The NFL Eightfold Path: NFC East

Throughout the past two weeks, we have gone on a division by division journey in the hopes of truly understanding how the NFL is set up this season and how each team is looking as week one approaches. We started with the NFC West, where I had the 49ers repeating as division champs without much trouble. We then moved on to the AFC West, where I had the Chiefs surprising Peyton’s Broncos, who still advanced as a wildcard. In the NFC North, the Packers took care of business despite tough competition and the Bears moved on as an NFC wild card. The AFC North saw the Ravens and Steelers limp faster than Bengals could run as both held off their young rivals and made the playoffs. The Texans dominated the AFC South as the remaining three teams failed to reach winning records. The NFC South saw a shift in the balance of power as the Falcons overtook the Saints after Cam Newton had his signature win in week 17. Both New Orleans and Atlanta moved on to the playoffs, which can only mean one thing. The NFC East has traditionally been the best division in football, but last season the Giants won it with only nine wins. This season, the group as a whole will look to improve on last year’s effort, but I only see one moving on to playoff competition. It has become a bold statement to limit this division to one playoff team, but the rest of the NFC has caught up to the East, and these are not the old days when the Giants and company led the NFC’s only great division. With all that said, our NFL Eightfold Path stays home for our final destination as we figure out who wins this thing.

4. Redskins: Robert Griffin III is the X factor here who will almost single handedly guide Washington to wins or losses. I do believe in RG3, but what we are asking of him goes above and beyond where the rest of his team is ready to go. The Redskins did have a competitive defense last season but, with improved offenses around them, I think that will be put to the test. The defense that Washington fans take for granted as they hope for an improved offense may be ripped out from under them despite however many sacks Brian Orakpo can pile up. Mike Shanahan continues to stretch whatever good will his two career rings still hold for him and has helped lead this team straight into the ground with dysfunctional relationships and poor decisions. The Redskins, however, may be a very legitimate last place team in terms of playing spoiler against division rivals. Their last two games are against the Eagles and Cowboys, respectively, and I predict that everyone in New York will be big fans of the Washington Redskins by the time this regular season ends. RG3 will have an important place in this league, but he will not see this playoffs this season.

3. Cowboys: Every season, the Cowboys are somebody’s Super Bowl prediction, and I have no idea why. They have talent, but are not the most talented team. And we all know how well they play from December through the playoffs. For whatever reason, every ESPN talking head wants to be the person who predicts the return of the championship Cowboys. I like this team’s talent as much as anyone, but there is way too much uncertainty to have them in the playoffs in this great conference, let alone any Super Bowl talk. Dez Bryant is a walking red flag, Jason Witten has no spleen, and Romo will likely be as unreliable as ever despite his abilities. Also, I cannot pick a team to win its division when they have had so much trouble beating the two teams ahead of them. Superman is great too but, in a division against Kryptonite Thing 1 and 2, I do not love his chances. The secondary has taken huge strides and this defense will be what Rob Ryan’s squad was supposed to be last season. However, the nature of this team is still susceptible to blown leads and other laughable errors that will prevent them from reaching their full potential. Dallas is not the most talented team in this division and they are also not the most clutch. Those two teams are why I have them finishing third.

2. Eagles: I would have this team winning the division if I had more faith in Mike Vick’s health. With him playing all season, I say this team loses three games and earns themselves a bye week. However, if he loses three games and plays ten or twelve, this team loses enough ground to settle for second. In my scenario, this misses the playoffs. Mike Vick either needs to be healthy for an entire season, which is unlikely, or they need to be perfect while he is playing, which is also unlikely. Much like last season, Philly will be the team that no one wants to make the playoffs because of how high their highs can be. Fortunately for those teams, I do not believe they will. LeSean McCoy has emerged as an elite runner and I expect a stronger season from Desean Jackson, who can stop complaining now that he has his money. There will be games leaving experts saying this is the Eagles’ year to win it all, but their downfall will be the need to string those games together. You cannot ask Vick to be conservative while still being effective; he has to put himself in harm’s way in order to be one of the most dangerous weapons in football. Unfortunately, that leads Philadelphia to walk a thin line between dream team and nightmare. Their talent is greater than Dallas’, but there is just as much risk. It takes a sure thing to beat these two talented yet unpredictable teams.

