Odd Men Out: The Yankee Surplus

Late August is the best time to analyze a team’s home stretch, just as things get exciting but still before the NFL’s regular season arrives and makes all else obsolete to most fans. As the pennant race continues to heat up in the late days of August, the American League East division finds itself in a familiar situation as the Yankees and Red Sox battle for first place in the season’s final months. Their play has been nearly dead even outside of the rivalry itself, which the Sox have dominated this season by a count of ten wins to only two for New York. This result would suggest that the Yankees have been better against the rest of the league, and that if they can even play average baseball against Boston for the remainder of the year they have a good chance to finish atop the league’s best division when October comes. With such a tight race, even the smallest decision or an individual game can determine the outcome of this year’s battle for baseball supremacy. As the season progresses, one major problem has been passed down to manager Joe Girardi, but it a good problem to deal with. How he handles this issue may severely help or hurt the Bombers’ chase for an unprecedented 28^th championship.

In a league with a standard five man pitching rotation, the Yankees are fortunate enough to have six (or five and a half as I will go on to explain.) Surprising seasons from Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia have kept the Yankees afloat alongside a couple of young studs and an excellent bullpen. While the pitching has been good this year, the gap between ace CC Sabathia and the next five starters is immeasurable. There is complete uncertainty surrounding who is the number two starter for the upcoming playoff run. Most teams seek out a one-two punch at the front end of their rotation, but us Yankee fans are now accustomed to one haymaker followed by a series of surprisingly effective jabs. This immense grey area has revealed the biggest hidden blessing in baseball today. The pitching surplus has led the Yankees to unintentionally create something unheard of in modern sports and in many cases, the world: a performance-based profession. Because only one of the six was safe by the halfway point in the season, the other five have been pitching for their lives. These life or death situations have forced what is, in my opinion, the most overachieving pitching rotation in baseball. I mean that in the best way possible; this competition has been great for the Yankees and they wouldn’t be the same without it.

There is one exception that has been a flaw in this competitive system, and continues to plague a team that can’t afford any cheap losses while chasing such a formidable rival. AJ Burnett started the year as the presumed second starter in the rotation, but continued to work his way down through his many struggles and bad performances. In recent months, Ivan Nova escaped the hot seat by pitching brilliantly and while many have been awaiting the collapses of Garcia and Colon, they simply have not happened. This leaves two questionable pitchers, Burnett and long time prospect Phil Hughes. Hughes went from winning eighteen games as an all star to a terrible start to the 2011 campaign that sent him to the DL for much of the first few months. However, in his last two starts he has pitched twelve innings and given up three runs. One of those appearances was shortened due to rain interrupting a shutout against the White Sox. I view his response to landing on the hot seat as a performance worthy of the Yankees rotation. Burnett, on the other hand, has been a different story. He may not have immunity from Girardi, but he definitely has inconceivable leniency. If I got the opportunity to ask Girardi one question on the matter, it would be just how badly does this guy have to pitch to be the odd man out?

Over his last two starts, Burnett’s “hot seat performance” as we’ll call it for now, included ten and a third innings pitched and eleven runs given up. He was given thirteen runs of support in the first few innings against the same White Sox that Hughes embarrassed, but was unable to even finish the five innings required to secure a statistical win. If this is how he responds under pressure, I am dreading the day if and when he knows he is going to keep his job and grows complacent. To put it plainly, I just don’t like the guy. I don’t even like his attitude; die-hard fans will notice that he even gets worse when faced with any adversity, such as an error or bad call from an umpire. He even committed the cardinal sin of ripping off his jersey during a temper tantrum, an act reserved for the special kind of stupid found in any bad teammate. From 2009 until a few hours ago, I had as many wins in August as a starting pitcher as AJ Burnett. Being that terrible in August is the definition of how to screw up a run to the playoffs. He even did his best to foil tonight’s plans as he surrendered a lead in the 5^th inning. Luckily for him, the offense that has spoiled him for years now regained control of the game. His questionable benefit of the doubt has come from two undeserving areas. For one thing, his “stuff” has been said to be among the league’s best. The term “stuff” may be the most overrated aspect of baseball. A 95mph fastball is great until it is sent to major league hitters flat, without any movement, and is then promptly sent over the outfield fence. A curveball with dramatic movement is nice when it does not end up in the dirt or somewhere around the backstop. The other reason he is still around is because of all the numbers I could use to break down AJ Burnett, the one Joe Girardi seems to be most concerned with is $16,500,000. That is the money the Yankees are giving Burnett this season. It is a shot to the egos of both manager and GM Brian Cashman to demote anyone making that many millions.

