Peyton's Decision

As the dust settles on the most important decision the Indianapolis Colts have made since drafting Peyton Manning, their legendary quarterback is faced with the most important audible of his career. Before taking a look at a few of his suitors, what should first be debated is whether or not the Colts even made the right decision by letting go of the best thing that ever happened to their franchise. Accepting that the franchise has entered a rebuilding era is a harsh reality to face, but in this case I believe it was a necessary evil. Manning would be owed $28 million if the Colts decided to keep him and honor his contract, which is a huge risk to take as a team that has many holes to fill. While I am sure he is still a great quarterback, the risk associated with his recent neck surgeries and the promising career of likely draft pick Andrew Luck provide the a good opportunity, if there is such a thing, to part ways with Peyton. This move was a necessary evil that will ultimately give the Colts some salary cap space to move on and, ideally, rebuild the franchise to championship form with a guy who has been touted as the next John Elway. The next destination for Peyton is an unsure one, but there are plenty of teams interested that provide different degrees of potential success. Counting down through the presumed final four candidates, and acknowledging some honorable mentions, we may not find where Manning will go, but we will see where he should go.

4. Washington Redskins: The Redskins always seem to be in the race for the biggest names, many of which end up being washed up and ineffective. If Peyton end up in Washington I would immediately fear that Manning has seen the last of his MVP days. I have them as the least desirable destination solely because the organization is a notoriously weak one. The talent is not terrible, but it is not good enough to make up for the mess that typically takes place in D.C. on a weekly basis. The defense is resilient and they have a few decent weapons on offense, but the mediocre talent level combined with head coach Mike Shanahan’s tendency to butt heads with some of his players is enough to discourage just about any prominent free agent. I have to imagine that, of the four highly rumored teams, this is a distant fourth to the remaining three.

3. New York Jets: This move would solve what seems to be the Jets’ biggest weakness right now. Mark Sanchez has continued to defy expectations, and not in a good way. After early success in his career, it has become clear that his resume is much greater than what he actually brings to the table. A few recent articles suggest that this move would actually hurt the Jets’ future. There is a slight degree of truth to this statement considering Sanchez will not likely stick around if they acquire Manning and the Jets will only have a few years of Peyton at the most. In a worst case scenario, he may become another Brett Favre and tank the Jets season after eleven games because of injury related problems. Despite the risk, I think that the Jets should do everything in their power to make this move because I argue that the Jets have no promising “future” without Manning. Outside of Revis, Harris and Keller, the Jets have no players that will definitely be good in five years or so. Their offensive line boasts the league’s best center and an elite blindside tackle but continues to allow more pressure as the season progresses. They are composed of skilled veterans like Bart Scott and underachieving young players like Shonn Greene, which suggests that their best bet is to win now. The team seems to be regressing with this roster, yet people worry about their future if they sell out for Manning. From Peyton’s perspective, however, this move makes less sense. It is a more talented roster than a few other options, but an unstable locker room and a boisterous, defensive minded head coach is not a winning combination for a guy like Peyton, who would rather stability an offensive system that is worthy of his presence. I cannot deny the awesomeness of a Manning vs. Manning, New York vs. New York Super Bowl in the Meadowlands in 2014, but I am not convinced that the Jets locker room and coaching staff is capable of making that happen, even with Peyton Manning.

2. Miami Dolphins: It is a tough toss-up between the top two destinations for Manning, and either would be a great fit. Only a few minor differences keep the Dolphins from being an ideal home. Their roster is only a step behind the Jets and, unlike the Jets, seems to actually be heading in the right direction. Reggie Bush seems to finally understand what it takes to be a franchise running back and I believe that Brandon Marshall and company make up the most underrated receiving core in the league. Watch as no name guys like Hartline and Bess become reincarnations of what Garcon and Collie were to Peyton. Their defense plays hard and with a high draft pick they can add another key player. The only thing that keeps the Dolphins from the top spot in this countdown is the inexperience of new head coach Joe Philbin. If Manning wanted an unproven head coach, he would miss Jim Caldwell considerably more than I am sure he does. The Dolphins have all of the pieces around him and a pretty desperate need for a QB, but even the smallest speed bump would derail a team’s chances when competing with the ideal home for Peyton Manning.

1. Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals have every good and attractive element that the Dolphins have, with some additional benefits. For one thing, Ken Whisenhunt is a proven head coach and offensive genius who has already taken an aging veteran quarterback to a Super Bowl with his new team. Kurt Warner ended the drought in Arizona, making the team relevant again. Peyton Manning has an opportunity to do the same and then some in a stadium with great weather and a retractable roof on the off chance that it rains, which Miami cannot provide. In addition to this, Larry Fitzgerald could reclaim his spot as one of the league’s best receivers, a title that Kevin Kolb has endangered. The Cardinals, if you ask me, can ride their late season momentum into next season, winning seven of their last nine game and defeated both the 49ers and Cowboys in tightly contested battles. The exclamation point of the Arizona appeal is the escape from excessive hype that pollutes both New York and Miami sports. While the Dolphins are a slight favorite for most analysts, Peyton does not strike me as one to take his talents to south beach.

