolphins from the top spot in this countdown is the inexperience of new head coach Joe Philbin. If Manning wanted an unproven head coach, he would miss Jim Caldwell considerably more than I am sure he does. The Dolphins have all of the pieces around him and a pretty desperate need for a QB, but even the smallest speed bump would derail a team’s chances when competing with the ideal home for Peyton Manning.

1. Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals have every good and attractive element that the Dolphins have, with some additional benefits. For one thing, Ken Whisenhunt is a proven head coach and offensive genius who has already taken an aging veteran quarterback to a Super Bowl with his new team. Kurt Warner ended the drought in Arizona, making the team relevant again. Peyton Manning has an opportunity to do the same and then some in a stadium with great weather and a retractable roof on the off chance that it rains, which Miami cannot provide. In addition to this, Larry Fitzgerald could reclaim his spot as one of the league’s best receivers, a title that Kevin Kolb has endangered. The Cardinals, if you ask me, can ride their late season momentum into next season, winning seven of their last nine game and defeated both the 49ers and Cowboys in tightly contested battles. The exclamation point of the Arizona appeal is the escape from excessive hype that pollutes both New York and Miami sports. While the Dolphins are a slight favorite for most analysts, Peyton does not strike me as one to take his talents to south beach.

Honorable mentions: If a team like the 49ers or Texans decide to sign Manning despite the fact that they both have good but not great quarterbacks, they basically guarantee a Super Bowl appearance. In my opinion, they are the two teams that can become the best teams in the league with the unnecessary but potentially monumental decision to add an elite quarterback. The Seahawks and Broncos can make some noise but I do not believe that either are talented enough to elevate themselves over some pretty tempting options. The fact that less than about 25 teams are seriously considering this move is just sad because Peyton Manning is one of the few players that immediately makes a bad team into a good team, a good team into a playoff team, and a playoff team into a champion.

Why are we still terrible?

As Saturday night’s NFL blowout reached halftime, I decided to check in on my Knicks to see if we were putting up any fight against the Thunder in Oklahoma City. Facing arguably the NBA’s best team without star Carmelo Anthony is certainly a losing battle, but there were moral victories to be had and hey, you never know. Upon tuning in to MSG, I was met with the horror that inspired this article. You know it’s bad when Brady’s beatdown on Tebow was the best thing on TV at that time. The first thing I saw, naturally, was an 89-59 deficit in the third quarter. I immediately reasoned out how this was possible. Both our offense and defense have been struggling and we are without our best player. However, the next layer of disgust really put my emotions over the edge. The jersey numbers of our five men at that moment were 17, 16, 32, 9, and 44. Casual basketball fans would not likely guess who any of these guys are on a quiz, and I would estimate that religious Knicks fans would get about two correct. In order, the players representing the Knicks at that given moment in time were Jeremy Lin, Steve Novak, Ronaldo Balkman, Jared Jeffries, and Jerome Jordan. It is somewhat common to give the substitute players a few minutes in the fourth quarter during a blowout (winning or losing), but this was not far past halftime. This was not an example of taking a knee to mercifully end a game; these are guys that actually get minutes. These are possible rotation guys, and that’s scary. That lineup makes Bill Walker and Josh Harrellson look like Carmelo and Amare. For reasons we will dive into, the fact that the Knicks are currently 6-6 is unfortunately great news.

The Knicks are traditionally terrible on defense, but it seemed that the addition of Tyson chandler would make them two things: willing and capable of playing defense. The basics are necessary before you become a great, or even a good defensive team. They have shown that they may be both of these, but their idea of defense is sadly contrary to what we immediately think of. They foul people early and often, which is not exactly good defense. The Knicks are 15^th in opposing points per game, which is not that bad, and places us right in the middle. For a team that is accustomed to bad, mediocrity is a gift. Chandler plays hard and is a quality anchor, but we have yet to see that attitude become contagious. Once Dallas caught this disease they almost immediately won a championship, so it is something to look forward to. The still struggling defense might just be an issue of cohesiveness. This is their only issue that I believe can fix itself over time. Until then, what little defense they play has been a display of “hacking and whacking”, as Clyde would say. The problem is that one or both of our star players are benched within six to ten minutes of play because he picked up two quick fouls. These early losses contribute to the Knicks’ offensive struggles at the other end of the floor, which are even more troubling.