Now that we have established Burnett’s recent history, I believe Phil Hughes has much more to offer both the Yankee present and future. It is a disservice to the team if Girardi shuffles Hughes between the rotation and bullpen until he is eventually ineffective in both, all to defend what has often proven himself to be a bad investment. Phil Hughes was the most valuable Yankee prospect for years; we refused to trade him away for Johan Santana in his prime. Since when did that same guy get treated like an expendable player to help a much less worthy veteran than an ‘07 Johan? Hughes’ numbers are bloated in a season that he spent injured in the early months; I believe they are not indicative of his ability and what he can bring to the team from this point onward. This makes Burnett’s futility slightly more difficult to define by the numbers. If you are willing to grant me the Hughes exception, Burnett’s ERA is about a full run higher than the next highest on the starting staff. Hughes can still be developed into an elite pitcher, whereas Burnett is sadly at the stage that will likely linger for the remainder of his career.

There is a reason I can rant for days about my team’s fifth starter, a position that is typically insignificant. Many teams don’t even use a fifth starter come playoff time. The reason the Yankees are different is because as mentioned earlier, we do not have two elite guys that can carry us to a championship. Ideally, a second Sabathia would appear and then the rest of the pitchers could really be anybody. The Phillies steamrolled into last season’s NLCS and ran straight into a wall as Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain led the charge of an unlikely champion. In order to compete with those teams that have multiple aces and situational hitters, every pitcher in the rotation has to be at least good. If Girardi goes the way I fear he might and continues to place his stock in Burnett, I feel as if we have one guaranteed loss per week unless we constantly light up the scoreboard. Keeping him around is essentially blind faith in him becoming the pitcher we bought, as opposed to the pitcher we have. It isn’t the worst risk in the world, but it is not one that a championship contender can afford to take, especially when someone more capable is waiting in the wings. Believe it or not, my managerial standpoint doesn’t leave AJ Burnett out completely. He can be used for long relief out of the bullpen and, more importantly, somebody needs to pie the guys in the face that hit the walk-offs.

NFL Goes Green: 2011 Free Agent Frenzy

NFL free agency has definitely lived up to our expectations, revitalizing the league immediately after the end of the lockout. While some teams have stayed conservative, relatively content with their rosters, many dove into the wildfire that continues to expand as the pre-season approaches. There have been some surprises throughout the process that has separated front offices’ men from boys and, predictably, the free agent contest of 2011 has its winners and losers. Originally, I was looking to distinguish a top and bottom five from the rest of the league. What ended up happening after evaluating each and every team showed that the majority of teams who fell on either side leaned more towards losers than winners. In my opinion, the losing franchises from this offseason currently outnumber the winners, seven to four.

Losers:

7. Packers-Due to their age and the fact that their previously injured players are basically acquisitions within themselves, the Packers seem like a champion that is more likely to repeat than any team since the peak of the New England dynasty. Being such a complete and well rounded team gives you the ability to nitpick. Two areas of possible improvement were running back and middle linebacker, seeing as Nick Barnett was released and has since signed with Buffalo. The Packers missed out on Ronnie Brown, Reggie Bush, and any other available back that could have started for them this season. Lofa Tatupu is one of the few big free agents left at this stage, and I think he would be a great fit in Green Bay. Unless they address one of those areas, this off season will remain somewhat of a missed opportunity for a team that is somehow under the salary cap, but is failing to do much about it.