1. Giants: Last time the Giants won it all, they got off to a hot start the following season, which came crashing down after an unexpected Monday Night Football loss to the Cleveland Browns. They hung on long enough to earn a bye week, but lost in the divisional round to none other than the Philadelphia Eagles. They ran out of gas at the wrong time, but this team is different. They are seasoned veterans when it comes to winning a championship and will be more prepared than they were for their last adventure. Michael Strahan and Amani Toomer retiring was a tough adjustment for the Giants to make. Losing two “old reliable” types may have hurt their chances in the postseason. This season, they have only lost a declining Brandon Jacobs. I like David Wilson to back up Ahmad Bradshaw once AB injures his foot. Look for huge contributions from their dynamic receiving duo of Hakeem Nicks and the salsa dancing Victor Cruz, but also keep an eye out for Martellus Bennett. The Giants have always made tight ends look great in their system, and the “Black Unicorn” will be no exception. If his self-awarded nickname is any indication, he will at least be interesting to watch, but Eli will make him feel right at home in a place where mediocre tight ends look like superstars. This is Eli’s first season starting off as an elite quarterback, and I expect him to be the one factor that gives the Giants some separation from their rivals. Notice how the criticism for the previous three QBs involved us not knowing what to expect due to some inconsistencies. Eli has become a model of consistency and reliability, and who knew we would say that after only a few seasons ago. As I mentioned in my AFC West article, people are done saying the Giants “could have had Phillip Rivers.” The relentless pass rush from big blue is almost effortless with the best pass rushing defensive line of the past decade. Their four horsemen of the apocalypse give a questionable secondary a lot of leeway. There may not be a repeat champion this season, but I do like the G-Men to win this tough division.

The Redskins are actually the main reason I did not give a wildcard spot to the Cowboys or Eagles. In this division, teams beat each other up too much and may eventually be passed up by wildcards from other divisions. RG3 could be that guy to bring down another team’s hopes, which is as satisfying as it gets for a team with a losing record. In a division with so many question marks, I choose to go with the one sure thing. The Giants identity is solidified by their pass rush and Eli’s outstanding leadership by example (sorry Tiki). New York has quietly become like the Steelers or Patriots in the sense that their system speaks for itself and, while a few pieces change, the constants carry the team to victory. Lastly, I do not want to get too into this aspect of the game but I am stunned by how much the Cowboys have trash talked their way to this season opener. And you wonder why everyone outside of your actual fans hates you. For one thing, they have absolutely no reason to justify this talk and, secondly, giving the defending champions additional motivation for the season opener has to be the dumbest thing since the last thing Jerry Jones said. I know that there is no rooting in the press box, but I hope JPP, Tuck and Osi rip Romo apart tonight. The NFL Eightfold Path was an inspiring idea, but I think the entire point of enlightenment is that we are never fully there. We may experience it, but the process of getting there is perpetual. Throughout this season, we will check in on our teams and predictions; this eight part series was living proof that there is no such thing as too much football talk. For right now, however, let us celebrate the return of America’s favorite game.

The NFL Eightfold Path: AFC East

If I had to bet everything I own on one division winner, it would be the New England Patriots. There is no reason to believe that the Patriots will face much competition in another predictable regular season ending in home field advantage and eventual playoff disappointment. The only question for them is whether or not they can break from that formula and revert to the champions of Brady’s earlier years. What lies behind them is interesting but somewhat anticlimactic as well. The three teams can end up in any order, but at the same time I do not expect any of them to make the playoffs. There is reason to believe in each team following New England, but I like Denver and Pittsburgh as more likely wildcards. It seems as if the only way to the playoffs is to follow the blueprints made by the Dolphins the year the wildcat was brought to the NFL. Someone has to take a few risks and hope for a few lucky breaks in return.