Honorable mentions: If a team like the 49ers or Texans decide to sign Manning despite the fact that they both have good but not great quarterbacks, they basically guarantee a Super Bowl appearance. In my opinion, they are the two teams that can become the best teams in the league with the unnecessary but potentially monumental decision to add an elite quarterback. The Seahawks and Broncos can make some noise but I do not believe that either are talented enough to elevate themselves over some pretty tempting options. The fact that less than about 25 teams are seriously considering this move is just sad because Peyton Manning is one of the few players that immediately makes a bad team into a good team, a good team into a playoff team, and a playoff team into a champion.

Why are we still terrible?

As Saturday night’s NFL blowout reached halftime, I decided to check in on my Knicks to see if we were putting up any fight against the Thunder in Oklahoma City. Facing arguably the NBA’s best team without star Carmelo Anthony is certainly a losing battle, but there were moral victories to be had and hey, you never know. Upon tuning in to MSG, I was met with the horror that inspired this article. You know it’s bad when Brady’s beatdown on Tebow was the best thing on TV at that time. The first thing I saw, naturally, was an 89-59 deficit in the third quarter. I immediately reasoned out how this was possible. Both our offense and defense have been struggling and we are without our best player. However, the next layer of disgust really put my emotions over the edge. The jersey numbers of our five men at that moment were 17, 16, 32, 9, and 44. Casual basketball fans would not likely guess who any of these guys are on a quiz, and I would estimate that religious Knicks fans would get about two correct. In order, the players representing the Knicks at that given moment in time were Jeremy Lin, Steve Novak, Ronaldo Balkman, Jared Jeffries, and Jerome Jordan. It is somewhat common to give the substitute players a few minutes in the fourth quarter during a blowout (winning or losing), but this was not far past halftime. This was not an example of taking a knee to mercifully end a game; these are guys that actually get minutes. These are possible rotation guys, and that’s scary. That lineup makes Bill Walker and Josh Harrellson look like Carmelo and Amare. For reasons we will dive into, the fact that the Knicks are currently 6-6 is unfortunately great news.

The Knicks are traditionally terrible on defense, but it seemed that the addition of Tyson chandler would make them two things: willing and capable of playing defense. The basics are necessary before you become a great, or even a good defensive team. They have shown that they may be both of these, but their idea of defense is sadly contrary to what we immediately think of. They foul people early and often, which is not exactly good defense. The Knicks are 15^th in opposing points per game, which is not that bad, and places us right in the middle. For a team that is accustomed to bad, mediocrity is a gift. Chandler plays hard and is a quality anchor, but we have yet to see that attitude become contagious. Once Dallas caught this disease they almost immediately won a championship, so it is something to look forward to. The still struggling defense might just be an issue of cohesiveness. This is their only issue that I believe can fix itself over time. Until then, what little defense they play has been a display of “hacking and whacking”, as Clyde would say. The problem is that one or both of our star players are benched within six to ten minutes of play because he picked up two quick fouls. These early losses contribute to the Knicks’ offensive struggles at the other end of the floor, which are even more troubling.

While it still takes criticism, the Knicks have a defense that is serviceable and can win many games with the offense that they traditionally bring on a consistent basis. The problem is that while the defense has taken one small step forward, the offense has regressed one giant leap. The foul trouble mentioned earlier does not help but is not the leading cause of death for D’antoni’s system. What made him a good coach in Phoenix was one man, Steve Nash, the point guard. Having weapons for him was nice, but he was what made it work. The Knicks now have just about everything but that one essential element. Not having a franchise guy like Chris Paul or even serviceable point guard like Raymond Felton last year has led to absolutely no ball movement and a series of one on one possessions. Even our top heavy talent cannot overcome that. Toney Douglas was the first starter but made quick work out of losing his job. He now acts as a sparkplug off the bench who has lost his shooting touch (a bold combination). Both he and Landry Fields have been turnover machines at mass production. One saving grace has been Iman Shumpert, the rookie we picked too early who seems to actually be a good idea so far. He hustles more than anyone else on the team, plays the second best defense to Chandler and is surprisingly an efficient scorer. So how did coach D’antoni screw this one up? He made him the next franchise point guard, which is clearly not his role. Granted, I may not have the better option, but I would rather identify every good player we have, keep him in his role, and experiment with the remaining slots. Let Bibby and Douglas fight over the point guard role until Baron Davis takes it from both of them. I like to think he is the long term answer for this season, but only time will tell.