6. Dolphins-Between the Patriots and Jets, the AFC East is an uphill climb for a team in the bottom half. Miami had a small window a few years ago when Tom Brady was injured and the Jets were before their time. Going from 1-15 to 11-5 was a stunning turnaround, but the beating they received at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens in the Wildcard round may have marked the end of this current team’s playoff hopes. Despite a bleak situation, there was hope this month to make some sizeable improvements. There were quarterbacks left and right that could provide help, and picking up Reggie Bush seemed like a great move to compliment Ronnie Brown. However, two problems arose: Ronnie Brown is now gone, and the QB move never happened. They are now a power running team without a power runner; Reggie Bush wouldn’t last two weeks in their current system, and I don’t consider a meeting with Tiki Barber to be any form of redemption. Unless they pull the trigger on a deal for Kyle Orton from Denver, Miami is looking at a slightly worse roster, which could lead to a much worse season.

5. 49ers-I don’t even consider the loss of two defensive starters and failure to sufficiently replace them as the problem here. In a division that allows a 7-9 champion, anything is possible. Each team is one good move away from a playoff spot. In the case of San Francisco, Quarterback Alex Smith has died nine times already and is still in line for the starting spot. Their QB draft pick is from Nevada, an atypical college offense, and will need even more time to adjust to the NFL than the usual prospects. Trading for Donovan McNabb or signing Matt Hasselbeck would have likely made them favorites to win the NFC West. Instead, they stood idly and ended up without a chair when the music stopped. Making the move to pick up Braylon Edwards would be nice, especially with Michael Crabtree injured, but this division will be won with quarterback play. Kyle Orton, as mentioned before, is the last capable QB who is also available. There isn’t enough of him to go around to each team in need, and San Francisco has done nothing to lift their division from its atmosphere of mediocrity. I would say they are the last of the minor offenders; everyone from here on out can be labeled as some form of disgrace.

4. Giants-The Giants actually kicked off the free agent frenzy, signing undrafted free agent Mark Herzlich. As a cancer survivor with first round talent, the Giants made a great move and got an absolute steal. From that point on, everything went downhill. Instead of cutting one of their two running backs (most likely Brandon Jacobs), they chose to cut two of their starting offensive linemen and immediately began restructuring the deals of both backs. While they later signed one replacement lineman, more problems appeared. The receiving core is a big question mark between Steve Smith still unsigned and the failure to sign Plaxico Burress. As if this isn’t enough, Kevin Boss is crazy enough to think he is an elite tight end and should be paid like one. In addition to this dispute, Osi Umenyiora was seeking a trade after the Giants failed to renegotiate his contract. Eventually this died down, but there is still tension. But no worries everyone, they did have time to sign David Carr. The Giants started over the cap and had to cut players, but made questionable decisions and are currently too much of a mess to even focus on making any progressive moves.

3. Bengals-Already a shaky organization, the Bengals can ill afford some tough breaks. Volatile personalities have led to frequent arrests and overall instability for a team that has enough to deal with when competing alongside the Steelers and Ravens in the AFC North. Stealing the aforementioned starters from the 49ers defense and resigning running back Cedric Benson are positive elements. In addition to this, the Bengals have recently been a team that drafts very well. However, the organization was sent spiraling when every dynamic element of their passing game fell apart. Chad Ochocinco was traded away to the Patriots; Terrell Owens was lost to free agency and will not likely be signed until September. Carson Palmer is fed up with the entire franchise and has forced an ultimatum upon Coach Marvin Lewis: either to trade his disgruntled Quarterback, or watch him retire. Coach Lewis has chosen to take an integrity based stance, displaying the strong will of the team and inviting the retirement. I personally think this is a selfish injustice to the organization that is more about saving face than making his team better. There could be some serious value for Palmer on the trade market, at least a second round pick and possibly even a first.