4. Dolphins: I always look more favorably towards the team that receives HBO’s Hard Knocks because, as a fan, I feel involved in their training camp experience. The insider’s look at what goes on behind closed doors can make any team more appealing to viewers. Sadly, Miami just does not have enough going on to convince me that they can consistently put up points or stop other teams from doing just that. They have individual playmakers, such as the always powerful Cameron Wake or the emergence of Reggie Bush, who has the ability to carry this offense if he stays healthy. Between Ryan Tannehill and a disappointing receiving core, the Dolphins’ offense will not be able to get off the ground. While Reggie has come a long way, he still is not a workhorse. In an easy division, the Dolphins can squeak out a few wins to stay out of the NFL basement, but it is going to be a tough season in Miami.

3. Bills: Most people feel the Bills will be the runner up in this division and may be the only team that can give New England a fight. I understand their reasoning because outside of the Patriots, the Bills actually have the division’s best quarterback, running back, and receiver all on the same offense. With the addition of elite pass rusher Mario Williams, the Buffalo defense should be a force to be reckoned with as well. All signs lead to a strong showing from the Bills except one. It is a pretty underwhelming reason, but a hunch tells me to not overreact to the Buffalo Bills looking pretty good. Every season, the Bills seem to look great and start the season with a 4-0 record or something of that nature. Then, they fade dramatically and are ultimately a six win team. This season, anything less than 4-0 should mean disaster for a team that is known to lose momentum as the season goes on. The Bills are finally competitive on paper, but I still cannot associate this organization with a winning record. After all, the Ryan Fitzpatrick and Stevie Johnson connection has been there for years. Despite the great signing of Williams, the team as a whole is not very different at all. Sure, if the Jets score zero touchdowns this year then Buffalo will have a clear path at second place. However, I still say the Bills end up in the third spot.

2. Jets: The Jets may have the worst offense in football and their team as a whole is a walking circus. We get it, and there is no degree of Jets criticism that we have not already heard. What we have not heard as often is what I would like to focus on first, which is the resurgence of Rex Ryan’s defense. The lack of a pass rush has hurt the Jets defense as a whole and has eased them out of the elite category. However, I think role players such as Aaron Maybin and first round draft pick Quentin Coples will generate enough pressure to let the league’s best secondary lock down opposing receivers. Bart Scott and David Harris are the best middle linebacker combination outside of San Francisco. They and a solid defensive line can stuff the run while the young edge rushers make names for themselves. I think the Jets defense is set to make a return to what we saw a couple of years ago when Rex first arrived. Sanchez and the offense are obviously a train wreck, which is why the Jets still cannot catch the Patriots this season, but their defense is better than either Buffalo unit. If the offense can limit their turnovers and live with being mediocre, they will accidentally score enough points for that defense to win games.

1. Patriots: Even with a historically bad defense, there is nothing stopping the Patriots from casually winning another fourteen games this season. Opposing teams simply cannot keep up with their machine of an offense and repeatedly turn the ball over when they try doing so. I am most likely alone on this one, but I believe Tom Brady has gotten worse over the years. During his championship runs, he would spread the ball out and made the New England offense as unpredictable as it was effective. Now, Brady has severe tunnel vision for two targets with Welker and Gronkowski, especially in clutch situations. He can easily fix this, but the dependence on these two pass catchers makes the Patriots not easy to stop, but at least easy to figure out. This allowed the creation of a formula that could actually defeat them, but only the Giants seem to have it figured out and executed it. The first requirement is that you have a good pass rush without blitzing. The pressure created by the basic four man rush creates a need for a quick release from Brady, but he has no problem with this. After all, his options are a wide receiver that runs five yard routes and a tight end that runs ten yard routes. The Pats have lacked any threat beyond these distances, so the Giants stack most of their coverage in the five to ten yard range, creating a smokescreen of G-Men for Brady to throw into. Only one or two guys stay deep just in case, which is enough of a safety net to prevent a big play from a small play team. While the Pats seem intricate, they only operate within the hash marks of a five to ten yard depth, which is a grand approximate total of 60 yards. Each of the Giants in this area only have about 15 yards of surface area to cover, which is not exactly challenging to a professional linebacker or safety. This is very limiting to New England’s offense, even for someone with Brady’s accuracy. When the Giants give Brady so little time to throw into such a small and crowded window, you get the biggest upsets in NFL history. Beating the Pats defense is then easy. Just show up.