Attacking a couple of individuals identifies the Knicks’ problems just as well as the teamwork related issues. First victim is Amare Stoudemire; I am both a fan and fantasy owner of the man they call “Stat”, so his struggles are well documented with me. Most fans or analysts would draw his problems since the Melo trade back to his injury problems, but they should know better. Here’s a guy who has not been healthy since High School and basically plays with one eye. Despite all this he was a strong MVP candidate up until we acquired Carmelo Anthony. I cannot tell whether his problem is with the dual superstar wielding system, or the fact that he has not had a decent point guard feeding him the ball since that trade went down. He is not a selfish player or person, so I lean towards the absence of a point guard. For this reason, he has to get over it, accept that receiving the league’s best scorer was worth getting rid of a few decent players and start creating his own opportunities. He has as good a skill set as any big man in the NBA; very few power forwards are as capable of creating their own shots. Once Davis returns, he will hopefully be reintroduced to quality passing, but until then he needs to fine tune his own game.

The second target is Mike D’antoni, a guy I do not usually pick on because more than any other coach in sports, I feel his pain. He gets more visibly frustrated on the sidelines and I completely understand it. When Carmelo walking off the court for either a breather or foul trouble basically means you can no longer play well, a coach feels helpless. However, while I sympathize with his reactions, he is only doing half of his job. He identifies their problems, which is no more than what fans do, and then he fails to do anything about it. They have lost consecutive games to terrible teams, which coaches should not let happen. They have flirted with 30 point losses in consecutive games, another coaching sin. He may not have the easiest job in the world, from their embarrassing lack of depth to the high expectations, but he has to at least keep this team focused enough to win the games that they should win against teams that they should beat. My realistic expectations as a Knicks fan require that we beat bad teams and simply show up and play respectable basketball against good teams. We are not a championship roster yet, but we have to start showing signs that we are even close.

Playoffs?!

The NCAA football bowl season has been exciting, but in my personal opinion, the main purpose of these glorified exhibition games is to maintain my appreciation for our NFL playoffs. Using a conventional post-season format where a playoff tournament determines the league’s champion is something that the average sports fan takes for granted. Before we get too into a conversation for another day, the events most deserving of our attention in the world of sports are the NFL playoffs that begin next weekend. Our first set of matchups includes Bengals at Texans, Lions at Saints, Steelers at Broncos, and Falcons at Giants. Each individual game contains unique elements and dynamics that will set the stage for the remaining playoff rounds. Any given Sunday might be the most insightful three words in sports, and of course anything can happen, but a projected path through the NFL playoffs can’t hurt our chances of guessing how things play out.

The first game taking place on Saturday includes a tale of two surprises. The Texans were projected to be talented as always, but few singled this year out as the turning point season, where they would finally get over the hump and into the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. This history, however, did not come without a price. Mario Williams, Matt Schaub, his backup Matt Leinart and at least a part of Andre Johnson have been lost for nearly the entire season. With all due respect to T.J. Yates, who has done a solid job at keeping Houston afloat, the Texans are clearly vulnerable as they become introduced to post-season play. The Bengals, on the other hand, surprised just about everyone with their success. Rookies Andy Dalton and A.J. Green built on top of the strong foundation laid down by a good defense and running game. During the pre-season, analysts discussed the probability of Cincinnati having the worst offense in football, which was quickly put to rest. What makes the Bengals a questionable playoff team is their record this year against teams that eventually made the playoffs, which is 0-7. They have beaten one winning team this year (9-7 Titans) and built their good record by beating up on the teams they should have beaten. Despite these statistics and the fact that they will be playing on the road, I believe that the Bengals will get their first quality victory at the most essential time. The Texans simply suffered too many injuries that took a championship caliber roster and reduced it to a first round departure.

When Saturday night comes around we will witness what should be an absolute assault unless the Detroit Lions manage to outscore the Pistons that night. If nothing else, this game will be a highlight reel with more exciting plays than we will see in any other first round matchup. The Detroit Lions began this season on fire but abruptly cooled down and settled for the last playoff seed. Fortunately for them, the Packers were not going to let them in as anything but a wildcard anyway so if they return to the early-season Lions, they have not lost much in the grand scheme of things and can beat anyone. The Saints just missed out on a bye week and have not changed much from the Super Bowl days, except for a noticeable step backwards on the defensive side of the ball. Neither defense is stellar, but Detroit’s is absolutely terrible and Drew Brees knows how to make any coverage look bad. Matt Stafford and company are one of the few offenses that can actually keep pace with New Orleans, but they are much more likely to make costly mistakes that will allow the Saints to pull away as the game develops. Both teams will light up the scoreboard, but once the Lions start giving the ball away and committing foolish penalties, the Saints will not look back. Then again, the Saints were even more of a lock for last year’s opening playoff game and were devoured by beast mode, but I have faith in Drew Brees for what should be a decisive win.

