Battle: New York

Luckily for New York fans, the NFL playoffs start early this year. Between inconsistent play and a few inexcusable losses, both the Giants and Jets have backed themselves into a corner and must win their remaining games in order to keep control of their own destinies. If the Giants lose, they need the Cowboys to lose out in order to win the division, which includes a finale between the two teams. They have no wildcard hopes. The Jets, on the other hand, have no hopes of winning the division. If they lose, they hand control of the last wildcard spot over to the Bengals. While it is not necessarily true, the winner of this game will likely make the playoffs, and the loser will likely miss them. This game qualifies as possibly the most important Jets vs. Giants game in history, and might be the biggest game played in MetLife stadium until the 2014 Super Bowl. Now that we have established the importance of this contest, who will win?

Just before this season began, I wrote up an article previewing these two teams and their chances. I believed that while both teams had considerable issues, they were both strong enough to make some noise and the Jets were slightly better off. Now the Jets are one game ahead as these two teams fight over which gets to escape mediocrity. As I said then, the Giants have the more dynamic offense but the Jets have the much better defense, and neither offense is nearly consistent enough to be considered elite. Rarely do things go according to prediction, so I do feel the need to point this out, but never has there been a more unpredictable game. Due to the Jekyll and Hyde nature of seemingly every facet of both teams, no one really knows not only who will win, but also what kind of game will it be. Eli Manning has put up some extraordinary numbers that put him in the top 5 quarterback conversation, and the Giants cannot shut down any quarterback entirely so Mark Sanchez has a chance to build on what has been a career year. With Shonn Greene running the ball well lately, the Jets offense can get moving and we may have a shootout on our hands. Despite all this, Darrelle Revis and company still boast one of the league’s best secondaries, and on the other side of the ball Jets Right Tackle Wayne Hunter cannot physically block anybody so the Giants famous pass rush may feast on Sanchez. Therefore, this game could also be a defensive struggle. Since basically everything can go either way in this game, the winner will be the team that can simply plug up the most holes in their questionable play, to say the least. It is an anticlimactic deciding factor, but it will determine their fates nonetheless.

Back in September I identified the Giants’ flaws to be the turnover ratio, and they have done a pretty good job at limiting their key mistakes while still throwing all over the field. On the Jets side, I said their problems were the heavy limitations of their quarterback and also their head coach Rex Ryan, who has opened up the playbook slightly and Sanchez is actually having a pretty good year. While Eli has kept a relatively clean slate and Sanchez has been on his way up, both teams have slipped. Last week, we saw both sides of New York football revert to their signature problems. Their regressions have led to nothing but concern over their ability to win future games. Fortunately for both teams, they now play each other, so something has to give. If the game opens up early and becomes a shootout, I think the Giants have a clear advantage. Their defense may be bad, but Sanchez is not good enough to torch any defense for thirty something points by himself. He needs help from his defense to win, which is not the case with Eli. If the game is a low scoring and close one to the end however, I give the edge to the Jets. I used to value pass rushers over pass coverers, but in this new age of offenses quarterbacks can get rid of the ball in less than two seconds if they really want to. The few times my Steelers got pressure on 49ers QB Alex Smith, he had already gotten rid of the ball. The only way to keep the ball from receivers in modern football is to make sure they are never open, which is what the Jets are best at. Eli will not find an open receiver on Revis island with the game on the line, and the G-Men no longer have the running game to compensate and make up for this. Sanchez, on the other hand, will be given few, easy, and quick throws, most of which will be off of play action. Even a clear path through Wayne Hunter wont be enough to consistently get to him.

Coach Rex Ryan readied his troupes by calling this game a “battle for New York supremacy.” While this comment was made in typical Rex fashion to build hype and help the public forget their embarrassing loss to the Eagles, I do believe he is exactly right. The Giants reminded New York that the city belonged to them when they beat the Patriots in the greatest Super Bowl of all time. However, their grip on the city has slowly loosened with every disappointing season and the Jets have climbed to their sinking level with consecutive AFC championship appearances and their effectively arrogant demeanor. The best tie breaker of all is the game we will watch later today: Jets vs. Giants, winner take all.

I despise guessing scores but this one is too important to pass up. 20-23 Jets (OT)

NBA Season Preview

Dirk and company will unofficially team up with the rest of the NBA for a second straight season to prevent the seemingly inevitable: a Miami Heat championship run. There may be a few new faces in the tier of highly competitive teams this year, and a few familiar faces may see the end of their run. The western conference representatives are preparing their latest defenses for what has been a new millennium of western supremacy. At the same time, a few beasts in the east are planning to shift the balance of power in their favor. With a great opening set of games just days away, the Christmas season will bring answers to our questions and speculations about this abbreviated NBA season. While we can only guess so much about the upcoming year, the NBA is traditionally the most predictable of the major sports. We may be able to draw up the 2011-12 blueprint right now, or at least outline the big contenders from each conference.