2. Bears-Between what I believe was a massive overachievement last year and a rapidly improving NFC North, the Bears needed to make improvements this summer. Their biggest weakness was a receiving core that does little to help an already inconsistent Jay Cutler at QB. They get off to a sluggish start, signing no noteworthy players that would help their areas of need and losing two defensive starters. They then make arguably the worst move of this month of madness by trading away tight end Greg Olsen to the Panthers for a third round draft pick. Young quarterbacks and bad ones have a few things in common, one of which is frequent reliance on his tight end. Whether or not you believe in Jay Cutler, it is commonly known that he frequently resembles a bad QB; Olsen provided a security blanket. When in doubt, the biggest target that hovers around the middle of the field and has great hands and athleticism is a pretty safe bet. Losing this puts much more pressure on the weapons the Bears do have or acquire, and I do not have much faith in the decision to pick up Cowboy castaways Marion Barber and Roy Williams. They lack a number one receiver and primary target; this and Cutler’s shaky play may lead to the most stagnant offense ever led by Offensive Coordinator Mike Martz.

1. Buccaneers-As I said while writing about the upcoming free agent frenzy a few weeks ago, the Bucs were by far in the most advantageous position due to their massive total of over $50 million that they had to spend on both their own players and others to add to a young and promising roster. In arguably the best division in football, keeping up with a couple of superbowl contenders in New Orleans and Atlanta would be a challenge, but they were at the forefront of the Nnamdi Asomugha race and if he didn’t pan out well there were plenty of other moves to be made. The Bucs took the conservative route and showed everyone exactly why they will not continue to compete with the league’s best throughout the next few years. It is one thing to prioritize your own players and reserve money for renewing their contracts; my own Steelers have been doing just that. And for a team that started $10 million over the salary cap, that’s a fine idea. But Tampa Bay could start another franchise with their cap space; they could buy the LA Dodgers. There isn’t even a move to criticize here because that implies that they did anything of value, which was not the case. Wait wait…they did sign a punter. The Jets spend money they don’t even have, and this team can’t even make a move? I don’t know a Bucs fan but after seeing this attitude, I at least know why.

The NFL transaction market is not a system built for chaos, and that list of organizational futility has shown just that. Noticeably left off that list of losers were the Dallas Cowboys. Many analysts have grouped them amongst the league’s worst in this category, but I feel they cut the right players to get rid of a team salary that was well over the new cap. The team’s original position needs to be factored in when grading their results. Alongside the misguided activity and frustrating inactivity, however, were a few displays of inspiring and aggressive moves that will truly change the course of division races in favor of a few winners. These fortunate teams are few in number, but successfully navigated through the most hectic period in their managerial history.

4. Jets-As my only winner that does not involve the team in question getting any better, the Jets are in a unique position. Last year, due to the expiration of the last Collective Bargaining Agreement, there was actually an uncapped year in which any team could spend all the money they could gather. The Jets took full advantage and were the big winners of last year’s off season. While this was beneficial in many ways, it carried a long term burden. Their hands were essentially tied this summer, and their main focus had to be saving money instead of spending it. Despite this, they were frontrunners for much of the Asomugha race and were eventually able to resign players such as Santonio Holmes, Antonio Cromartie, and David Harris. This was made possible through both the unselfishness of Mark Sanchez and LaDainian Tomlinson, who were willing to take pay cuts to help out, and an overall front office mindset that fans of any other team should be envious of. Their only losses were Brad Smith, a decent player who was sufficiently replaced in the draft by receiver/returner Jeremy Kerley from TCU, and star receiver Braylon Edwards. They signed Plaxico Burress fresh out of prison who, at this stage of his career, will only be slightly worse than Edwards in his prime and will even be a better red zone target. The fact that the Jets were able to maintain the overall caliber of their team despite the previous summer’s splurge makes them an incredible accomplishment.