The other NFC showdown is a tough one to look at because of the nature of one of the participants. The Atlanta Falcons infiltrate the Meadowlands to take on the New York Giants, whose fans must be comparing this team to the one that won a most improbable and incredible championship not so long ago. Their record is underwhelming, but for the past couple of weeks, the pass rush and offensive production are so similar to that of the miracle Giants of the 2007 season. While Eli’s career year and the team’s overall play recently is tough to argue, I will try because I expect a narrow Falcons victory here. The reasoning behind my lack of faith in the Giants lies behind the analysis of these two epic wins. After losing five out of six games, the G-Men defeated the Jets and the Cowboys in consecutive games. Both of these opponents, while good on paper, proved that they were pathetic throughout the crucial end of this regular season. Miami and Philadelphia showed the world that beating these two teams right now is not exactly the most impressive accomplishment. As pessimistic as it is, I think any competent team would have completed the comeback that the Cowboys failed to reach last weekend, which the Giants tried so hard to give away after becoming completely stagnant on offense. I would ride the wave of Big Blue momentum if the Falcons weren’t such a formidable opponent. They define offensive balance and have a defense that is stingy enough to bring out Mr. Hyde from Tom Coughlin’s Dr. Jekyll. This is the week’s toughest call for me because Eli can out-gun Matt Ryan any day and their defensive line is fearsome, but I cannot go against the balance that the Falcons bring as a team. They have no clear weakness unless a team is just too good to beat, which the Giants are not. In the big picture, neither team is at the Super Bowl level, but either team is capable of a monumental upset of one of the top contenders.

Back in the AFC, Tim Tebow awaits his judgment day as a limping giant comes to town. The Broncos have been a curious case this season that ended in a standoff with the Raiders over who wanted to make the playoffs less. The magic of Tebow Time has taken a break and ever since Tom Brady’s flight to Mile High, Denver has been awful. Their offense resembles a bad High School Team and their defense, while talented, cannot carry the team without help. Until Matt Prater can increase his kicking range from 59 yards to about 80, I do not see how Tebow and company can score very many points. While the road ahead for the Broncos is a tough one, their opponent’s flaws and overall misfortune will help them out. The Steelers were dealt serious blows throughout the end of the regular season. Defensive stars Aaron Smith (who I barely consider on the team anymore) and Lamar Woodley have struggled to stay healthy. On top of this, underrated safety Ryan Clark has a rare blood condition that cannot tolerate the air in Denver, so he will likely miss the game as well. On offense, Ben Roethlisberger is still immobile from his ankle injury, Rashard Mendenhall is done for the season with a torn ACL and multiple linemen have gone down, including the excellent center Maurkice Pouncey. This is most problematic for a team that already can’t block anyone. These are by far the two teams that are least prepared for the playoffs and they are both lucky to be facing each other because in my opinion, they would each be a guaranteed loss against other opponents. In a battle of something has to give, I think that my Steelers simply have too much talent and can overwhelm the Broncos on the road. Tim Tebow should not fare well against this year’s number one defense and top rated secondary. Defensively, the Broncos will hold their ground but receivers Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown will make just enough plays to keep things moving. I have the Steelers winning but they cannot win a second playoff game without a healing worthy of the lord and savior’s attention. As a Steelers fan, this reminds me so much of the 2007 team that limped into the playoffs in a similar fashion and lost the Jaguars. Due to the weakness of our opponent, I say the Steelers win a game that becomes irrelevant one week later.

The teams waiting in the wings as spectators are the Packers, Patriots, 49ers, and Ravens. To me the AFC picture is relatively clear. Through personal bias and common sense, I have been anti Joe Flacco for some time, but the team around him and a weakening conference has become too much to deny. If my winners proceed to this round, the Steelers will be limbless and the Bengals will still be somewhat mediocre. Both teams will have advanced due to the weaknesses of their opponents. It is tough to watch the two teams I hate most become the two best teams in the AFC by far. The Patriots can give Baltimore a great game, especially in New England, but they have not won a playoff game since before the one Giant loss, they refuse to play any defense and Tom Brady has quietly been a slow starter lately. He gets heated up as the game goes on and leads impressive comebacks, which Ray Lewis and company will not allow. Flacco can play his way out of the playoffs at any time, but he is hopelessly spoiled by a great defense, running game and offensive line. He deals with next to no adversity throughout the course of a game. People used to hypothetically say that the Pats only needed Brady and head coach Bill Belichick to win. Now that this has become a reality to some degree, New England is finding out that they were sadly mistaken. The Ravens’ only losses this year were to teams that surprised them when they were not mentally ready to play well. Of their four losses, only one was to a barely winning team (9-7 Titans). I mean this all as a compliment, however, because they have gotten up for every big game and play to the ability of their opponents. The playoffs are the only time when playing to your opponents is a good thing, and they should pick apart a relatively weak AFC en route to a Super Bowl appearance.