Picking the Heat to win the eastern conference again is typical for a reason. Three superstars were able to essentially wing it and take their team to game six of the finals despite a lack of on-court chemistry. Between two primary ball carriers, no depth whatsoever, and how seldom they utilized what little post presence they had, the system itself was not a good one at all. Despite all this, the sheer talent of their “Big 3” led to human highlight reels and getting to the free throw line at an absurd frequency. This year, they return with another off-season together under their belts and the quiet addition of veteran Shane Battier. He will provide quality defense to what was already the league’s best defensive team and, more importantly, the clutch shooting that they so desperately need. Battier is a nice contrast to the series of useless veterans who agreed to minimum salaries just to hop on the Miami bandwagon with the hopes of finally winning a ring. If the Heat can fix even a few of their many imperfections, they will remain clear favorites.

It is tough to talk basketball without rambling on about the Heat at some point, so for this I do apologize. Yes, all those things will make them formidable again, but there are a few teams that will not let them simply walk into the finals again. First of all, the only thing scarier than the increasing cohesiveness of the Heat is the maturation of MVP Derrick Rose. The Chicago Bulls are by far the most complete team in the east and are just as good defensively as Miami. Offensively, they will need a much bigger contribution from Carlos Boozer as a right hand man and Rose can still be their top scorer. I have nothing against scoring point guards as long as they can also distribute when necessary. Rose has to avoid becoming either reckless or selfish with the ball. There is so much left to his game, such as perimeter shooting and better passing, yet he has already won an MVP. No team can beat Chicago if Rose reaches his full potential.

It has become popular to predict the demise of the Boston Celtics, and I cannot even fully disagree with this after the embarrassing effort the put forward in the playoffs last season against Miami. Their roster is ancient and their front office must be some degree of insane after trying to trade away Rajan Rondo, who is now their best player. However, one major factor makes me think that these Celtics might be the best we have seen since their championship. They are the one team in the league that is actually happy about the NBA lockout. Every year, despite their age, they have gotten off to great starts. Progressive fatigue eventually kicks in and they slowly get worse towards the end of the season. This year, a shorter season might avoid what has become a routine downfall. I will not remove the Celtics from the elite category until they actually have a bad season because their leadership and talent is strong enough to overcome their obvious obstacles. Oh and God forbid Rondo actually learns how to shoot, in that case we’re all doomed.

The New York Knicks could really go either way but their problem is very simple. It would have been great to land Chris Paul, which has been the big plan for some time now, but unfortunately we simply had nothing to offer New Orleans because, like Miami, the Knicks roster is very top heavy. You have your superstars followed by barely serviceable supporting pieces. Adding Tyson Chandler was actually the biggest move made, in my opinion, by any team this off-season. Some people say he was overpaid, but I say you can’t put a price on defense, which is essentially what we bought. The simple problem facing the Knicks is that they don’t play any defense, and Chandler might just be the guy to fix that. Defense is a contagious art; Kevin Garnett set off a chain reaction in Boston once he arrived, and this case might be a similar situation. It has been a long time since a team won a championship without a good point guard, but my jury is out on Douglas, who I think will emerge as the starter over Bibby and Davis. It is a concern, but not one that can’t work out well for New Yorkers. The Knicks already have the best front court in the game, and if the backcourt develops they will become one of the league’s elite teams for years to come.

The western conference has the reverse dynamic of the east; one young team is battling against three old teams. Teams like the Lakers, Spurs, and Mavericks are all on the thin line between end of their prime and past it. They will all drop out of the elite teams at some point, but whether or not that point is this season remains to be seen. I always have faith in what Kobe has left in the tank, but I am beginning to fear the worst for one reason. What has always driven Kobe and the Lakers is that despite winning so much, they still are the hungriest team in the league to win another championship. Towards the end of this past season, they surprised me with such a disappointing effort. I suspect this hunger may be running out, and if this is true their old age and decreasing talent will begin to show. Phil Jackson may have seen this before any of us and made his departure a timely one. The Spurs are even older and showed that while they still execute well and can win games, they can be beaten by younger and more athletic teams. The Mavericks lost a key piece in Chandler and one of my pet peeves in basketball is forcing a power forward to play center. Dirk is a great scorer but was labeled soft until he did not have to be the biggest man on the court. Pau Gasol has a similar dynamic with Andrew Bynum, who gives him the freedom to avoid opposing centers. This leaves the Thunder, who seem to be the inevitable team to inherit the western conference. The only question is do they take over this year or sometimes in the next two, but I think they are ready now to make the jump over the legends that surround them.