I know I went more into the Patriots’ scheme than their actual chances this season, but that is because their path is obvious. They will win the AFC East and we will measure their success by their fate in the playoffs. The addition of Brandon Lloyd may help defeat the formula, but even with him there Brady has to make the conscious effort to get him involved. The only twist ending would be if a team without Eli Manning 1. figures this winning formula out and 2. can actually do it. The AFC East is a mystery beyond this point, but I have faith in the Jets’ ability to be defined by their strengths instead of their weaknesses. It has become popular to mock them, probably because the combined efforts of Sanchez and Tebow are pretty funny. But I believe the defensive one trick pony will follow its offensive counterpart in these standings. The Bills are not quite there yet as whole, and I fear another potentially strong start will go to waste in upstate New York. As a whole, this division is one Patriots away from being among the lowest of the low. I am happy to say that for our final stop on my NFL Eightfold Path seeks to reclaim its title as the NFL’s best division. They took a hit in the 2011 regular season but eventually emerged from a thick veil of mediocrity with a Super Bowl champion. For our final stop, we will pay the defending champion Giants a visit and, hopefully, achieve football enlightenment.

The NFL Eightfold Path: NFC South

The NFC South is primarily known for its quarterbacks and its parody. Teams have frequently been able to go from worst to first despite tough competition. I cannot say the Bucs are prepared to do this, but the fact remains that this division is no stranger to surprises. The Saints’ bounty scandal and suspensions level the playing field and chip away at the supreme level of talent in New Orleans, but whether or not it will be enough to dethrone the division champs remains to be seen. Cam Newton is certainly a fun story but, in order to progress as a player, his NFL relevance will have to equal his fantasy football importance. There is a big leap between being a great player on a bad team and elevating that team to playoff contention. The Falcons had a solid season brought to a violent end by the eventual Super Bowl champions, and will compete with the remaining two underdogs to chase after the room left by the Saints’ disastrous offseason.

4. Buccaneers: Based on the eye test alone, I believe this was the worst team in football last season. They may not have had the worst record, but their play and effort were nonexistent throughout the second half of the season. Josh Freeman’s development took a huge step backwards and I could not even get a fair read on their defense because they were so apathetic. With Vincent Jackson bringing some life back into Freeman’s passing offense, I am sure Tampa will be more respectable as a team, but their record may be just as bad. I wish there was more to say about the Buccaneers, but in this division and conference they simply do not stack up well enough to be competitive. In the NFC, there are few easy wins, and the Bucs are one of them.

3. Panthers: Cam Newton pieced together the most impressive personal rookie season in NFL history. He was the downfall of the Green Bay defense, dominated both the air and ground, and single handedly revived Steve Smith’s dynamic career. The key word behind his accomplishments is personal because while he did make the Panthers better, it still felt like more of a fantasy football exhibition than a team making a playoff push. Last year, I had the Panthers as the second best NFL offseason, next to only the “dream team” Eagles. Not only did I have faith in Cam, but the moves made to hang onto their talent and bring in some new free agents were impressive to me as well. With all this said, I was clearly on the Carolina bandwagon, however this year’s perceived playoff chances may be a slight overreaction. I still see Newton and company as an eight win team, which would be another improvement. Despite being third here, the Panthers are certainly trending in the right direction. The return of John Beason at middle linebacker will single handedly fix most of their defensive issues. He is basically Pat Willis on a lesser team. With Williams and Stewart joining Cam’s ground efforts, Carolina can definitely lead the NFL in rushing, which would be great for the other aspects of this very promising team.