The NFC road is much more competitive and tough to get through. If I had to pick a horse, I would follow my personal MVP vote and give the Who Dat nation the best chances. I love what the 49ers have done, but Alex smith cannot be hidden anymore when he has to keep up with Brees, Rodgers, Manning, Stafford, and Ryan in his conference playoffs. With one of the league’s best defenses, the 9ers would slow Brees down better than most others, but slowing him down means about 28 points, which I think Smith is not capable of in the post-season. It is tough to not love Green Bay but their defense has been so pitiful that it is also tough to crown them champions. The Saints bring that same offensive firepower, if not more, but also bring a decent defense that will provide slightly more resistance. I said throughout the season that the rest of the league was doomed because the Packers’ defense would wake up; remember how excellent this same group was as recently as last season. While this could still happen, they failed to wake up for 17 weeks so I will not assume that they will all of a sudden show up now. If I have to throw a Super Bowl matchup out there I have the Saints playing the Ravens for the Lombardi trophy in February. Of course the Saints could choke in consecutive wild card rounds or get outscored by Green Bay again; the Ravens could fight another losing playoff battle against the Steelers or watch a signature Brady game winning drive. In the NFL playoffs nothing is predictable. We also don’t have experts vote for champions or leave results to advanced mathematics; we watch the champions go into battle themselves and truly find out who is the best team in football after a brutal grind of a three or four game journey. While we may be surprised, let’s pick our horses now and hope for our favorite teams to rise above and spoil our predictions. As always, the NFL playoffs will be a hell of a ride.

Battle: New York

Luckily for New York fans, the NFL playoffs start early this year. Between inconsistent play and a few inexcusable losses, both the Giants and Jets have backed themselves into a corner and must win their remaining games in order to keep control of their own destinies. If the Giants lose, they need the Cowboys to lose out in order to win the division, which includes a finale between the two teams. They have no wildcard hopes. The Jets, on the other hand, have no hopes of winning the division. If they lose, they hand control of the last wildcard spot over to the Bengals. While it is not necessarily true, the winner of this game will likely make the playoffs, and the loser will likely miss them. This game qualifies as possibly the most important Jets vs. Giants game in history, and might be the biggest game played in MetLife stadium until the 2014 Super Bowl. Now that we have established the importance of this contest, who will win?

Just before this season began, I wrote up an article previewing these two teams and their chances. I believed that while both teams had considerable issues, they were both strong enough to make some noise and the Jets were slightly better off. Now the Jets are one game ahead as these two teams fight over which gets to escape mediocrity. As I said then, the Giants have the more dynamic offense but the Jets have the much better defense, and neither offense is nearly consistent enough to be considered elite. Rarely do things go according to prediction, so I do feel the need to point this out, but never has there been a more unpredictable game. Due to the Jekyll and Hyde nature of seemingly every facet of both teams, no one really knows not only who will win, but also what kind of game will it be. Eli Manning has put up some extraordinary numbers that put him in the top 5 quarterback conversation, and the Giants cannot shut down any quarterback entirely so Mark Sanchez has a chance to build on what has been a career year. With Shonn Greene running the ball well lately, the Jets offense can get moving and we may have a shootout on our hands. Despite all this, Darrelle Revis and company still boast one of the league’s best secondaries, and on the other side of the ball Jets Right Tackle Wayne Hunter cannot physically block anybody so the Giants famous pass rush may feast on Sanchez. Therefore, this game could also be a defensive struggle. Since basically everything can go either way in this game, the winner will be the team that can simply plug up the most holes in their questionable play, to say the least. It is an anticlimactic deciding factor, but it will determine their fates nonetheless.

Back in September I identified the Giants’ flaws to be the turnover ratio, and they have done a pretty good job at limiting their key mistakes while still throwing all over the field. On the Jets side, I said their problems were the heavy limitations of their quarterback and also their head coach Rex Ryan, who has opened up the playbook slightly and Sanchez is actually having a pretty good year. While Eli has kept a relatively clean slate and Sanchez has been on his way up, both teams have slipped. Last week, we saw both sides of New York football revert to their signature problems. Their regressions have led to nothing but concern over their ability to win future games. Fortunately for both teams, they now play each other, so something has to give. If the game opens up early and becomes a shootout, I think the Giants have a clear advantage. Their defense may be bad, but Sanchez is not good enough to torch any defense for thirty something points by himself. He needs help from his defense to win, which is not the case with Eli. If the game is a low scoring and close one to the end however, I give the edge to the Jets. I used to value pass rushers over pass coverers, but in this new age of offenses quarterbacks can get rid of the ball in less than two seconds if they really want to. The few times my Steelers got pressure on 49ers QB Alex Smith, he had already gotten rid of the ball. The only way to keep the ball from receivers in modern football is to make sure they are never open, which is what the Jets are best at. Eli will not find an open receiver on Revis island with the game on the line, and the G-Men no longer have the running game to compensate and make up for this. Sanchez, on the other hand, will be given few, easy, and quick throws, most of which will be off of play action. Even a clear path through Wayne Hunter wont be enough to consistently get to him.