While it still takes criticism, the Knicks have a defense that is serviceable and can win many games with the offense that they traditionally bring on a consistent basis. The problem is that while the defense has taken one small step forward, the offense has regressed one giant leap. The foul trouble mentioned earlier does not help but is not the leading cause of death for D’antoni’s system. What made him a good coach in Phoenix was one man, Steve Nash, the point guard. Having weapons for him was nice, but he was what made it work. The Knicks now have just about everything but that one essential element. Not having a franchise guy like Chris Paul or even serviceable point guard like Raymond Felton last year has led to absolutely no ball movement and a series of one on one possessions. Even our top heavy talent cannot overcome that. Toney Douglas was the first starter but made quick work out of losing his job. He now acts as a sparkplug off the bench who has lost his shooting touch (a bold combination). Both he and Landry Fields have been turnover machines at mass production. One saving grace has been Iman Shumpert, the rookie we picked too early who seems to actually be a good idea so far. He hustles more than anyone else on the team, plays the second best defense to Chandler and is surprisingly an efficient scorer. So how did coach D’antoni screw this one up? He made him the next franchise point guard, which is clearly not his role. Granted, I may not have the better option, but I would rather identify every good player we have, keep him in his role, and experiment with the remaining slots. Let Bibby and Douglas fight over the point guard role until Baron Davis takes it from both of them. I like to think he is the long term answer for this season, but only time will tell.

Attacking a couple of individuals identifies the Knicks’ problems just as well as the teamwork related issues. First victim is Amare Stoudemire; I am both a fan and fantasy owner of the man they call “Stat”, so his struggles are well documented with me. Most fans or analysts would draw his problems since the Melo trade back to his injury problems, but they should know better. Here’s a guy who has not been healthy since High School and basically plays with one eye. Despite all this he was a strong MVP candidate up until we acquired Carmelo Anthony. I cannot tell whether his problem is with the dual superstar wielding system, or the fact that he has not had a decent point guard feeding him the ball since that trade went down. He is not a selfish player or person, so I lean towards the absence of a point guard. For this reason, he has to get over it, accept that receiving the league’s best scorer was worth getting rid of a few decent players and start creating his own opportunities. He has as good a skill set as any big man in the NBA; very few power forwards are as capable of creating their own shots. Once Davis returns, he will hopefully be reintroduced to quality passing, but until then he needs to fine tune his own game.

The second target is Mike D’antoni, a guy I do not usually pick on because more than any other coach in sports, I feel his pain. He gets more visibly frustrated on the sidelines and I completely understand it. When Carmelo walking off the court for either a breather or foul trouble basically means you can no longer play well, a coach feels helpless. However, while I sympathize with his reactions, he is only doing half of his job. He identifies their problems, which is no more than what fans do, and then he fails to do anything about it. They have lost consecutive games to terrible teams, which coaches should not let happen. They have flirted with 30 point losses in consecutive games, another coaching sin. He may not have the easiest job in the world, from their embarrassing lack of depth to the high expectations, but he has to at least keep this team focused enough to win the games that they should win against teams that they should beat. My realistic expectations as a Knicks fan require that we beat bad teams and simply show up and play respectable basketball against good teams. We are not a championship roster yet, but we have to start showing signs that we are even close.

Playoffs?!

The NCAA football bowl season has been exciting, but in my personal opinion, the main purpose of these glorified exhibition games is to maintain my appreciation for our NFL playoffs. Using a conventional post-season format where a playoff tournament determines the league’s champion is something that the average sports fan takes for granted. Before we get too into a conversation for another day, the events most deserving of our attention in the world of sports are the NFL playoffs that begin next weekend. Our first set of matchups includes Bengals at Texans, Lions at Saints, Steelers at Broncos, and Falcons at Giants. Each individual game contains unique elements and dynamics that will set the stage for the remaining playoff rounds. Any given Sunday might be the most insightful three words in sports, and of course anything can happen, but a projected path through the NFL playoffs can’t hurt our chances of guessing how things play out.