2. Saints: Drew Brees shattered records last season and should be a guarantee to win almost any division by himself. In addition to this record setting aerial assault, the Saints quietly have an excellent and versatile running game as well. With Pierre Thomas as the consistency, Darren Sproles for big plays, and an undetermined amount of production from a now healthy Mark Ingram, this team would win half of their games with a terrible quarterback. The biggest story here is obviously the bounty scandal and the suspensions that stripped New Orleans of a defensive coordinator, a head coach, a middle linebacker and everyone else affected by a process that I may or may not despise. While the commissioner’s habits are for another day, we are forced to move on taking into account these penalties. At face value, the Saints still have what makes them dominant. Their many offensive weapons are still intact, however in a strong division there may be more to winning than firepower. Allegedly, Sean Payton is the NFL’s best and most intricate play caller. I am sure Drew Brees and what is left of the coaching staff can piece something effective together, but I cannot imagine a repeat of last season without Payton calling the shots. Without the head coach that built this phenomenal offense, we can expect at least a slight dip in production. Without a shutdown defense, this slight decrease on offense may be enough to give the division away to a more complete team.

1. Falcons: Complete is the first word that comes to mind when I think of the Atlanta Falcons. Michael Turner has made them one of the best ground and pound teams in the NFL, and he now has the luxury of Matt Ryan’s one-two punch of receivers. Roddy White and Julio Jones can take the NFL’s best wide receiver duo title this season. Anytime someone as elite as Roddy White may lose his number one receiver spot to a young player that the team essentially traded the General Manager’s house for, you know you have something special. Defensively, Atlanta has playmakers but has always been one dominant middle linebacker away from being as complete on defense as they are on offense. I always wanted to photoshop John Beason onto their roster to just see what happens. Either way, Atlanta has what it takes to win this division because they are finally becoming as dynamic as they are balanced. Turner may be aging but, with those two outside weapons, he is about to receive a lot more room to run. Matt Ryan is not elite, but has always been able to maintain a great offense as long as the pieces are already in place. My main concern with this team is their dramatic decrease in performance once the playoffs arrive. They are the only team in this division to not appear in a Super Bowl in the past decade. From Mike Vick’s era to Matt Ryan’s, they can seemingly never reach the Promised Land. Maybe part of it is just bad luck when you consider the fact that their last two eliminations were to eventual Super Bowl champions. Despite this coincidence, I do not give them a break. Anyone with the awful nickname “Matty Ice” should be able to elevate his play in the biggest games, especially now that his supporting cast is fantastic. I have the Falcons winning this division, but the regular season has never exactly been their problem.

I briefly mentioned NFC South quarterbacks earlier, and I would someday like to find which division really is the best collection of four quarterbacks. My first impression is between here and the NFC East, but when the time comes it could be anyone according to the numbers. In terms of this season’s results, I do think the Saints may lose control of this division, but I still expect them to advance to the playoffs. This would leave the last spot to a fight between the winner of the Bears-Lions conflict and the NFC East runner up. I may not have given Carolina as much credit as people would expect after the progress they made last season, but I do believe Cam Newton will determine the winner of this division when they play the Saints in week 17. That one game may be all that separates the two top teams if Cam is able to upset Drew Brees and a limping New Orleans Saints. Next time, we have finally made our way home on our NFL path of enlightenment. It is almost time to play the yearly game of figuring out the order of the AFC East teams behind the Patriots.

The NFL Eightfold Path: AFC South

The AFC South will be nominated for the honor of the NFL’s worst division. The Colts carried the struggling group for years with occasional appearances from the Jaguars or Titans. Now, however, the shadow cast by Peyton Manning over the remaining three teams is gone, leaving room for a new perennial division champion. Last season, the traditionally terrible Texans answered this call and became the AFC’s best team before eventually being brought down hard by multiple injuries. In 2012-13, we get to find out whether or not their success is temporary. In a foursome that will almost certainly be held to one playoff team, winning the division becomes even more crucial. I took a week off to settle back at school, but now it is time to rapid fire these last few divisions before Wednesday night kickoff in MetLife.