Coach Rex Ryan readied his troupes by calling this game a “battle for New York supremacy.” While this comment was made in typical Rex fashion to build hype and help the public forget their embarrassing loss to the Eagles, I do believe he is exactly right. The Giants reminded New York that the city belonged to them when they beat the Patriots in the greatest Super Bowl of all time. However, their grip on the city has slowly loosened with every disappointing season and the Jets have climbed to their sinking level with consecutive AFC championship appearances and their effectively arrogant demeanor. The best tie breaker of all is the game we will watch later today: Jets vs. Giants, winner take all.

I despise guessing scores but this one is too important to pass up. 20-23 Jets (OT)

NBA Season Preview

Dirk and company will unofficially team up with the rest of the NBA for a second straight season to prevent the seemingly inevitable: a Miami Heat championship run. There may be a few new faces in the tier of highly competitive teams this year, and a few familiar faces may see the end of their run. The western conference representatives are preparing their latest defenses for what has been a new millennium of western supremacy. At the same time, a few beasts in the east are planning to shift the balance of power in their favor. With a great opening set of games just days away, the Christmas season will bring answers to our questions and speculations about this abbreviated NBA season. While we can only guess so much about the upcoming year, the NBA is traditionally the most predictable of the major sports. We may be able to draw up the 2011-12 blueprint right now, or at least outline the big contenders from each conference.

Picking the Heat to win the eastern conference again is typical for a reason. Three superstars were able to essentially wing it and take their team to game six of the finals despite a lack of on-court chemistry. Between two primary ball carriers, no depth whatsoever, and how seldom they utilized what little post presence they had, the system itself was not a good one at all. Despite all this, the sheer talent of their “Big 3” led to human highlight reels and getting to the free throw line at an absurd frequency. This year, they return with another off-season together under their belts and the quiet addition of veteran Shane Battier. He will provide quality defense to what was already the league’s best defensive team and, more importantly, the clutch shooting that they so desperately need. Battier is a nice contrast to the series of useless veterans who agreed to minimum salaries just to hop on the Miami bandwagon with the hopes of finally winning a ring. If the Heat can fix even a few of their many imperfections, they will remain clear favorites.

It is tough to talk basketball without rambling on about the Heat at some point, so for this I do apologize. Yes, all those things will make them formidable again, but there are a few teams that will not let them simply walk into the finals again. First of all, the only thing scarier than the increasing cohesiveness of the Heat is the maturation of MVP Derrick Rose. The Chicago Bulls are by far the most complete team in the east and are just as good defensively as Miami. Offensively, they will need a much bigger contribution from Carlos Boozer as a right hand man and Rose can still be their top scorer. I have nothing against scoring point guards as long as they can also distribute when necessary. Rose has to avoid becoming either reckless or selfish with the ball. There is so much left to his game, such as perimeter shooting and better passing, yet he has already won an MVP. No team can beat Chicago if Rose reaches his full potential.

It has become popular to predict the demise of the Boston Celtics, and I cannot even fully disagree with this after the embarrassing effort the put forward in the playoffs last season against Miami. Their roster is ancient and their front office must be some degree of insane after trying to trade away Rajan Rondo, who is now their best player. However, one major factor makes me think that these Celtics might be the best we have seen since their championship. They are the one team in the league that is actually happy about the NBA lockout. Every year, despite their age, they have gotten off to great starts. Progressive fatigue eventually kicks in and they slowly get worse towards the end of the season. This year, a shorter season might avoid what has become a routine downfall. I will not remove the Celtics from the elite category until they actually have a bad season because their leadership and talent is strong enough to overcome their obvious obstacles. Oh and God forbid Rondo actually learns how to shoot, in that case we’re all doomed.

The New York Knicks could really go either way but their problem is very simple. It would have been great to land Chris Paul, which has been the big plan for some time now, but unfortunately we simply had nothing to offer New Orleans because, like Miami, the Knicks roster is very top heavy. You have your superstars followed by barely serviceable supporting pieces. Adding Tyson Chandler was actually the biggest move made, in my opinion, by any team this off-season. Some people say he was overpaid, but I say you can’t put a price on defense, which is essentially what we bought. The simple problem facing the Knicks is that they don’t play any defense, and Chandler might just be the guy to fix that. Defense is a contagious art; Kevin Garnett set off a chain reaction in Boston once he arrived, and this case might be a similar situation. It has been a long time since a team won a championship without a good point guard, but my jury is out on Douglas, who I think will emerge as the starter over Bibby and Davis. It is a concern, but not one that can’t work out well for New Yorkers. The Knicks already have the best front court in the game, and if the backcourt develops they will become one of the league’s elite teams for years to come.

