MLB Playoffs: The 2012 Hunt for October

With the MLB playoffs starting tonight, the NFL has ensured that the average sports fan does not care. I have always felt that baseball’s schedule suffers from America’s new favorite pastime, and that a 100 game season ending during the summer would be a much better idea. Considering how baseball is so statistics oriented, my idea would never work because most season and career records would become unbreakable with so few games to play. However, I maintain that avoiding the overlap with the NFL would be a great idea for Major League Baseball. Regardless of this conflict, I am very excited for what may be the most unpredictable MLB playoffs in recent memory.

Is there better way for both Yankees and Red Sox fans to celebrate the beginning of the playoffs than the firing of Bobby Valentine? From our perspective, the man who always has so much to say finally has to eat his words and suffer unemployment. From Boston’s point of view, their nightmare is finally over and the team can get back on its feet next season. Valentine’s experience was a disaster from the start. One of his first statements as manager was to undermine Jeter’s miracle flip play against Oakland in 2001. Bobby V clearly tried too hard to make himself a part of the rivalry, as opposed to easing into it as the season progressed. Despite everything that is wrong with him, I place all of the blame for this season on the Red Sox management who brought this guy in. Do you blame a gun for firing, or the shooter? Valentine is less of a man and more of an object that Boston’s decision makers should have had no affiliation with. They enabled a person who simply is a certain way. Bobby Valentine is a child, and we should not blame him for being put in a situation that needed an adult. Much like signing Chad Johnson, teams bring these consequences on themselves. As for teams still playing, the playoff races were among the best in history this season. I am personally against the new rule that installed a one game playoff in each league between two wildcard teams. I do not think it is fair that a baseball team can be eliminated from the playoffs with one loss. However, I cannot deny what this new rule did for the division races. The Yankees developed an entirely new sense of urgency to win the AL East and avoid that one game playoff. Regardless of how I feel about it, the MLB has clearly figured something out with this new format. I still believe that it can be improved though, such as making the wildcard round a best of three series. The Braves are a full six games ahead of the Cardinals, who should not even be in the playoffs, but Atlanta can be eliminated tonight after one game.

I do not think I have ever been so clueless on a given playoff picture. Considering how wrong picks are when things are clear, I can only imagine how this plays out for me. Without overthinking things too much, my gut tells me to look for the Tigers and Giants to meet in the World Series, where the Tigers emerge victorious. They have the Triple Crown winner, enough depth in their lineup around him, and arguably the best ace in baseball on the mound. The Giants have by far the best five man rotation, especially since the Nationals made the horrible decision to shut down Stephen Strasburg. I refuse to pick any team playing in the one game playoffs because there are simply too many variables. The Rangers have been in a tailspin for some time, I still cannot buy into the Orioles as a legitimate championship contender, another magical run for the Cardinals is very unlikely and the Braves just do not seem to have enough to compete with elite teams.

Among teams that will definitely be in the real playoffs, things get much more confusing. I have been selling Nationals stock because I do not like the attitude they developed during the tough Strasburg decisions. Shutting him down for the season is a move for their future, but what position is a baseball team from Washington in to assume they have a future in the playoffs? Once the Phillies get back on their feet, this team will become irrelevant. I do not want them to be rewarded for a decision that I so fundamentally disagree with, so consider that disqualification personal. This leaves the Reds and Giants as my two National League favorites. I believe the winner of that matchup will move on to the World Series. For me, San Francisco has the slight advantage. Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner were fantastic this season, and just imagine if Tim Lincecum returns to the form we are used to. Losing Melky Cabrera is tough, but Buster Posey and company should be enough to consistently manufacture runs. Their Brian Wilson-less bullpen is a major concern, especially when matched up against Cincinnati’s Aroldis Chapman. This comparative weakness may become a problem, but the closer by committee concept was enough to fend of the Los Angeles Dodgers down the home stretch. I have faith in the Giants rotation, which can be the driving force behind a National League championship run.