The first game taking place on Saturday includes a tale of two surprises. The Texans were projected to be talented as always, but few singled this year out as the turning point season, where they would finally get over the hump and into the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. This history, however, did not come without a price. Mario Williams, Matt Schaub, his backup Matt Leinart and at least a part of Andre Johnson have been lost for nearly the entire season. With all due respect to T.J. Yates, who has done a solid job at keeping Houston afloat, the Texans are clearly vulnerable as they become introduced to post-season play. The Bengals, on the other hand, surprised just about everyone with their success. Rookies Andy Dalton and A.J. Green built on top of the strong foundation laid down by a good defense and running game. During the pre-season, analysts discussed the probability of Cincinnati having the worst offense in football, which was quickly put to rest. What makes the Bengals a questionable playoff team is their record this year against teams that eventually made the playoffs, which is 0-7. They have beaten one winning team this year (9-7 Titans) and built their good record by beating up on the teams they should have beaten. Despite these statistics and the fact that they will be playing on the road, I believe that the Bengals will get their first quality victory at the most essential time. The Texans simply suffered too many injuries that took a championship caliber roster and reduced it to a first round departure.

When Saturday night comes around we will witness what should be an absolute assault unless the Detroit Lions manage to outscore the Pistons that night. If nothing else, this game will be a highlight reel with more exciting plays than we will see in any other first round matchup. The Detroit Lions began this season on fire but abruptly cooled down and settled for the last playoff seed. Fortunately for them, the Packers were not going to let them in as anything but a wildcard anyway so if they return to the early-season Lions, they have not lost much in the grand scheme of things and can beat anyone. The Saints just missed out on a bye week and have not changed much from the Super Bowl days, except for a noticeable step backwards on the defensive side of the ball. Neither defense is stellar, but Detroit’s is absolutely terrible and Drew Brees knows how to make any coverage look bad. Matt Stafford and company are one of the few offenses that can actually keep pace with New Orleans, but they are much more likely to make costly mistakes that will allow the Saints to pull away as the game develops. Both teams will light up the scoreboard, but once the Lions start giving the ball away and committing foolish penalties, the Saints will not look back. Then again, the Saints were even more of a lock for last year’s opening playoff game and were devoured by beast mode, but I have faith in Drew Brees for what should be a decisive win.

The other NFC showdown is a tough one to look at because of the nature of one of the participants. The Atlanta Falcons infiltrate the Meadowlands to take on the New York Giants, whose fans must be comparing this team to the one that won a most improbable and incredible championship not so long ago. Their record is underwhelming, but for the past couple of weeks, the pass rush and offensive production are so similar to that of the miracle Giants of the 2007 season. While Eli’s career year and the team’s overall play recently is tough to argue, I will try because I expect a narrow Falcons victory here. The reasoning behind my lack of faith in the Giants lies behind the analysis of these two epic wins. After losing five out of six games, the G-Men defeated the Jets and the Cowboys in consecutive games. Both of these opponents, while good on paper, proved that they were pathetic throughout the crucial end of this regular season. Miami and Philadelphia showed the world that beating these two teams right now is not exactly the most impressive accomplishment. As pessimistic as it is, I think any competent team would have completed the comeback that the Cowboys failed to reach last weekend, which the Giants tried so hard to give away after becoming completely stagnant on offense. I would ride the wave of Big Blue momentum if the Falcons weren’t such a formidable opponent. They define offensive balance and have a defense that is stingy enough to bring out Mr. Hyde from Tom Coughlin’s Dr. Jekyll. This is the week’s toughest call for me because Eli can out-gun Matt Ryan any day and their defensive line is fearsome, but I cannot go against the balance that the Falcons bring as a team. They have no clear weakness unless a team is just too good to beat, which the Giants are not. In the big picture, neither team is at the Super Bowl level, but either team is capable of a monumental upset of one of the top contenders.