4. Colts: Andrew Luck’s potential is almost enough to sneak Indy up to third place in my projections, but there was a lot more missing from this team than Peyton Manning last season. The Colts used to get away with an underwhelming running game or defense because one of history’s greatest players would baby them to victory. Luck will be a serviceable replacement, but he will need more help than Peyton ever required to push this mediocre team into playoff contention. I do believe that the Colts were never the NFL’s worst team and simply suffered from the shock value of Manning’s injury, especially when they started the season expecting a return at some point. This season should be better, but their clear intentions are to slowly rebuild behind the slow and steady development of the pieces they currently have in place. Donald Brown is a decent enough weapon to support Luck and Reggie Wayne’s career is not quite over yet, so there is reason to believe that the Colts do not have reservations for last place this season. While I am not sold enough to rank them above any of the next three teams, Luck is capable of as many as seven wins this season.

3. Jaguars: With Maurice Jones-Drew leading the NFL in rushing last season, the Jags still finished the season with the NFL’s worst offense. This off-season’s holdout stressed the importance of an improvement from sophomore quarterback Blaine Gabbert. To me, Gabbert was the NFL’s worst starting QB last season. He has actually looked good throughout the preseason, but I try not to overreact to exhibition play. I am sure he will not be as bad, but a huge problem for Jacksonville will be if Mojo is not as good. Historically, players who hold out over contract disputes are less durable and, ultimately, less productive. If Jones-Drew struggles or is anything less than healthy and spectacular, Gabbert and company may be in for a long season. Expect a more balanced attack from the Jags, but not a much more effective one. The Jaguars quietly have a strong defense and Justin Blackmon appears to have potential as a playmaking receiver, so they have enough to finish ahead of a team that is going through a compete rebuilding phase. However, the playoffs are most likely out of the question here as well.

2. Titans: In contrast to the holdout point made about Mojo, Tennessee’s Chris Johnson seems to be set up for a huge season. Last year, he suffered career lows in most statistical categories, which was likely a consequence of not showing up at training camp and demanding a bigger contract. This season, we can expect a more typical CJ2K effort, especially with a rookie-led offense that will rely on Johnson’s production. I would not consider the Titans among the legitimate playoff contenders despite the impressive push they made towards the end of last season. Jake Locker’s decision making is still questionable and Kenny Britt’s health is not trustworthy enough to assume Tennessee will have weapons outside of Chris Johnson. Defensively, they are a far cry from the Titans that had Albert Haynesworth in his prime. That team used to dominate the line of scrimmage and dictate the pace of the game. Now, they lack playmakers and Locker may find himself in a few uncomfortable shootouts that will make him more vulnerable to mistakes. Once this Tennessee team falls behind and loses the ability to consistently run the ball, they will struggle to keep up with better teams.

1. Texans: I believe Houston will be the only team in the AFC South to win more than eight games. They have become an elite team that, like New England, benefits from having six very winnable games from division rivalries. With arguably the best all-around running back in football, Arian Foster, the impressive connection between Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson is almost overlooked now. If they can stay healthy, the Texans are in a great position to make a Super Bowl run. They may have lost Mario Williams this off-season to Buffalo, but they won games last season without him and other key players who will be returning. JJ Watt serves as their new defensive anchor and is more than capable of creating similar chaos for opposing quarterbacks. Houston has no real weakness; they just have to become more exceptional in order to improve after last season’s strong effort against a lot of adversity. Their passing game has to be at least close to the threat of their running game, which would make them nearly unstoppable. The Texans should run away with this division, the only question is whether or not they have enough to win it all.

The AFC South will likely be dominated by one team yet again, but this time Peyton’s Colts have handed the keys over to Matt Schaub’s Texans. Houston needs to take advantage of this division’s weakened state and seize the opportunity they have been given. The only remaining mystery is whether the Titans or another likely contender have what it takes to push another team out of the playoff picture. Tomorrow, we will look at what is traditionally the NFL’s most unpredictable division. This will include an exiled coach, some massive underachievers and an attempt to live up to a rookie season for the ages.