It is tough to cover everyone but I would say we came close, at least in terms of the serious contenders. In my opinion, one notable team was left out from each side. The Magic are nothing without Dwight Howard, whose heart is clearly not in Orlando. In the west, the clippers made a big splash signing CP3 but gave away much of their nucleus to get him. Power forward Blake Griffin is now their biggest player with Kaman gone, which you now know I am fundamentally against. Paul will shine as a Clipper but does not have much more around him than he did in New Orleans, so I cannot expect much more success from the team that is still the younger brother in Los Angeles.

Overall, I think that a complaint about the NBA’s lack of parody is a joke. Yes, there is a shortlist of teams that can win it all, which would never happen in the NFL, but it’s not nearly as bad as having two or three super-teams. This was such a concern going into CBA negotiations, but if it takes this long to analyze the major contenders for this year’s title, the league is in good shape. If your fanhood was not represented here, then you may as well start cutting players to clear salary cap space for the free agent class of 2016 or something; it’s what my team put me through for about four years, and hopefully it’s finally going to pay off.

Tebow Time

A young Denver Broncos quarterback and Florida Gators legend has found an interesting place among the NFL’s top stories this season. In a year graced with an undefeated defending champion, a tight end destroying records in New England and four quarterbacks on pace to break Marino’s single-season passing record (Brees, Brady, Rodgers, E. Manning), Tim Tebow has somehow worked his way into more top stories on ESPN than anyone else. This demonstrates how the only figure more potent in the media than a great player is a polarizing player. Between his unconventional playing style and his off-field persona, Tebow is either hated or loved by both fans and analysts. While coming up with a verdict on Tebow as a player is hard enough, today we will face the even tougher challenge of establishing a middle ground.

The Tim Tebow haters have used valid fundamental logic to create excessive and eventually mindless criticism. First let’s acknowledge a few points you will often hear from Tebow’s opposition. He is obviously not as good a passer as the elite NFL quarterbacks, however I have trouble finding what is so terrible about someone who is less accurate than Tom Brady because it describes an alarming majority of the league. It may also be true that even the second tier guys can out-throw Tebow. Despite his lack of glamour or style points, Tebow is simply more effective than most players when it comes to a few crucial elements of football. Two areas where the game is either won or lost are the turnover ratio and fourth quarter play. If you are not going to be the most prolific passer, you better hang on to the ball. Tebow has scored 14 times this year (11 passing, 3 rushing), as opposed to only two turnovers this season. If you are on the offensively challenged side of New York fans, you are used to a quarterback who not only fails to be prolific, but also is accustomed to costly turnovers that sometimes decide games. Tebow is also the NFL’s highest rated passer after the seven minute mark in the fourth quarter. He may begin the game with high school level passing, but after the third quarter he will rise again. I would bet that Dallas fans, despite their offensive production, would love to have a guy like that to prevent so many late game collapses.

I may defend Tebow in debate against those who simply hate him just to hate him, or because someone like him as a person is just too good to be true, but at the same time anyone talking him up too much and hash tagging Tebow Time makes me sick. Excessively praising Tebow is like occupying Wall Street, there’s a halfway decent point to be made there but you need to stop because you’re making the reasonable fans of your idea look stupid. Superman does not wear Tebow pajamas and yes, Chuck Norris would mess with him if he wanted to. Tebow’s success this year deserves more of a pie chart of credit. Sports writers are so eager to distribute blame for tough losses, but the same should be done for acclaim after a great win. Tebow does play an essential role, but so does running back Willis McGahee or a rapidly improving defense. Against elite competition, Denver will not have the chance to pull off some late game heroics. Sadly, it will take a full four quarters of Tebow Time to defeat Tom Brady and the Patriots this Sunday. Granted, if Tebow beats New England in overtime at Mile High, I might have to make a status myself to sing his praises, but it is important to not overreact to what has been a pleasantly surprising player.

Tebow’s intangibles and religious stance make him that girl in high school that many girls hated, but they didn’t know why. Some people are fortunate enough to have their biggest flaw be that they have no apparent flaws. He is simply a great human being who brings his determination to the football field and ultimately achieves greatness in one way or another. Ironically enough, the only guy in the Broncos organization who actually wanted him there was soon after fired for his “poor decisions”. Josh McDaniels may not have been a great coach, but we have to say he made the right call on that one. If Jack Del Rio made that same call in Jacksonville, he might still have his job. If I had to sum up my opinion on Tim Tebow, it would be an NFL spin on an independent party. I simply see him as a good player who has a great deal of NFL potential. In five years or so, he may even be the sport’s greatest game manager. I actually feel pretty safe in predicting that future, because his mistake free and clutch style of play are exactly what he needs to never lose the game for his team and win quite a few in the process. He is currently among the NFL’s best in only one significant category, and that is winning percentage. Now if I had the opportunity to speak to Tim Tebow myself, I am willing to bet that he would not want it any other way.