Back in the AFC, Tim Tebow awaits his judgment day as a limping giant comes to town. The Broncos have been a curious case this season that ended in a standoff with the Raiders over who wanted to make the playoffs less. The magic of Tebow Time has taken a break and ever since Tom Brady’s flight to Mile High, Denver has been awful. Their offense resembles a bad High School Team and their defense, while talented, cannot carry the team without help. Until Matt Prater can increase his kicking range from 59 yards to about 80, I do not see how Tebow and company can score very many points. While the road ahead for the Broncos is a tough one, their opponent’s flaws and overall misfortune will help them out. The Steelers were dealt serious blows throughout the end of the regular season. Defensive stars Aaron Smith (who I barely consider on the team anymore) and Lamar Woodley have struggled to stay healthy. On top of this, underrated safety Ryan Clark has a rare blood condition that cannot tolerate the air in Denver, so he will likely miss the game as well. On offense, Ben Roethlisberger is still immobile from his ankle injury, Rashard Mendenhall is done for the season with a torn ACL and multiple linemen have gone down, including the excellent center Maurkice Pouncey. This is most problematic for a team that already can’t block anyone. These are by far the two teams that are least prepared for the playoffs and they are both lucky to be facing each other because in my opinion, they would each be a guaranteed loss against other opponents. In a battle of something has to give, I think that my Steelers simply have too much talent and can overwhelm the Broncos on the road. Tim Tebow should not fare well against this year’s number one defense and top rated secondary. Defensively, the Broncos will hold their ground but receivers Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown will make just enough plays to keep things moving. I have the Steelers winning but they cannot win a second playoff game without a healing worthy of the lord and savior’s attention. As a Steelers fan, this reminds me so much of the 2007 team that limped into the playoffs in a similar fashion and lost the Jaguars. Due to the weakness of our opponent, I say the Steelers win a game that becomes irrelevant one week later.

The teams waiting in the wings as spectators are the Packers, Patriots, 49ers, and Ravens. To me the AFC picture is relatively clear. Through personal bias and common sense, I have been anti Joe Flacco for some time, but the team around him and a weakening conference has become too much to deny. If my winners proceed to this round, the Steelers will be limbless and the Bengals will still be somewhat mediocre. Both teams will have advanced due to the weaknesses of their opponents. It is tough to watch the two teams I hate most become the two best teams in the AFC by far. The Patriots can give Baltimore a great game, especially in New England, but they have not won a playoff game since before the one Giant loss, they refuse to play any defense and Tom Brady has quietly been a slow starter lately. He gets heated up as the game goes on and leads impressive comebacks, which Ray Lewis and company will not allow. Flacco can play his way out of the playoffs at any time, but he is hopelessly spoiled by a great defense, running game and offensive line. He deals with next to no adversity throughout the course of a game. People used to hypothetically say that the Pats only needed Brady and head coach Bill Belichick to win. Now that this has become a reality to some degree, New England is finding out that they were sadly mistaken. The Ravens’ only losses this year were to teams that surprised them when they were not mentally ready to play well. Of their four losses, only one was to a barely winning team (9-7 Titans). I mean this all as a compliment, however, because they have gotten up for every big game and play to the ability of their opponents. The playoffs are the only time when playing to your opponents is a good thing, and they should pick apart a relatively weak AFC en route to a Super Bowl appearance.

The NFC road is much more competitive and tough to get through. If I had to pick a horse, I would follow my personal MVP vote and give the Who Dat nation the best chances. I love what the 49ers have done, but Alex smith cannot be hidden anymore when he has to keep up with Brees, Rodgers, Manning, Stafford, and Ryan in his conference playoffs. With one of the league’s best defenses, the 9ers would slow Brees down better than most others, but slowing him down means about 28 points, which I think Smith is not capable of in the post-season. It is tough to not love Green Bay but their defense has been so pitiful that it is also tough to crown them champions. The Saints bring that same offensive firepower, if not more, but also bring a decent defense that will provide slightly more resistance. I said throughout the season that the rest of the league was doomed because the Packers’ defense would wake up; remember how excellent this same group was as recently as last season. While this could still happen, they failed to wake up for 17 weeks so I will not assume that they will all of a sudden show up now. If I have to throw a Super Bowl matchup out there I have the Saints playing the Ravens for the Lombardi trophy in February. Of course the Saints could choke in consecutive wild card rounds or get outscored by Green Bay again; the Ravens could fight another losing playoff battle against the Steelers or watch a signature Brady game winning drive. In the NFL playoffs nothing is predictable. We also don’t have experts vote for champions or leave results to advanced mathematics; we watch the champions go into battle themselves and truly find out who is the best team in football after a brutal grind of a three or four game journey. While we may be surprised, let’s pick our horses now and hope for our favorite teams to rise above and spoil our predictions. As always, the NFL playoffs will be a hell of a ride.