NBA Season Preview

Dirk and company will unofficially team up with the rest of the NBA for a second straight season to prevent the seemingly inevitable: a Miami Heat championship run. There may be a few new faces in the tier of highly competitive teams this year, and a few familiar faces may see the end of their run. The western conference representatives are preparing their latest defenses for what has been a new millennium of western supremacy. At the same time, a few beasts in the east are planning to shift the balance of power in their favor. With a great opening set of games just days away, the Christmas season will bring answers to our questions and speculations about this abbreviated NBA season. While we can only guess so much about the upcoming year, the NBA is traditionally the most predictable of the major sports. We may be able to draw up the 2011-12 blueprint right now, or at least outline the big contenders from each conference.

Picking the Heat to win the eastern conference again is typical for a reason. Three superstars were able to essentially wing it and take their team to game six of the finals despite a lack of on-court chemistry. Between two primary ball carriers, no depth whatsoever, and how seldom they utilized what little post presence they had, the system itself was not a good one at all. Despite all this, the sheer talent of their “Big 3” led to human highlight reels and getting to the free throw line at an absurd frequency. This year, they return with another off-season together under their belts and the quiet addition of veteran Shane Battier. He will provide quality defense to what was already the league’s best defensive team and, more importantly, the clutch shooting that they so desperately need. Battier is a nice contrast to the series of useless veterans who agreed to minimum salaries just to hop on the Miami bandwagon with the hopes of finally winning a ring. If the Heat can fix even a few of their many imperfections, they will remain clear favorites.

It is tough to talk basketball without rambling on about the Heat at some point, so for this I do apologize. Yes, all those things will make them formidable again, but there are a few teams that will not let them simply walk into the finals again. First of all, the only thing scarier than the increasing cohesiveness of the Heat is the maturation of MVP Derrick Rose. The Chicago Bulls are by far the most complete team in the east and are just as good defensively as Miami. Offensively, they will need a much bigger contribution from Carlos Boozer as a right hand man and Rose can still be their top scorer. I have nothing against scoring point guards as long as they can also distribute when necessary. Rose has to avoid becoming either reckless or selfish with the ball. There is so much left to his game, such as perimeter shooting and better passing, yet he has already won an MVP. No team can beat Chicago if Rose reaches his full potential.

It has become popular to predict the demise of the Boston Celtics, and I cannot even fully disagree with this after the embarrassing effort the put forward in the playoffs last season against Miami. Their roster is ancient and their front office must be some degree of insane after trying to trade away Rajan Rondo, who is now their best player. However, one major factor makes me think that these Celtics might be the best we have seen since their championship. They are the one team in the league that is actually happy about the NBA lockout. Every year, despite their age, they have gotten off to great starts. Progressive fatigue eventually kicks in and they slowly get worse towards the end of the season. This year, a shorter season might avoid what has become a routine downfall. I will not remove the Celtics from the elite category until they actually have a bad season because their leadership and talent is strong enough to overcome their obvious obstacles. Oh and God forbid Rondo actually learns how to shoot, in that case we’re all doomed.

The New York Knicks could really go either way but their problem is very simple. It would have been great to land Chris Paul, which has been the big plan for some time now, but unfortunately we simply had nothing to offer New Orleans because, like Miami, the Knicks roster is very top heavy. You have your superstars followed by barely serviceable supporting pieces. Adding Tyson Chandler was actually the biggest move made, in my opinion, by any team this off-season. Some people say he was overpaid, but I say you can’t put a price on defense, which is essentially what we bought. The simple problem facing the Knicks is that they don’t play any defense, and Chandler might just be the guy to fix that. Defense is a contagious art; Kevin Garnett set off a chain reaction in Boston once he arrived, and this case might be a similar situation. It has been a long time since a team won a championship without a good point guard, but my jury is out on Douglas, who I think will emerge as the starter over Bibby and Davis. It is a concern, but not one that can’t work out well for New Yorkers. The Knicks already have the best front court in the game, and if the backcourt develops they will become one of the league’s elite teams for years to come.

The western conference has the reverse dynamic of the east; one young team is battling against three old teams. Teams like the Lakers, Spurs, and Mavericks are all on the thin line between end of their prime and past it. They will all drop out of the elite teams at some point, but whether or not that point is this season remains to be seen. I always have faith in what Kobe has left in the tank, but I am beginning to fear the worst for one reason. What has always driven Kobe and the Lakers is that despite winning so much, they still are the hungriest team in the league to win another championship. Towards the end of this past season, they surprised me with such a disappointing effort. I suspect this hunger may be running out, and if this is true their old age and decreasing talent will begin to show. Phil Jackson may have seen this before any of us and made his departure a timely one. The Spurs are even older and showed that while they still execute well and can win games, they can be beaten by younger and more athletic teams. The Mavericks lost a key piece in Chandler and one of my pet peeves in basketball is forcing a power forward to play center. Dirk is a great scorer but was labeled soft until he did not have to be the biggest man on the court. Pau Gasol has a similar dynamic with Andrew Bynum, who gives him the freedom to avoid opposing centers. This leaves the Thunder, who seem to be the inevitable team to inherit the western conference. The only question is do they take over this year or sometimes in the next two, but I think they are ready now to make the jump over the legends that surround them.

It is tough to cover everyone but I would say we came close, at least in terms of the serious contenders. In my opinion, one notable team was left out from each side. The Magic are nothing without Dwight Howard, whose heart is clearly not in Orlando. In the west, the clippers made a big splash signing CP3 but gave away much of their nucleus to get him. Power forward Blake Griffin is now their biggest player with Kaman gone, which you now know I am fundamentally against. Paul will shine as a Clipper but does not have much more around him than he did in New Orleans, so I cannot expect much more success from the team that is still the younger brother in Los Angeles.

Overall, I think that a complaint about the NBA’s lack of parody is a joke. Yes, there is a shortlist of teams that can win it all, which would never happen in the NFL, but it’s not nearly as bad as having two or three super-teams. This was such a concern going into CBA negotiations, but if it takes this long to analyze the major contenders for this year’s title, the league is in good shape. If your fanhood was not represented here, then you may as well start cutting players to clear salary cap space for the free agent class of 2016 or something; it’s what my team put me through for about four years, and hopefully it’s finally going to pay off.