The NCAA football bowl season has been exciting, but in my personal opinion, the main purpose of these glorified exhibition games is to maintain my appreciation for our NFL playoffs. Using a conventional post-season format where a playoff tournament determines the league’s champion is something that the average sports fan takes for granted. Before we get too into a conversation for another day, the events most deserving of our attention in the world of sports are the NFL playoffs that begin next weekend. Our first set of matchups includes Bengals at Texans, Lions at Saints, Steelers at Broncos, and Falcons at Giants. Each individual game contains unique elements and dynamics that will set the stage for the remaining playoff rounds. Any given Sunday might be the most insightful three words in sports, and of course anything can happen, but a projected path through the NFL playoffs can’t hurt our chances of guessing how things play out.
The first game taking place on Saturday includes a tale of two surprises. The Texans were projected to be talented as always, but few singled this year out as the turning point season, where they would finally get over the hump and into the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. This history, however, did not come without a price. Mario Williams, Matt Schaub, his backup Matt Leinart and at least a part of Andre Johnson have been lost for nearly the entire season. With all due respect to T.J. Yates, who has done a solid job at keeping Houston afloat, the Texans are clearly vulnerable as they become introduced to post-season play. The Bengals, on the other hand, surprised just about everyone with their success. Rookies Andy Dalton and A.J. Green built on top of the strong foundation laid down by a good defense and running game. During the pre-season, analysts discussed the probability of Cincinnati having the worst offense in football, which was quickly put to rest. What makes the Bengals a questionable playoff team is their record this year against teams that eventually made the playoffs, which is 0-7. They have beaten one winning team this year (9-7 Titans) and built their good record by beating up on the teams they should have beaten. Despite these statistics and the fact that they will be playing on the road, I believe that the Bengals will get their first quality victory at the most essential time. The Texans simply suffered too many injuries that took a championship caliber roster and reduced it to a first round departure.
When Saturday night comes around we will witness what should be an absolute assault unless the Detroit Lions manage to outscore the Pistons that night. If nothing else, this game will be a highlight reel with more exciting plays than we will see in any other first round matchup. The Detroit Lions began this season on fire but abruptly cooled down and settled for the last playoff seed. Fortunately for them, the Packers were not going to let them in as anything but a wildcard anyway so if they return to the early-season Lions, they have not lost much in the grand scheme of things and can beat anyone. The Saints just missed out on a bye week and have not changed much from the Super Bowl days, except for a noticeable step backwards on the defensive side of the ball. Neither defense is stellar, but Detroit’s is absolutely terrible and Drew Brees knows how to make any coverage look bad. Matt Stafford and company are one of the few offenses that can actually keep pace with New Orleans, but they are much more likely to make costly mistakes that will allow the Saints to pull away as the game develops. Both teams will light up the scoreboard, but once the Lions start giving the ball away and committing foolish penalties, the Saints will not look back. Then again, the Saints were even more of a lock for last year’s opening playoff game and were devoured by beast mode, but I have faith in Drew Brees for what should be a decisive win.
The other NFC showdown is a tough one to look at because of the nature of one of the participants. The Atlanta Falcons infiltrate the Meadowlands to take on the New York Giants, whose fans must be comparing this team to the one that won a most improbable and incredible championship not so long ago. Their record is underwhelming, but for the past couple of weeks, the pass rush and offensive production are so similar to that of the miracle Giants of the 2007 season. While Eli’s career year and the team’s overall play recently is tough to argue, I will try because I expect a narrow Falcons victory here. The reasoning behind my lack of faith in the Giants lies behind the analysis of these two epic wins. After losing five out of six games, the G-Men defeated the Jets and the Cowboys in consecutive games. Both of these opponents, while good on paper, proved that they were pathetic throughout the crucial end of this regular season. Miami and Philadelphia showed the world that beating these two teams right now is not exactly the most impressive accomplishment. As pessimistic as it is, I think any competent team would have completed the comeback that the Cowboys failed to reach last weekend, which the Giants tried so hard to give away after becoming completely stagnant on offense. I would ride the wave of Big Blue momentum if the Falcons weren’t such a formidable opponent. They define offensive balance and have a defense that is stingy enough to bring out Mr. Hyde from Tom Coughlin’s Dr. Jekyll. This is the week’s toughest call for me because Eli can out-gun Matt Ryan any day and their defensive line is fearsome, but I cannot go against the balance that the Falcons bring as a team. They have no clear weakness unless a team is just too good to beat, which the Giants are not. In the big picture, neither team is at the Super Bowl level, but either team is capable of a monumental upset of one of the top contenders.