In the American league, I have already ruled out Baltimore. They have been very impressive and can win any game that stays close in the late innings. However, I think we will look back at the 2012 Orioles and define them as the team that helped the Yankees prepare for the playoffs. They really have been great for us and have restored a lot of my Yankee playoff faith. Without Boston, someone had to keep us honest, and they did a great job at doing so. The Oakland A’s have been quite a story with such huge contributions from inexperienced players, but I think that may catch up to them against teams heading for a championship. I think the Rangers will move on to the second round but their play in the second half of the season leaves me no reason to believe they will take out the remaining American League powerhouses. I want to take the Yankees and the league’s best lineup, but their pitching is too much of a question mark for me. Beyond CC Sabathia, I trust no one completely. Hiroki Kuroda has been great, but he and CC need to be near perfect in order to make this work. Ivan Nova is capable but relies heavily on run support to win, which is far from granted in the playoffs. Andy Pettitte is a playoff warhorse, but is far from last decade’s Andy Pettitte. I like the Yankees a lot, but not enough to alter my Tigers prediction. Everything seems to be lining up for Detroit after a narrow division win and Miguel Cabrera’s baseball immortality. Their record was by far the worst of the American League playoff teams, but Verlander is the only pitcher on any surviving team who I think may win every single one of his playoff starts. Despite the Yankees’ many weapons, the Tigers have the best one two batting punch with Cabrera and Fielder. These three players are enough to make a championship run, and Detroit’s supporting cast is not so bad either.

In my opinion, baseball is the hardest sport to predict in any one game. As these games string together, you have the Cardinals 2011 championship run. Anything can happen in any sport that isn’t the NBA, but the MLB is a different animal when it comes to parody. ESPN’s JA Adande made one of my favorite arguments of all time on today’s Around the Horn. You have lockouts in nearly every major sport over a variety of issues. However, one ongoing issue has been enforcing salary caps to create more parity between teams. Depending on tonight’s results, more than half of the playoff teams may be in the bottom half of the MLB’s pay roll. Leave it to the sport with no salary cap to be the fairest of them all. For anyone who talks about the Yankees buying rings, mull that one over. Or just look at where the Red Sox and Mets went with all their money. Or look at the Dodgers win percentage before and after spending all that money (.543 before, .471 after). Baseball is a nightmare to predict, but I do like my two World Series teams if I have to put my money on someone.

In my World Series between San Francisco and Detroit, I have the Tigers winning it all. While San Francisco has the better overall pitching of the two, their lineup is not as much of a guaranteed success and may struggle to score runs in the final few games. Cabrera and Fielder will simply never stop hitting, and I cannot pick against a team that gets guaranteed wins from one pitcher. They may not have the best all-around team, but the Tigers have a few essential pieces that can carry this team. If there are any unexpected contributions from role players, Detroit can run away with this post season. I may not like the new wildcard round, but I admit that it does make for great television. Like I hope most of you do as well, I look forward to tonight’s elimination games as the hunt for October begins.

NFL Quarterly Report: Weeks 1-4

Needless to say, the first four weeks of the NFL flew by. The endless wait for football is always met with a blinding rush of big plays, fascinating storylines and, of course, some controversy. Before you know it, we are now heading into week five. The first four games are so significant because we now have a feel for which teams are moving in which direction. We have been presented with just enough of a body of work to make valid points about this season, but there is still so much left of the mystery to unravel in upcoming weeks. For this reason, week five may be my favorite week outside of week one. Today, we are going to recap what we have seen so far and maybe make some points about the future as well.

The unfortunate highlight of this season so far has been the labor dispute between the NFL and their referees. Thankfully, this has been solved, but it did harm a good portion of the NFL season. My opinion on the notorious replacement refs is somewhat atypical because I have hated officials for years. To me, replacements were only going to continue to make the mistakes that the overrated Ed Hochuli and company have been making for years now. For this reason, I was not concerned when I learned that the NFL season would begin without the usual cast of officials. Part of me was right to not worry, but another side was dreadfully wrong. I have grown tired of hearing about the Packers-Seahawks Monday Night Football debacle. The call was clearly wrong and Green Bay got robbed. It was heartwarming to see fans and players turn on Roger Goodell, which I did long ago when he fined James Harrison more than America’s average household income in one season. That much was fun, but seeing these “real refs” serenaded from crowds everywhere upon their return last week was just pathetic and sickening.

After the return of our referees, the Giants almost stole a game from the Eagles after some rough defensive pass interference calls, and the same Green Bay Packers suffered a call that I insist was far worse than the call in Seattle. Darren Sproles fumbled a kickoff return and I swear the refs called him down by contact only because they could not determine who recovered the fumble, which was the Packers by the way. Every referee knows that a close call should always be called a turnover because fumbles and interceptions are automatically reviewed now. If Sproles was down and they called fumble, the Saints do not have to do anything and the play will be overturned. Instead, the Packers get ripped off again. The only reason this did not blow up was 1. The replacements were not there and 2. The game’s outcome was not ultimately changed because of it. We never hear the end of a bad call from a replacement, but when Gene Steratore makes that same call we hear about how hard refereeing is. My point is that the everyday referees make equally egregious errors. Where I was wrong to welcome replacement refs came in the form of procedural errors. Taking forever to spot the ball, mixing up teams or players and not understanding certain penalties are not mistakes you see from the pompous pinstripes that now grace fans with their presence. I may not love them, but at least they keep the game moving. If human error can go back to being our only officiating issue, we can all be at some degree of peace.