3. Patriots-I am not the biggest fan of assuming a risky move is a good one just because Coach Bill Belichick made it. It is the low degree of risk that makes their two big moves so efficient and effective. They traded for Chad Ochocinco from the Bengals and Albert Haynesworth from the Redskins. If I own another team and the Patriots call me, I immediately hang up, because I’m probably getting ripped off. They simply know how to get the better end of trades by underpaying for talented veterans. Randy Moss was the perfect example, a 4^th round pick to the Raiders for a record setting season…I’d do that too. For whatever reason, the rest of the league lets them get away with these garbage deals. Haynesworth has the work ethic of a sloth and Chad has become a bigger gimmick than talent. But since they paid so little for these guys, they can just cut them if they don’t work out well. There is no risk and such a high reward because they both have pro bowl history and potential.

2. Panthers-For the eight or so years that I have been watching football, I have never seen a team so unhappy with finishing last in the league. The Panthers could have easily let their own free agents escape and accepted the harsh reality of simply being a bad team. Instead, they immediately worked towards resigning John Beason (the biggest beast in the league that no one knows enough about), Charles Johnson and Deangelo Williams. With the new CBA, rookie QB’s are no longer grossly overpaid, so Cam Newton doesn’t cost nearly as much as a Sam Bradford or he-who-shall-not-be-named (Jamarcus Russell). Using this extra money, the Panthers also made the move to trade for Bears tight end Greg Olsen. As I said earlier, rookie QB’s love a good tight end, and the Panthers also picked up Jeremy Shockey earlier this year. Due to the competitiveness of this division, these moves may not help their position among their rivals, but they will win them more games and make them a better team. Who knows, maybe one of this year’s surprises is the Panthers finishing third in the NFC South ahead of the stagnant Buccaneers. As a matter of fact, I’d like to crown that as my first prediction I may regret later, one of my favorite lists every year. I just feel that so much of a team’s potential can be seen through the attitude of the management, and the willingness as an organization to both improve and compete.

1. Eagles-I considered trying to find a way to put Philly anywhere other than number one on this list but that would just be contrary for the sake of being contrary. It may be obvious but it is also true: The Philadelphia Eagles cornered this year’s market. To put this in perspective, they added half a defensive line with a pro bowler and a super bowl champion (Jason Babin and Cullen Jenkins). They spent themselves into a secondary surplus with the best cornerback combination in the league. It started by ripping off the Cardinals and sending an overrated/perennial backup quarterback away for arguably a top ten cornerback and a 2^nd round draft pick. Then, they shocked the sports world by also signing Nnamdi Asomugha for much less money than he was expected to go for (5 years/$60 million). By the way, they still have Asante Samuel. They signed Vince Young to back up Mike Vick; once he’s injured their system remains the same due to the similar skill sets. They signed Ronnie Brown, the most underrated player on the market, to solve the short yardage problem that they have had for about a decade. As a former franchise back, he agreed to a one year, one million dollar contract just because he sees a championship ring in their near future. They signed right tackle Ryan Harris in a quiet yet brilliant move that will protect Vick’s blind side and may save their season if he keeps him safe. The hype will be this team’s only downfall; once they were crowned a Dream Team by the media their chances took a bit of a shot. Despite the challenges provided by such moves that will test their chemistry and mental toughness, the Eagles have without a doubt won the free agent contest of the ages.

One of the many things that make the NFL great is the competitive balance that levels the playing field. Football is the only sport where there are no shortcuts and a championship cannot be bought. Unlike the Miami Heat, the Eagles haven’t essentially clinched a ring; they are still just chasing one. The free agent frenzy has been great fun, but in the grand scheme of things will not determine the superbowl champion. The Steelers and Packers were boring but will be just fine. The Patriots will be great with or without their poorly conditioned fat man and the Titan of Twitter. The real determinant of greatness will be as it always has been, the strength and execution of the 32 NFL systems. With that said, this unique few weeks has been a crazy second half of summer to remember.