Back in the AFC, Tim Tebow awaits his judgment day as a limping giant comes to town. The Broncos have been a curious case this season that ended in a standoff with the Raiders over who wanted to make the playoffs less. The magic of Tebow Time has taken a break and ever since Tom Brady’s flight to Mile High, Denver has been awful. Their offense resembles a bad High School Team and their defense, while talented, cannot carry the team without help. Until Matt Prater can increase his kicking range from 59 yards to about 80, I do not see how Tebow and company can score very many points. While the road ahead for the Broncos is a tough one, their opponent’s flaws and overall misfortune will help them out. The Steelers were dealt serious blows throughout the end of the regular season. Defensive stars Aaron Smith (who I barely consider on the team anymore) and Lamar Woodley have struggled to stay healthy. On top of this, underrated safety Ryan Clark has a rare blood condition that cannot tolerate the air in Denver, so he will likely miss the game as well. On offense, Ben Roethlisberger is still immobile from his ankle injury, Rashard Mendenhall is done for the season with a torn ACL and multiple linemen have gone down, including the excellent center Maurkice Pouncey. This is most problematic for a team that already can’t block anyone. These are by far the two teams that are least prepared for the playoffs and they are both lucky to be facing each other because in my opinion, they would each be a guaranteed loss against other opponents. In a battle of something has to give, I think that my Steelers simply have too much talent and can overwhelm the Broncos on the road. Tim Tebow should not fare well against this year’s number one defense and top rated secondary. Defensively, the Broncos will hold their ground but receivers Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown will make just enough plays to keep things moving. I have the Steelers winning but they cannot win a second playoff game without a healing worthy of the lord and savior’s attention. As a Steelers fan, this reminds me so much of the 2007 team that limped into the playoffs in a similar fashion and lost the Jaguars. Due to the weakness of our opponent, I say the Steelers win a game that becomes irrelevant one week later.
The teams waiting in the wings as spectators are the Packers, Patriots, 49ers, and Ravens. To me the AFC picture is relatively clear. Through personal bias and common sense, I have been anti Joe Flacco for some time, but the team around him and a weakening conference has become too much to deny. If my winners proceed to this round, the Steelers will be limbless and the Bengals will still be somewhat mediocre. Both teams will have advanced due to the weaknesses of their opponents. It is tough to watch the two teams I hate most become the two best teams in the AFC by far. The Patriots can give Baltimore a great game, especially in New England, but they have not won a playoff game since before the one Giant loss, they refuse to play any defense and Tom Brady has quietly been a slow starter lately. He gets heated up as the game goes on and leads impressive comebacks, which Ray Lewis and company will not allow. Flacco can play his way out of the playoffs at any time, but he is hopelessly spoiled by a great defense, running game and offensive line. He deals with next to no adversity throughout the course of a game. People used to hypothetically say that the Pats only needed Brady and head coach Bill Belichick to win. Now that this has become a reality to some degree, New England is finding out that they were sadly mistaken. The Ravens’ only losses this year were to teams that surprised them when they were not mentally ready to play well. Of their four losses, only one was to a barely winning team (9-7 Titans). I mean this all as a compliment, however, because they have gotten up for every big game and play to the ability of their opponents. The playoffs are the only time when playing to your opponents is a good thing, and they should pick apart a relatively weak AFC en route to a Super Bowl appearance.
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