The western conference has the reverse dynamic of the east; one young team is battling against three old teams. Teams like the Lakers, Spurs, and Mavericks are all on the thin line between end of their prime and past it. They will all drop out of the elite teams at some point, but whether or not that point is this season remains to be seen. I always have faith in what Kobe has left in the tank, but I am beginning to fear the worst for one reason. What has always driven Kobe and the Lakers is that despite winning so much, they still are the hungriest team in the league to win another championship. Towards the end of this past season, they surprised me with such a disappointing effort. I suspect this hunger may be running out, and if this is true their old age and decreasing talent will begin to show. Phil Jackson may have seen this before any of us and made his departure a timely one. The Spurs are even older and showed that while they still execute well and can win games, they can be beaten by younger and more athletic teams. The Mavericks lost a key piece in Chandler and one of my pet peeves in basketball is forcing a power forward to play center. Dirk is a great scorer but was labeled soft until he did not have to be the biggest man on the court. Pau Gasol has a similar dynamic with Andrew Bynum, who gives him the freedom to avoid opposing centers. This leaves the Thunder, who seem to be the inevitable team to inherit the western conference. The only question is do they take over this year or sometimes in the next two, but I think they are ready now to make the jump over the legends that surround them.

It is tough to cover everyone but I would say we came close, at least in terms of the serious contenders. In my opinion, one notable team was left out from each side. The Magic are nothing without Dwight Howard, whose heart is clearly not in Orlando. In the west, the clippers made a big splash signing CP3 but gave away much of their nucleus to get him. Power forward Blake Griffin is now their biggest player with Kaman gone, which you now know I am fundamentally against. Paul will shine as a Clipper but does not have much more around him than he did in New Orleans, so I cannot expect much more success from the team that is still the younger brother in Los Angeles.

Overall, I think that a complaint about the NBA’s lack of parody is a joke. Yes, there is a shortlist of teams that can win it all, which would never happen in the NFL, but it’s not nearly as bad as having two or three super-teams. This was such a concern going into CBA negotiations, but if it takes this long to analyze the major contenders for this year’s title, the league is in good shape. If your fanhood was not represented here, then you may as well start cutting players to clear salary cap space for the free agent class of 2016 or something; it’s what my team put me through for about four years, and hopefully it’s finally going to pay off.

Tebow Time

A young Denver Broncos quarterback and Florida Gators legend has found an interesting place among the NFL’s top stories this season. In a year graced with an undefeated defending champion, a tight end destroying records in New England and four quarterbacks on pace to break Marino’s single-season passing record (Brees, Brady, Rodgers, E. Manning), Tim Tebow has somehow worked his way into more top stories on ESPN than anyone else. This demonstrates how the only figure more potent in the media than a great player is a polarizing player. Between his unconventional playing style and his off-field persona, Tebow is either hated or loved by both fans and analysts. While coming up with a verdict on Tebow as a player is hard enough, today we will face the even tougher challenge of establishing a middle ground.

The Tim Tebow haters have used valid fundamental logic to create excessive and eventually mindless criticism. First let’s acknowledge a few points you will often hear from Tebow’s opposition. He is obviously not as good a passer as the elite NFL quarterbacks, however I have trouble finding what is so terrible about someone who is less accurate than Tom Brady because it describes an alarming majority of the league. It may also be true that even the second tier guys can out-throw Tebow. Despite his lack of glamour or style points, Tebow is simply more effective than most players when it comes to a few crucial elements of football. Two areas where the game is either won or lost are the turnover ratio and fourth quarter play. If you are not going to be the most prolific passer, you better hang on to the ball. Tebow has scored 14 times this year (11 passing, 3 rushing), as opposed to only two turnovers this season. If you are on the offensively challenged side of New York fans, you are used to a quarterback who not only fails to be prolific, but also is accustomed to costly turnovers that sometimes decide games. Tebow is also the NFL’s highest rated passer after the seven minute mark in the fourth quarter. He may begin the game with high school level passing, but after the third quarter he will rise again. I would bet that Dallas fans, despite their offensive production, would love to have a guy like that to prevent so many late game collapses.

I may defend Tebow in debate against those who simply hate him just to hate him, or because someone like him as a person is just too good to be true, but at the same time anyone talking him up too much and hash tagging Tebow Time makes me sick. Excessively praising Tebow is like occupying Wall Street, there’s a halfway decent point to be made there but you need to stop because you’re making the reasonable fans of your idea look stupid. Superman does not wear Tebow pajamas and yes, Chuck Norris would mess with him if he wanted to. Tebow’s success this year deserves more of a pie chart of credit. Sports writers are so eager to distribute blame for tough losses, but the same should be done for acclaim after a great win. Tebow does play an essential role, but so does running back Willis McGahee or a rapidly improving defense. Against elite competition, Denver will not have the chance to pull off some late game heroics. Sadly, it will take a full four quarters of Tebow Time to defeat Tom Brady and the Patriots this Sunday. Granted, if Tebow beats New England in overtime at Mile High, I might have to make a status myself to sing his praises, but it is important to not overreact to what has been a pleasantly surprising player.