Now for the fun stuff from what has been an exciting start to this season. In my last articles, I methodically went on a division by division journey, but for this quarterly report summarizing the first four weeks I would rather jump around between a few standouts. The Jets have to be the worst 2-2 team in history. I cannot fully understand how their offense put such an epic beatdown on Buffalo and then fell off the face of the Earth. This team defines dysfunctional and the season ending injuries to Darrelle Revis and Santonio Holmes can only make things worse for them. On the other hand, they do sit atop the division at this very moment alongside one of the best 2-2 teams in history. The Patriots seem to be getting it together now as their dynamic offense creates turnover opportunities for their otherwise incapable defense. My Steelers will fade fast if they do not get healthy now, and Joe Flacco seems to still be riding the spoiled wave that his excellent team in Baltimore provides for him. My Chiefs prediction is looking just fantastic out west and Peyton’s Broncos seem to have some potential. I do not have enough faith in Denver to win it all, but they are a team that can upset one of the more legitimate contenders at some point. The juggernauts still lie in Baltimore and New England, but they do have their flaws. The Ravens, despite what they may tell you, lack an elite quarterback and the Patriots still do not play much defense. Speaking of flaws, I still cannot seem to find one in Houston. Is there one thing the Texans cannot do? They are efficient through the air, elite on the ground, and play excellent defense. I feel that more elite competition will bring them down to Earth, but until then let us enjoy the most dominant team in football right now.

The NFC is even more interesting to me. You have a completely revamped edition of what was the worst division in NFL history in the NFC West. It is as if the 49ers went around in the offseason teaching everyone how to play defense. The Seahawks bottled up MVP Aaron Rodgers and the Cardinals had Mike Vick drawn and quartered. All of a sudden, every single NFC division has multiple playoff contenders, which is just frightening. Teams like the Saints or Lions must be furious to basically be told by mediocre teams that their playoff chances are dead. With the aforementioned NFC West and teams like the Vikings piling up wins, you simply cannot afford a slow start. Even teams like the Giants or Cowboys at 2-2 are walking a very thin line now. I still believe that Big Blue will figure it out and that the Boys are not going anywhere, but there are many more variables than we expected from the superior conference. The Falcons are the NFC’s Texans and seem to have no flaws whatsoever. It will take a team that is simply better to beat them because they will not beat themselves. The Packers and 49ers are the NFC’s Patriots and Ravens, respectively. For this reason, I have not been sold on either Atlanta or Houston making a championship run. They may be the most complete teams, but you have to be the best in at least one major area to win it all. The Saints are a stunning 0-4, but I still believe they will finish second to the Falcons. The Panthers and Buccaneers both look terrible and, while it may no longer equate to a playoff appearance, look for the Saints to make enough of a surge to take second place in the NFC South. It seems the loss of Sean Payton for the season will be a crushing one, but I always love to see what teams do in the face of such adversity.

In contrast to the overblown replacement referees, there was one tragedy from the regular season’s first quarter that did not get nearly enough attention. Steve Sabol, the legendary president and founder of NFL Films, passed away after a battle with brain cancer dating back to March of 2011. What continues to amaze me is how someone could impact my life so much when, I confess, I did not actually know his name until the news of his death. While I am now among the world’s elite in the department of love for the NFL product, I was a late bloomer in terms of football fanaticism. My first NFL season ended with the electrifying shootout between the Patriots and Panthers in Super Bowl XXXVIII (38). Most fans my age remember Kevin Dyson stretching for the biggest Super Bowl upset that never was as the Rams took down the Titans at the turn of the millennium. For this reason, my love for football came largely from NFL films in a roughly one month viewing of NFL history. I, along with any fan since Sabol’s creation, had the privilege of witnessing the greatest presentation of any material in professional sports. NFL films elevated the sport above all others and, in my opinion, were what solidified football’s spot atop the sports world in America. My understanding of and love for the game may have been enriched through my years of watching live games, but the foundation was built from this revolutionary method of NFL transparency. While we may be without Steve Sabol, his legacy will live on for generations as the NFL films machine lives on. The NFL reigns supreme in the world of entertainment, and they have him to thank for it.