Tebow’s intangibles and religious stance make him that girl in high school that many girls hated, but they didn’t know why. Some people are fortunate enough to have their biggest flaw be that they have no apparent flaws. He is simply a great human being who brings his determination to the football field and ultimately achieves greatness in one way or another. Ironically enough, the only guy in the Broncos organization who actually wanted him there was soon after fired for his “poor decisions”. Josh McDaniels may not have been a great coach, but we have to say he made the right call on that one. If Jack Del Rio made that same call in Jacksonville, he might still have his job. If I had to sum up my opinion on Tim Tebow, it would be an NFL spin on an independent party. I simply see him as a good player who has a great deal of NFL potential. In five years or so, he may even be the sport’s greatest game manager. I actually feel pretty safe in predicting that future, because his mistake free and clutch style of play are exactly what he needs to never lose the game for his team and win quite a few in the process. He is currently among the NFL’s best in only one significant category, and that is winning percentage. Now if I had the opportunity to speak to Tim Tebow myself, I am willing to bet that he would not want it any other way.

Like Clockwork: 602

There are very few players who have clearly distinguished themselves as the greatest of all time at his or her respective position. The level of both regular and post-season greatness needed to achieve such an elite title is almost unheard of. Mariano Rivera took over the Yankees closer position with big shoes to fill. His illustrious career from that point on made John Wetteland’s 50 saves in 1996 (7 of which were in their championship playoff run) one of the greatest personal seasons to be quickly forgotten. The numbers don’t lie with Mo; his 2.22 ERA through over 1200 innings has left hitters in a state of complete and utter confusion for fifteen strong seasons. Putting Rivera’s career into perspective is no easy feat, but no one has to. In this case, in depth appreciation will do.

Mariano’s weapon of choice has been a product of his machine-like delivery and production. His cutter has the ability to saw an opposing bat in half, and moves in on left handed batters so violently that many switch hitters have opted to bat right handed against him. Right handers don’t have much luck either as the cutter runs away from them. The consistent success and effectiveness of using just one pitch doesn’t make much sense; a batter who knows what’s coming should have the advantage. But Mo suspends logic by finding the loop hole in an MLB swing. While his velocity has taken a slight hit in his later years, his delivery and precision are unlike anyone else in baseball. Consistency is the one word to describe Rivera and how he has been unaffected by the wear and tear of a long pitching career. As a result of this gift, Yankee fans are exceptionally spoiled when it comes to their team’s 9^th innings. I am as good an example as any, it never occurred to me that 9^th inning leads aren’t safe at all. The few saves that Rivera blows every year are devastating because the game is assumed to be over. For many, Metallica is the opener to the post game show. As Mo’s career inches closer and closer to its final trick, I have become more and more awestruck by what he brings to our team. Even more importantly, I no longer take it for granted because it has become clear that what he has done is not normal or routine; it is extraordinary.

Mariano embodies what it means to be a New York Yankee. From his performance to his overall demeanor, he is a true professional. The image of Jorge Posada literally pushing Mo back into the center of the diamond symbolizes the mystery behind how one can remain so humble despite such consistent dominance. I would note that his unassuming and gracious personality is unlike the majority of five time champions who carry a sub-1 ERA in the post-season, but I’m in no mood to search for another guy who possesses those numbers. No man has ever slammed so many doors shut, all while holding one open to keep his team’s championship hopes alive for years. When he finally does retire he will be as missed as any to have played the game of baseball. While they will breathe a much needed sigh of relief, even fans of other teams will miss Rivera. It is not every day that a fan of any given sport can watch the greatest of all time take the field and do what he does best. Mo will be missed one day, but not yet. After all, who knows the age at which that cutter becomes ineffective? Either way, I am happy the last man to ever sport a 42 jersey every day in baseball has done the honor such justice.

But let me clear up one misunderstanding. Mo did not just become the greatest closer of all time. Truthfully, the greatest closer of all time now has the most saves. To sum it all up, Mariano is the closer of all closers. He is the exclamation point on the thrilling sentence that is a Yankee game. After watching a star studded and powerful lineup battle through eight innings, the crowd’s excitement begins to grow as they anticipate the most predictable yet still awesome ending in sports. The call to the bullpen. The crowd stands up. And then…enter sandman. That goofy rocker guy with the long hair in the crowd goes up on the big screen. A roar of applause greets the man himself. Then comes business as usual. Cutters painting corners; the ump basically uses them to check how his strike zone was throughout the game. A broken bat or two later, the crowd stands again for the final strike. Whether by swing or just window shopping, the final batter takes a seat. Cue music as Frank Sinatra fills the stands and the fans make their way home. And just like that, like clockwork, the sandman strikes again.